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re: Micron discussion

Posted by Boomer Rick on 6/24/26 at 4:32 pm to
Everyone on planet earth knew “earnings would be good.” Whether they would beat expectations ENOUGH to satisfy Wall Street was the question.
I agree many can’t afford it but there are many who can.
You are desperate to be the smartest and wisest in the room.
Just learning about ZETA. Basically a data broker right? I’m still evaluating the risks to the business but the growth is undeniable and the TAM is enormous.

I love All In but I think they are trying to sell some stock. There will be plenty of time to invest in data centers in space.

re: Compute Demand

Posted by Boomer Rick on 6/7/26 at 7:23 pm to
NVDA and MRVL on dips. ENPH is risky, may or may not work.

re: Compute Demand

Posted by Boomer Rick on 6/7/26 at 7:15 pm to
Once I give a symbol(s) you will go right past and push your favorites. We’ve already done this.

re: Compute Demand

Posted by Boomer Rick on 6/7/26 at 5:32 pm to
The S&P 500 sits around 7,400 today with a credible path to 10,000 by 2030. Most investors will underperform the QQQ or SPY by overtrading, chasing names after they’ve already run, or selling quality companies during inevitable corrections. Patience is the actual alpha.

re: Compute Demand

Posted by Boomer Rick on 6/7/26 at 2:25 pm to
There are a lot of ways to play it. My point is that the stronger companies will have more durable earnings than some believe. Take advantage of price discounts if they are offered in the coming months.

re: Compute Demand

Posted by Boomer Rick on 6/7/26 at 1:38 pm to
IDC projects over 1 billion actively deployed AI agents by 2029 — a 40x increase from 2025 levels — each consuming 5 to 30 times more compute per task than a traditional chatbot query.

The physical constraints on meeting that demand are largely immovable. ASML produces roughly 70-100 EUV lithography machines globally, each taking years to build. TSMC’s advanced node capacity and power grid connections carry multi-year lead times regardless of capital deployed.

The buildout doesn’t compress — it extends. Supply constraints acting as a governor on deployment speed turns a three to four year cycle into six to eight years minimum.

re: Compute Demand

Posted by Boomer Rick on 6/5/26 at 6:23 pm to
I think 920 million/month answers the question why he built it.

re: Compute Demand

Posted by Boomer Rick on 6/5/26 at 4:22 pm to
Data centers are absolutely being completed. The Colossus facility SpaceX built is operational right now, generating $11 billion annually renting to Google and Anthropic. AWS, Google Cloud, and Azure are all reporting commissioned capacity with accelerating revenue to prove it. The timing mismatch between chip delivery and facility readiness is real but temporary — it’s a sequencing issue, not evidence that data centers aren’t completing.

On power — it’s a legitimate constraint worth watching. But go watch the Dwarkesh Patel and Dylan Patel interview from March 2026. Dylan runs SemiAnalysis and does primary supply chain research. His specific conclusion is that scaling power in the US will not be a problem — the hyperscalers have the capital and incentive to solve it through behind the meter generation, gas turbines, and nuclear.

What Dylan actually identifies as the most serious long term constraint isn’t power — it’s ASML. They manufacture the EUV lithography machines that produce advanced chips, roughly 70-100 exist globally by 2030, and each costs $300-400 million. That’s the binding constraint almost nobody is talking about.

Compute Demand

Posted by Boomer Rick on 6/5/26 at 3:33 pm
Get some dry powder ready because once we get through this potential correction induced by IPo liquidity fears, possible rate hike, midterm worries and testing the new Fed chair, things may really run.

The evidence of compute constraint is overwhelming. Google — spending $175-185 billion building its own data centers and running its own TPU program through Broadcom — just signed an $11 billion annual deal to rent Nvidia GPUs from SpaceX because it still can’t meet demand. Anthropic rented the other half of the same SpaceX facility because Amazon’s $4 billion commitment isn’t enough. Microsoft CFO Amy Hood said on the record — “We’ve been short for many quarters. I thought we were going to catch up — we are not. Demand is increasing across many places.” AWS free cash flow collapsed from $26 billion to $1.2 billion in a single quarter as a deliberate bet on infrastructure that Andy Jassy says is already committed before it’s even built.

Every major AI player is simultaneously screaming compute shortage while paying whatever it takes to get supply. That’s not a bubble narrative. That’s a supply crisis hiding behind a stock market selloff.

The one legitimate pushback is cost discipline — as agentic AI bills arrive, enterprises will optimize token usage and tighten workflows. But that argument has a historical problem. Per-token costs are already falling 50-90% annually, and every time efficiency improves, volume growth has overwhelmed the savings. Enterprises don’t deploy less when costs fall — they deploy more. The internet didn’t slow down when bandwidth got cheaper.

And the most important point — the compute constraint isn’t going away. It’s about to intensify dramatically. Gartner’s 2026 analysis confirms agentic AI consumes 5 to 30 times more tokens per task than a standard chatbot. Goldman Sachs projects total token consumption multiplying 24 times by 2030. Enterprises moving from chatbot pilots to production-scale agentic deployments are discovering the multiplier only after their bills arrive. The AI buildout narrative isn’t slowing. It’s just getting started.
Ha — let’s lay this out because it’s genuinely extraordinary when you line it up:

Google — spending $175-185 billion building its own data centers, has its own TPU program through Broadcom with a long term agreement through 2031, and is STILL so compute starved it just signed an $11 billion annual deal to rent Nvidia GPUs from Elon Musk’s rocket company.

Anthropic — has Amazon committed $4 billion to them, has Broadcom building TPU infrastructure providing 6 gigawatts of compute through 2027, and STILL needed to rent the other half of SpaceX’s Colossus facility because they couldn’t get enough compute anywhere else.

SpaceX — built Colossus 1 with 220,000 Nvidia GPUs ostensibly for xAI and Grok, and immediately rented every single chip to Anthropic and Google because the demand was irresistible. Accidentally became a hyperscaler before its IPO next week.

The hyperscalers are spending hundreds of billions building infrastructure AND renting whatever they can find on top of that. Anthropic is burning through compute faster than Amazon’s $4 billion commitment can supply. Google can’t build fast enough despite the largest capex program in its history.

And someone looked at Broadcom’s earnings transcript — where Hock Tan described demand running ahead of expectations with 2028 visibility across six named customers — and sold the stock 20% because the AI chip whisper number missed by $1.2 billion.

Tell me Nvidia, Broadcom, and Marvell don’t have a long way to go. Go ahead. I’ll wait.
I was very happy to hear this. Quality metrics, not pure size, should be a large factor, if not the largest, for entry.
Kleiss was the pride of Coffeyville Kansas. He also helped sink a cruiser on June 6.
Profit taking and a massive run up pre-earnings.

The business is performing remarkably well.

re: MSFT, AMZN, GOOG

Posted by Boomer Rick on 6/3/26 at 1:32 pm to
My original point was simple — the market is currently discounting Google relative to AI capex beneficiaries like Marvell, Broadcom, and Micron. That’s an observable fact, not a negative take on Google. I own a significant position, their last earnings call was the best I’ve heard all year, and I think the capex pays off long term. A 15% IRR to $10 trillion sounds pretty good to me. Not sure what we’re even disagreeing about at this point.

re: MSFT, AMZN, GOOG

Posted by Boomer Rick on 6/3/26 at 1:02 pm to
What are you talking about? I love alphabet but the market is presently punishing/discounting them for their cap spend and capital has flowed elsewhere. That’s an observation.

Their quarterly CC was the best I’ve heard in 2026.

Personally, I think they will execute and be a 10 trillion market cap company someday (possibly in 5 years).

re: MSFT, AMZN, GOOG

Posted by Boomer Rick on 6/3/26 at 12:01 pm to
Ok, so what word would you like me to use? Discounting? JFC