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re: MLB Trade Rumors: 07/31/17 Darvish/Cingrani to Dodgers, Kintzler to the Nats
Posted on 7/13/17 at 7:57 pm to WestCoastAg
Posted on 7/13/17 at 7:57 pm to WestCoastAg
Now you're just speaking out your arse.
1
Posted on 7/13/17 at 7:59 pm to papz
He has literally been worth negative WAR
Posted on 7/13/17 at 8:01 pm to WestCoastAg
Not to mention his FIP is sky high, not even room for regression to the mean with the ERA. Likely going to go up
Posted on 7/13/17 at 8:35 pm to texastiger38
Are the Blue Jays still shopping Josh Donaldson? Read last week him to St. Louis was a possibility.
Posted on 7/13/17 at 9:05 pm to BowlJackson
Not unless someone blows them away
Posted on 7/13/17 at 10:22 pm to tduecen
quote:
[W]e’re a lot more selective than we’ve been in the past,” Friedman said. “Part of that speaks to our organizational talent level, at this point, as well as the depth behind it. But also, the culture that has been created among this group of players — it’s something that’s special. I can’t really see us messing with that, short of doing something that makes an incredible amount of sense to us.”
Posted on 7/14/17 at 2:49 am to texastiger38
quote:
Not to mention his FIP is sky high, not even room for regression to the mean with the ERA. Likely going to go up
Teheran's ERA has outperformed his FIP by about a full half run a year over his career. He has outperformed his xFIP by even more. Outperforms his peripherals consistently every season. Nothing to indicate regression is coming.
Not a fan of fangraphs using a predictive stat in pitcher WAR either btw but that's a different story.
He hasn't been good but his FIP is pretty meaningless.
Posted on 7/14/17 at 7:57 am to volfan30
One of the guys covering the Cubs says Kevin Gausman would make perfect sense (they face Gausman this weekend in Baltimore).
Ken Rosenthal connects the Cubs to Christian Yelich too. He also mentions the Cubs being interested in Tigers starting pitchers Derrick Norris and catcher Alex Avila.
Ken Rosenthal connects the Cubs to Christian Yelich too. He also mentions the Cubs being interested in Tigers starting pitchers Derrick Norris and catcher Alex Avila.
This post was edited on 7/14/17 at 7:58 am
Posted on 7/14/17 at 7:58 am to volfan30
quote:
Not a fan of fangraphs using a predictive stat in pitcher WAR either btw but that's a different story.
FIP is typically a better predictor than ERA for future ERA (although there are some outliers), but it isn't really a predictive stat. It tells what actually happened in regards to the main things a pitcher controls--strikeouts, walks and homers allowed. It just assumes pitchers have no control of balls in play, which obviously isn't true, but ERA assumes pitchers have pretty much all control over balls in play, which also is obviously untrue.
This post was edited on 7/14/17 at 8:00 am
Posted on 7/14/17 at 8:10 am to The Seaward
quote:
FIP is typically a better predictor than ERA for future ERA (although there are some outliers)
Agreed 100%.
quote:
It tells what actually happened in regards to the main things a pitcher controls--strikeouts, walks and homers allowed. It just assumes pitchers have no control of balls in play, which obviously isn't true, but ERA assumes pitchers have pretty much all control over balls in play, which also is obviously untrue.
I agree that there are flaws in both, and maybe I didn't state my position very clearly. My argument is that ERA is a better indicator of past run prevention capabilities than FIP. If a pitcher is able to outperform his peripherals on a consistent basis he should be rewarded. Run prevention is the name of the game, no matter how you get there. On the other end of the spectrum, a guy who is allowing a lot more runs than he should based on FIP at some point isn't just getting unlucky anymore.
I'm not arguing against FIP as a very valuable tool, but in something like WAR (which measures past performance, often over a large sample size) it doesn't seem like the best tool.
Posted on 7/14/17 at 8:16 am to volfan30
To put it more succinctly, I trust fWAR more when projecting ahead on pitchers but bWAR more when evaluating who had the better month/season/career etc. if that makes sense.
Just how I look at things. This is not to say I think ERA is perfect, but I prefer it over FIP as a measure of past performance.
Just how I look at things. This is not to say I think ERA is perfect, but I prefer it over FIP as a measure of past performance.
This post was edited on 7/14/17 at 8:17 am
Posted on 7/14/17 at 8:25 am to volfan30
quote:
To put it more succinctly, I trust fWAR more when projecting ahead on pitchers but bWAR more when evaluating who had the better month/season/career etc. if that makes sense.
That's very reasonable. I usually just average fWAR and bWAR as a starting point.
Posted on 7/14/17 at 8:47 am to The Sad Banana
quote:
One of the guys covering the Cubs says Kevin Gausman would make perfect sense (they face Gausman this weekend in Baltimore).
Ken Rosenthal connects the Cubs to Christian Yelich too. He also mentions the Cubs being interested in Tigers starting pitchers Derrick Norris and catcher Alex Avila.
With what? Y'all dealt your top 2 prospects (your only top 100 prospects) for Quintana
Posted on 7/14/17 at 8:50 am to Adam Banks
Gausman has been bad this year, Baltimore would be dumb to sell low. I don't know if Chicago has the ammo to land Yelich
Posted on 7/14/17 at 9:56 am to Adam Banks
quote:
With what? Y'all dealt your top 2 prospects (your only top 100 prospects) for Quintana
quote:
I don't know if Chicago has the ammo to land Yelich
Schwarber - 24
Baez - 24
Almora - 23
Happ - 22
Candelario - 23
They still have flexibility if they want to make a big move
This post was edited on 7/14/17 at 10:03 am
Posted on 7/14/17 at 9:58 am to tduecen
quote:
The Red Sox announced that they have activated struggling third baseman Pablo Sandoval from the disabled list and designated him for assignment.
Posted on 7/14/17 at 9:59 am to GynoSandberg
Cubs have a lot of good low level arms too.
Posted on 7/14/17 at 10:12 am to tduecen
How stupid were the Red Sox to not put a weight clause into his contract
Posted on 7/14/17 at 10:15 am to GynoSandberg
Yeah I was thinking more from the minor league standpoint. If they're willing to deal one of the younger guys from the major leagues then absolutely
Posted on 7/14/17 at 10:23 am to ShaneTheLegLechler
Yea their minor league looks barren now bc if you count addy Russell, Bryant and Wilson Contreras they have like 8 guys 25 and under getting MLB at bats 
I don't think they're in a hurry to make another move though. Maybe buy low on a young controllable arm like gausman or Norris if the opportunity presents itself. I think scwarber is still in play for an AL team
I don't think they're in a hurry to make another move though. Maybe buy low on a young controllable arm like gausman or Norris if the opportunity presents itself. I think scwarber is still in play for an AL team
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