I’m selling everything tomorrow Friday June 12 2026

I just don’t understand how anyone thinks they’re that smart.

Timing the market guy is back I see

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Lot of people on here are too afraid to call the top,

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Quite the contrary: most of us aren’t stupid enough to try.

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If you were trying to kill someone, you wouldn’t stab them just one time. Especially with a small knife. It’s not like this guy was carrying a dagger. How many people convicted of 1st degree murder have ever stabbed a person just once?

Also compare it to the Idaho murders. Kohlburger stabbed those girls 67, 38,28,17 times. Clearly trying to murder them.

It’d be pretty easy for the defense to argue there was no intent that the guy doing the stabbing intended the person to die by only stabbing one time. This is backed up by the questioning with police.

To me this is clearly a case of excessive self defense. Nobody is getting a 1st degree murder charge conviction out of it. I think the only reason the SA even charged 1st degree was to accept a plea bargain lower.

If someone pushes you, and in response you stab them in the stomach one time. One, you are defending yourself. Two, it’d be hard to prove intent of murder. Intent of harmful bodily injury - yes. Bodily injury that results in loss of life, doubtful.

I’d expect the jury to find him guilty of manslaughter and he gets 10 years in prison given his age and lack of priors. There is no way he walks free.

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Also OP.

The market took another couple years to top while Netscape (lol), yahoo, Amazon, eBay, etc. IPO’d. But go ahead and panican before the new wave of tech is IPOing. I’m sure this time it’s definitely different.

And maybe it is, but unless you’re selling individual positions exiting the market is just plain dumb.

Who are you

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I just don’t understand how anyone thinks they’re that smart.

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When you’ve lived thru 1997 thru 2003, and seen gains suddenly wiped out in the matter of months, it changes your perspective. If you just bought the Nasdaq and held thru 2000, you ended up down like 80%. You never even got back to even until 2015

What’s the argument for holding? Chasing an extra 10% when the downside is more than 50%. Not for me. Holding the narrow few names that have already went up 600%? Why?

I see nothing but negatives for the next few years.

#1. All these light asset high margin mega cap tech firms that were the engine for the skyrocketing Nasdaq aren’t light asset anymore. They are heavy. Really heavy. And when you get big tech like Google having to making offerings, Oracle diluting, META diluting, - that means they aren’t finding credible private credit terms. Equity financing is never good for existing shareholders. These companies during the last 15 year run up until now have mostly funded investment thru free cash flow. Even a smaller firm like SMCI is trying to dilute 50% of their market cap. 50%! And when the SP500 and NDX is so heavily weighted to these names again why hold? Even if you like specific names outside of these, when the big boys sell off it drags the whole market with it.

#2. I Ignore the Trump Taco trade. This is fluff. The Algs run with it short term but the actual market moving data isn’t this. It’s real numbers. Interest rates likely going up. I don’t think that will kill the market, but it will kill the argument of “valuations don’t matter because money is free basically”.

#3. I think the Dems winning the House in the midterms will cause selling pressure. Kalshi has the odds at 78%. If you look at the last time the Dems won the House when Trump was Pres was Fall of 2018. That was an ugly sell off into December when valuations were way cheaper then than now. Also coincided with interest rates rising.

I have zero reasons to hold. There’s no more Equity Risk Premium to make holding stocks worth it.

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#1. All these light asset high margin mega cap tech firms that were the engine for the skyrocketing Nasdaq aren’t light asset anymore. They are heavy. Really heavy. And when you get big tech like Google having to making offerings, Oracle diluting, META diluting, - that means they aren’t finding credible private credit terms. Equity financing is never good for existing shareholders. These companies during the last 15 year run up until now have mostly funded investment thru free cash flow. Even a smaller firm like SMCI is trying to dilute 50% of their market cap. 50%! And when the SP500 and NDX is so heavily weighted to these names again why hold? Even if you like specific names outside of these, when the big boys sell off it drags the whole market with it.

#2. I Ignore the Trump Taco trade. This is fluff. The Algs run with it short term but the actual market moving data isn’t this. It’s real numbers. Interest rates likely going up. I don’t think that will kill the market, but it will kill the argument of “valuations don’t matter because money is free basically”.

#3. I think the Dems winning the House in the midterms will cause selling pressure. Kalshi has the odds at 78%. If you look at the last time the Dems won the House when Trump was Pres was Fall of 2018. That was an ugly sell off into December when valuations were way cheaper then than now. Also coincided with interest rates rising.

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I too, take my advice from Chat GPT. Nice work. ;)

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Lot of people on here are too afraid to call the top, I’m calling it. I’m all cash until the start of 2028.

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You should sell calls then if you’re so sure of your thesis.

Then jump back in when the bottom happens by selling puts.

It is. When you are on investing board, keeping score is all that matters.

Not vague “hey guys I like this stock…I might work in a position maybe”

So I put a stake in the ground.