re: SPCX IPO

So I’m guessing all launches should now be outside of market hours.

Have we not all seen this play out already. It’s gonna bottom out in the low 110s, and all the people saying they won’t buy until the 60s or 80s will never get in on it.

It’s gonna encounter wide swings over the next two years and then hit an inflection point once free cash flow stops being burnt and massive yoy revenues start printing. Bears are going to scatter like always or move the goal posts and the other half is going to gloat like there was never any doubt the company would be a massive money maker.

I already lived this with Tesla. The bears were utterly crushed and still kept coming back with a newly massaged story about imminent demise.

This thing was overvalued above 135, yes. Have fun waiting on a buy in at 80.

Thats a good entry point. Sorry if my response was dickish.

I’m wrong all the time about stocks, but I can’t see this thing breaking that low.

The lockup release schedule is absolutely fkn brutal over next half year.


But hey, if you bought it to "never sell it" and "hand down to your grandchildren", then why would it matter?

Anytime you hear about anyone INVESTING in something they "never intend to sell" like I heard a lot about SPCX around IPO time, that's a real cue to take a hard look at the valuation, because it's probably at a peak.

The current picture is something insane like 5% shares trading, 60% more comes open in next 5 1/2 months and then the rest with Elons opening when it hits 366 days since IPO. That's some impossibly scary shite to buy into for me; without even considering the timeline for them realizing the things it's valued on is many years away. What's the point of holding it right now other than holding bags?

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I already lived this with Tesla. The bears were utterly crushed and still kept coming back with a newly massaged story about imminent demise.

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You’re correct, but I think you’re underestimating money’s ability to evolve.

Most importantly, Elon had an eco-capitalist theme that supported him years. I doubt he can harness the counter culture needed to buoy his stock price today.

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This easily goes to $80. Mark this post. When the lock up period ends in December and all these broke paper millionaires can offload their shares that they've watched drop in half over 6 months, the selling will be so intense that this stock will be lucky to hold $60.

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I’ve seen a lot of speculation of a bottom between 50-80

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Most importantly, Elon had an eco-capitalist theme that supported him years.

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that and Tesla is a consumer facing company delivering a product that people want and enjoy. I realize starlink is consumer facing but it’s a service not a product and it’s hard to build a community based on that.

I get the feeling that spaceX going public is less about grand ideas for a spacefaring species and more about vacuuming up as much of the worlds capital as possible

anyway your point is an excellent one and I agree with you

I have 13 shares at $142 basis per. It’s not enough to worry about. I’ll just let it ride.

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No one has a clue on pricing this company. The ones on here who act like the do are lying.

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Yep. Morningstar said it should be worth $63 dollars a share. I figure they know more than me. So if it gets there I am going to buy a lot of shares. But even then it seems like a gamble.

P/S ratio over 115, that's just insanity. Price would need to half to get to sales valuations of other high growth AI peers