re: SPCX IPO

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SPCX IPOby TheOceanI will load up the truck if it goes below opening price

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truck loaded?

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the former

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I'll start buying at 65.

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banks made plenty of money though

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were pre ipo holders allowed to sell any % of their stock after the IPO?
I am sure that a small amount retail investors made money buy buying at the 150 price and selling near , or at the top. Very difficult to do and requires discipline and luck, but not impossible.

I flipped my entire IPO lot on day 2 and happily ate the 6 month IPO timeout from Fidelity

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30% shorted now.

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banks and other large tranche investors. This whole transaction has been a liquidity event. Stay away until after earnings and after the lockups expire

Nah im buying every time it gets below 120. I’m not nearly as bearish as other people in here.

I think the floor is 100-110 and institutions arent gonna let it get past, so anything below 120 is comfortable for me.

Not bullish on the stock price. Bullish on starlink, starship, and ai data rentals but only that in medium term. Also, bullish on space x company culture. Theyve been winners since I followed them as a kid. They won with falcon 1, with falcon 9, with landing rockets and refurbishing, with starlink. They’re winners and I have a hard time believing their vision and execution is suddenly going to crumble.

I think starlink is going to dominate the market in 10 years for government and commercial internet contracts alone.

Not sure about data centers in space. The cooling issue seems like a big hurdle.

And I don’t think it’s undervalued. I think anything under 120 is worth the risk of buying in and it still dropping to 100. It’s just as likely to me that the bleed out stabilizes in the 110s, the lockups release and dont collapse the stock às much as the doom amd gloom is reporting, and the company hovers in the 120s-130s until it hits an inflection point where free cash stops being burned and earnings explode.

Thats my thesis atleast. I recognize the p/s is absurd. I also think if people are right on their revenue ramp up over the next 3 years then a buy in at 120 isn’t going to look so risky.

I agree with everything you said except valuation. All the things that make spaceX compelling as a company are intact at 60 a share, and the share price has little to do with company execution. Unless you think they will continue to need to raise and dilute in which case…60 might be too high.

I believe in the theme and I believe that spaceX will succeed on an exponentially high level. But it’s not a $1T or $2T company no matter the level of success, here in 2026. There’s no point to me in owning 2036 earnings ten years early

just offering another perspective that has nothing to do with hating Elon Musk or anything like that. Those types of arguments (not saying you made them) are just dumb and emotional. I appreciate the conversation

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It’s that starship just doesn't get over the hump. It’s struggled compared to falcon 9 development

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That is not even on the ballpark of correct and an argument could be made Starship is ahead of Falcon 9 in the dev timeline.

Falcon 9 was a medium lift rocket with partial reusability. The upper stage was nothing revolutionary, while the booster was ground breaking. From initial development to reusability was roughly 10 years, roughly where Starship is today. Starship has already matched Falcon 9 in reuse of the booster. Starship is now working on phase 2, which is reuse of upper stage. To compare equally to Starship, you would need to also add Falcon 9 Heavy and Dragon development times, as Starship is Heavy lift (Falcon Heavy) and re-use for crew or supplies (Dragon).

You then add Starship is blazing a path for orbital refueling and lunar lander, something Falcon 9 cannot do.

Starship is an order of magnitude larger undertaking than Falcon 9 and ahead of Falcon 9 development.

something to keep in mind as unlock dates approach…some very big money positions have been waiting years, some many many years, for liquidity. Any bounce after unlocking is going to trigger selling. And it seems historically likely that the bouncing as the unlocks progress will be to lower highs, and lower lows.

and as retail bag holders start to abandon the mission, institutions will start hoovering up “cheap” shares. In other words, smart buying.

Buy smart when the smart money is buying