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re: SPCX IPO

Posted by UltimaParadox on 6/15/26 at 8:00 am to
It is clear as day that based on commitments and loans owed by the Space X prospective. IE 20 billion of the 70 billion raised has gone to pay existing debt.

We are looking at multiple rounds coming up of dilution. Demand will need to stay peaked to absorb all the new shares coming ahead
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This whole data center/AI “race” is probably going to end up causing more problems than creating solutions.

Just my overly pessimistic view with how it’s looking so far in its infancy


I dont think businesses lying about tax revenues and job creation is anything new to get tax breaks.

The difference is clearly in the outsized impact of regular citizens anywhere near the location.

Everything is always passed on to the public to absorb for the mistakes of their elected officials
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Corpus Christi faces an ever-deepening water crisis, in response to the Observer’s public information request, the city is refusing to release the latest 2026 records of the mine’s water usage. The city is appealing the Observer’s request for those records to the Texas Office of the Attorney General, citing a section of the Texas Utilities Code that allows nondisclosure of an individual customer’s account. That’s a change from just last year, when the city provided water-usage records.


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The city’s crisis has made state and national headlines amid predictions that its water demand could exceed supply as early as next summer without additional rainfall or some other water source. With drilled wells already dry and a hot-button desalination plant tabled for now, the city is readying itself for a more serious potential Level 1 Water Emergency, which would impose even more restrictions and penalties for exceeding limits. Residents already have been living under water restrictions since December 2024, curtailing activities like lawn watering and car washes. The next phase, which might come as early as December, would enforce a mandatory 25-percent reduction for residents, businesses, and large industrial users like petrochemical refineries.


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As the Observer previously reported, the city was promised millions of dollars in tax revenue for what was originally a pair of 300-megawatt-capacity Bitcoin mines developed by the Dallas-based Bootstrap Energy. A 2022 presentation by then-Assistant City Secretary Andrea Gardner predicted revenues of $32 to $50 million over a 10-year period in exchange for the city’s de-annexation of the property, a decision that would enable Bootstrap to escape more than $70.5 million in franchise fees and sales tax on its electricity use.


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From February 7, 2023, to January 8, 2025, mine operators paid the city just $2,639 in Payments in Lieu of Taxes fees, according to records previously obtained by the Observer via the local resident’s records request.


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The most recent records obtained by the Observer through a public information request and a separate request indicate that the city invoiced mine operators in November 2025 for $1,631.65, and that operators paid $1,647.97 on March 6, well after the due date. Operators paid just $16.48 in April.


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Now, as the city stares down a water emergency, Barrera told the Observer he’s considering asking the council to terminate the mine’s 2024 IDA prior to its end date in 2039 because the agreement hasn’t yielded the original revenues promised to the city. “Of course ’24 seems like a lifetime ago, with the year that we’ve been having with regard to water,” Barrera told the Observer. “If they’re using the water, they’re using the water, but my challenge is that we haven’t seen the return on the revenue from the IDA.”


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We need to just do our due diligence. We know that these types of companies, that they use a lot of water, and we should have been more mindful of that instead of just listening to what they had to say,” she said.


Tale as old as time, give X tax breaks to a company. They weasel out of basically all commitments and the public is on the hook to pay the bill.

Texas Observer Source

re: SPCX IPO

Posted by UltimaParadox on 6/15/26 at 7:05 am to
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I’m not sure of anything, just going by what I read. I want shares of the stock, but seems like most are saying to wait until the price goes down for regular investors / holding long term.


A lot of brokers have lock-up periods or penalties for any retail that sells early on their IPO shares. So they have incentive to hold before dumping usually between 30-90 days.

Curious to see where it falls, as it was expected that almost 25% of all issuance went to retail, which is probably 5X the normal for an IPO.
Current details coming out show its more of the same. Just a 60 day cease fire to negotiate a longer term deal. Israel still fighting and we are keeping troops in the region to make sue Iran keeps up their end of the deal :lol:

Fighting through the week, announcement of a deal on Sunday before markets open on Monday. Deal never agreed to... rinse repeat

re: SPCX IPO

Posted by UltimaParadox on 6/14/26 at 8:02 pm to
Everyone on the money board is the 1% of people who out perform the index over the long haul. It's impressive how everyone on the money board sells at the peak before the latest fomo trade craters.

For the rest of us indexing is basically impossible to beat over many years.

Insert random poster bragging how they have beat the indexes by X% this year. Claiming they are an investing genius...
July 2nd, 2016 I was in Toronto and decided to catch the game against the Indians.

Indians were on a historic winning streak, the weather was perfect 75 and sunny. They even had the roof open.

Toronto wins the game, but Rajai Davis hits for the cycle

re: SPCX IPO

Posted by UltimaParadox on 6/14/26 at 7:23 pm to
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I’m totally new to all of this and I plan to eventually load quite a bit into this stock.


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But I’m also reading a lot on social media that they expect the price to eventually come down below $150.
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Explain to me like I’m 5 before I put a lot of money


I would suggest you avoid fomo trades.

I would step away and realize this is how retail always loses.

There is no such think as money you can afford to lose. That's called gambling... If you want to gamble that's up to you.

If you want to invest, I think you need to step back and understand the risks.

If you stick to low cost indexing you will set yourself up for the greatest chance of success.

re: SPCX IPO

Posted by UltimaParadox on 6/14/26 at 2:21 pm to
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cgrand


I will say if you draw a venn diagram of space X and BTC holders they would almost completely overlap

re: SPCX IPO

Posted by UltimaParadox on 6/14/26 at 11:49 am to
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I'll go ahead and invest with the world's greatest business man ever


Point made, also exemplifies why you generally never short

re: SPCX IPO

Posted by UltimaParadox on 6/13/26 at 9:17 pm to
Space X IPO is another extreme example of how a narrative drives investment and not the business.

Any reasonable person says at current IPO prices that basically all upside is priced in, but generally people don't care about the valuations at all.

Everyone is betting on short term narratives to continue. Retail sentiment drives the market and traders are willing to gamble all the way through.

This is definitely a company you pay attention to because if the narrative around it ever changes it will drop hard. Otherwise there is money to be made riding the momentum.

But I wouldn't confuse the current stock success with business success. They are not even related at this point
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Monolithic Microwave Integrated Circuits (MMICs): The company has expanded its IP into chip-level design, developing MMIC chips aimed at scaling mass-market telecommunications and cellular hardware


Everyone is selling MMIC today. Qorvo dominates this market for military applications. But they aren't the only player as I started above. MMIC is the standard, especially as AESA based radars are the frontier for new development. Skyworks etc are more for the 5g development.

Amplitech is primarily limited to extreme environments like satellite, which provides them some moat because it is expensive to get through mil standard testing for space.

That being said it limits their market because space usage is small potatoes to ground based RF solutions.

I'm just cautioning your thesis based on some addressable market that is already saturated. They aren't selling some breakthrough technology. I'm guessing their name is surfacing due to space X. But I don't see them encroaching on the dominant players in the business for standard solutions.

re: SPCX options trading

Posted by UltimaParadox on 6/13/26 at 1:56 pm to
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My son was under an NDA but he catered the SpaceX IPO party, yesterday. Let me know, today.


Did Elon leave a tip
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Their key invention is a Low Noise Amplifier (LNA)


What? LNAs have been around for decades and commonly found all over the RF space.

Skyworks, broadcom, and Qualcomm all make their own and integrate directly.

Qorvo is a dominant player in the military, with more specialized solutions. NXP, infineon, and analog devices are also huge in this space.

Amplitech is very niche, and not really someone who competes with the larger players.

It's a crowded play

re: SPCX IPO

Posted by UltimaParadox on 6/12/26 at 6:32 pm to
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our inside projections have it reaching 53k-88k


Lol
Sadly I would probably trust China propaganda over open AI propaganda. But it's close, they both can't be trusted.

Anyone who thinks these massive data centers are not driving up residential prices is naive.
BTC been around 20 years now, it's basically boomer gambling
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Nearly 16% of Gen Z hold multiple jobs—five times the rate of Baby Boomers.


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The 17 to 25-year-old demographic is the fastest-growing age group on gig-work apps.


Low job prospects, and many men didn't bother with any education past high school. Their job prospects are dim
People on the board seem to get mighty offended by the term boomers