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Posted on 6/11/26 at 8:54 pm to JoeyP239
quote:what?
When you are on investing board, keeping score is all that matters.
Posted on 6/11/26 at 8:58 pm to TorchtheFlyingTiger
quote:
Let us know how that works out for you. You have to call the timing right twice, getting out and getting back in.
To be fair this is more of a horseshoes/hand grenade type of thing. You just have to be close both times.
Posted on 6/11/26 at 9:00 pm to UptownJoeBrown
quote:
You should sell calls then if you’re so sure of your thesis. Then jump back in when the bottom happens by selling puts.
Volatility is too low to make that a good long term trade. You should only sell options when Vol is high.
Plus the spreads on long dated illiquid options suck. I’d rather just have the money making 4%.
Posted on 6/11/26 at 9:04 pm to LSUneaux
quote:
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are bullish on AI and think SpaceX could have $3 trillion in annual revenue by 2040. They also say that this could be the beginning of a very long bull run.
I’d say the same thing if I wa selling stock that I’ve underwritten.
Posted on 6/11/26 at 9:12 pm to JoeyP239
You say you’ll be “all cash.” Specifically, what are you doing with the proceeds? What kind of capital gains tax liability are you looking at?
Posted on 6/11/26 at 9:21 pm to JoeyP239
quote:
Lot of people on here are too afraid to call the top,
I’m calling it.
The market would have to have a major increase tomorrow in order for it to be at highs when you sell. The Nasdaq for example would have to go up nearly 1,400 points as it's currently down 5% from its high.
Posted on 6/11/26 at 9:21 pm to UptownJoeBrown
quote:
What would the stock price be by then? 10x or more?
Yes. Around $1300 but that is dependent on dilution, buybacks, whatever else happens in 14 years. Should be a good movie to watch!
Posted on 6/11/26 at 9:25 pm to SloaneRanger
quote:
What kind of capital gains tax liability are you looking at?
Curious about this as well. Whole lot has to happen to even make this a just wash in most situations.
Posted on 6/11/26 at 9:29 pm to JoeyP239
quote:
Plus the spreads on long dated illiquid options suck.
I always get close to the mid. Maybe have to give up .05-.10.
Posted on 6/11/26 at 9:30 pm to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
Curious about this as well. Whole lot has to happen to even make this a just wash in most situations.
lol what..,
You have to pay capital gains taxes at some point. You can’t avoid it. Plus given that the Dems likely get the house, the capital gains tax rate is about as low as we will get it
A larger tax bill is fine by me. I’d rather have a larger tax bill on a bigger gain, than a smaller tax bill on a much smaller gain
Posted on 6/11/26 at 9:30 pm to LSUneaux
quote:
Yes. Around $1300 but that is dependent on dilution, buybacks, whatever else happens in 14 years.
I’ll take 10x even if it takes 14 years.
Posted on 6/11/26 at 9:38 pm to JoeyP239
quote:
Volatility is too low to make that a good long term trade. You should only sell options when Vol is high.
Going to disagree with you here if you are going all cash because of your convictions.
Posted on 6/11/26 at 9:56 pm to JoeyP239
quote:
You have to pay capital gains taxes at some point
Meh, depending on your station in life you may decide to hold stuff and let the basis step up when you go.
Posted on 6/11/26 at 10:04 pm to SloaneRanger
quote:
Meh, depending on your station in life you may decide to hold stuff and let the basis step up when you go.
I’d rather sell Micron at 1,000 with a 15% capital gains tax rate than sell it at $600 or $400, or ultimately $120 for the same 15% rate in a few years
Posted on 6/11/26 at 10:13 pm to JoeyP239
Please give me the winning powerball numbers for next month?
Good luck to you sir
Good luck to you sir
Posted on 6/11/26 at 10:24 pm to JoeyP239
quote:make sure the teller gives you bigger bills so you can fit it all in your trifold Baw
I’m all cash until the start of 2028.
Posted on 6/11/26 at 10:27 pm to JoeyP239
Time in market > Timing the market
Typing from early retirement. In 2008-10, those three years represents 10% of my career.
We kept in/investing during that black swan market and, fast forward to today, it created ~20% of our retirement portfolio at retirement time. Result? disproportionate value.
Predict your future self will suffer from your present self’s attempt to time the market.
Typing from early retirement. In 2008-10, those three years represents 10% of my career.
We kept in/investing during that black swan market and, fast forward to today, it created ~20% of our retirement portfolio at retirement time. Result? disproportionate value.
Predict your future self will suffer from your present self’s attempt to time the market.
This post was edited on 6/11/26 at 10:31 pm
Posted on 6/11/26 at 10:41 pm to JoeyP239
quote:
You have to pay capital gains taxes at some point. You can’t avoid it.
Lowest LTCG rate is zero. Selling everything at once might trigger higher LTCG than you may have paid selling at another time paying potentially 20% and additional +3.8% NIIT.
There are plenty methods to avoid capital gains taxes:
One could gift shares to a lower income family member or friend in the zero LTCG bracket.
Donate shares instead of cash to a charity.
Harvest LTCG at zero rate in a lower income year.
Not to mention stepped up basis at death.
This post was edited on 6/11/26 at 10:59 pm
Posted on 6/11/26 at 10:49 pm to JoeyP239
That’s cool. I’ll take your MU and QQQ and VTI shares 
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