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re: Do you think the bottom is behind or is still coming?
Posted on 4/26/25 at 7:19 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Posted on 4/26/25 at 7:19 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Still coming
1
Posted on 4/26/25 at 8:40 pm to cadillacattack
I still have some big limit buys on levels that I hope we don’t reach. If we do, then I’ll be sad.
Posted on 4/26/25 at 8:56 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
I tend to think the bottom is in front of us because I think we will experience a recession this year.
On the other hand I’m not sure a recession is even bad for markets anymore. A recession that delivers rate cuts may keep the mega cap stocks rising enough to lift the US indexes despite broad market crappiness.
On the other hand I’m not sure a recession is even bad for markets anymore. A recession that delivers rate cuts may keep the mega cap stocks rising enough to lift the US indexes despite broad market crappiness.
Posted on 4/26/25 at 9:39 pm to ned nederlander
DOGE taking 15 % cash flow out of the US economy has got to have a recessionary impact. Bottom maybe by Christmas.
Posted on 4/27/25 at 3:48 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
If the sentiment on this thread is representative, the bottom is yet to come.
Posted on 4/27/25 at 6:14 am to Jim Rockford
Don't know, don't pretend to know... Just keep doing my thing and DCAing.
If the market has an unusually large down day of over -1k, I'll throw a little more into mutual funds
If the market has an unusually large down day of over -1k, I'll throw a little more into mutual funds
Posted on 4/27/25 at 7:02 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
I think if you don't try and time the market it makes no difference.
Retirement deposits and brokerage contributions hit every 2 weeks come hell or high water.
Who cares what the market does day to day, week to week, or month to month.
People who freak out on a few % swing one way or the other need to reconsider their asset allocation.
*not specifically directed at you
Retirement deposits and brokerage contributions hit every 2 weeks come hell or high water.
Who cares what the market does day to day, week to week, or month to month.
People who freak out on a few % swing one way or the other need to reconsider their asset allocation.
*not specifically directed at you
Posted on 4/27/25 at 7:15 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
It’s too soon to know if that was THE bottom. The warning signs of a market decline were around in 4QTR24 and as we were hitting the all time highs in February, all before the tariff announcement.
Counter trend rallies in a down trend are usually very strong. There are several technical hurtles coming up that will enable this rally to prove itself and push higher. There is a gap fill at 5571, the 50 dma, and the 200 dma (which is currently near the last counter trend rally highs).
Counter trend rallies in a down trend are usually very strong. There are several technical hurtles coming up that will enable this rally to prove itself and push higher. There is a gap fill at 5571, the 50 dma, and the 200 dma (which is currently near the last counter trend rally highs).
Posted on 4/27/25 at 9:34 am to Lsut81
DCA and stay the course for the win.
Still in the camp that this will be a sideways market.
Not retiring for 10 years so market swings don’t make me panic
Still in the camp that this will be a sideways market.
Not retiring for 10 years so market swings don’t make me panic
Posted on 4/27/25 at 9:54 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
Doesn't really matter. Just keep putting 10-20% of your income into 401k/Roth IRA and let it ride.
Posted on 4/27/25 at 10:31 am to kaaj24
quote:
Not retiring for 10 years so market swings don’t make me panic
Yup, 15-20 for me depending on how much I go in or just enjoy some money right now.
Max Roth, Company Match 401, Company LTI, Company ESPP, and then throw decent amount into Admiral accounts with Vanguard.
Posted on 4/27/25 at 10:34 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
I think the bottom is behind us
Disagree. The market is going rebound as Trump moves out of the tariffs. There will still be ups and downs as stances change but I think the big rollercoaster swings back and forth in a single day are largely over.
The market isn't the economy and the economy isn't the market. At the end of the day though, a big enough change in the economy is going to force a change in the market. Because of that, I don't think we see the bottom until the consumer debt bubble pops.
As consumers fall further behind in debt payments (whether it's credit cards, student loans, car loans, whatever), that's going to cut into GDP as GDP growth has become completely dependent on debt growth and these consumers will begin losing access to credit. JerryP can lower interest rates, but he risks increasing inflation again (or, at least, keeping it from dropping) which would, at best, just stretch the consumer debt bubble out some as lower rates were countered by higher prices.
We've already seen the first warning signs with auto repossessions and 90+ day delinquencies on credit cards.
GDP growth has been almost exclusively based on federal debt growth since the GFC (except for 3 years, one of which could be argued). As consumer debt issues push GDP down, the federal government will kneejerk move to spend more money on expanding social programs which will also hamper efforts against inflation.
In other words, there's no move here that only slowly deflates the bubble so that there's no pain. This means the bubble pops and it's such a big bubble that the pop is going to drag the market down.
Posted on 4/27/25 at 10:36 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
Spy should dip back to 525-530 and bounce to 570ish within next couple weeks
Posted on 4/27/25 at 10:57 am to bayoumuscle21
If it bottomed, it wasn’t much of a dip. I still have 20% cash that I can use for short term dips…often just quick ins and outs
Posted on 4/27/25 at 12:55 pm to Bard
quote:At some point you will have to be right.
Disagree. The market is going rebound as Trump moves out of the tariffs. There will still be ups and downs as stances change but I think the big rollercoaster swings back and forth in a single day are largely over.
The market isn't the economy and the economy isn't the market. At the end of the day though, a big enough change in the economy is going to force a change in the market. Because of that, I don't think we see the bottom until the consumer debt bubble pops.
As consumers fall further behind in debt payments (whether it's credit cards, student loans, car loans, whatever), that's going to cut into GDP as GDP growth has become completely dependent on debt growth and these consumers will begin losing access to credit. JerryP can lower interest rates, but he risks increasing inflation again (or, at least, keeping it from dropping) which would, at best, just stretch the consumer debt bubble out some as lower rates were countered by higher prices.
We've already seen the first warning signs with auto repossessions and 90+ day delinquencies on credit cards.
GDP growth has been almost exclusively based on federal debt growth since the GFC (except for 3 years, one of which could be argued). As consumer debt issues push GDP down, the federal government will kneejerk move to spend more money on expanding social programs which will also hamper efforts against inflation.
In other words, there's no move here that only slowly deflates the bubble so that there's no pain. This means the bubble pops and it's such a big bubble that the pop is going to drag the market down.
Posted on 4/27/25 at 1:05 pm to Big Scrub TX
I get mad when market drops but I also get mad when market goes up. Being younger I like buying low lol
Posted on 4/27/25 at 1:29 pm to natsoundup1
quote:
If it bottomed, it wasn’t much of a dip
The worst % drop since the 30s wasn’t much of a dip???
Posted on 4/27/25 at 2:02 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
The worst % drop since the 30s wasn’t much of a dip???
what
Posted on 4/27/25 at 6:17 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
I think we have seen the bottom as far as stock market shock due to tariffs. It has leveled out and doesn’t seem Trump will increase tariffs anymore.
I expect a deal to be reached with China and tariffs will be lowered to 30-60% range and trade resumes. Then the market rips
Funny thing is if Trump only went to say 45% tariffs and left it there the market would have dropped about the same. It’s like he went over the top so when it’s reduced to where we really want it, everyone will be happy and market soars while still maintaining tariffs on China
Just left grocery store and I bought 50% more food than usual and spent same amount of money. Several items had prices lowered
The chicken littles need to chill out on here. It’s like drug addicts but addicted to cheap Chinese crap. What Trump is doing is better for long term health of the nation, we rely on China for far too many important goods that we can make ourselves. We have witnessed a massive shift in a short amount of time in trade policy and saw what? A 10% drop in the markets? Big whoop. We are actually holding strong. Let me know what y’all’s portfolio looks like in 2-3 years. I swear people forget Trumps first term was an economic success yet so many think he doesn’t know what he is doing
I expect a deal to be reached with China and tariffs will be lowered to 30-60% range and trade resumes. Then the market rips
Funny thing is if Trump only went to say 45% tariffs and left it there the market would have dropped about the same. It’s like he went over the top so when it’s reduced to where we really want it, everyone will be happy and market soars while still maintaining tariffs on China
Just left grocery store and I bought 50% more food than usual and spent same amount of money. Several items had prices lowered
The chicken littles need to chill out on here. It’s like drug addicts but addicted to cheap Chinese crap. What Trump is doing is better for long term health of the nation, we rely on China for far too many important goods that we can make ourselves. We have witnessed a massive shift in a short amount of time in trade policy and saw what? A 10% drop in the markets? Big whoop. We are actually holding strong. Let me know what y’all’s portfolio looks like in 2-3 years. I swear people forget Trumps first term was an economic success yet so many think he doesn’t know what he is doing
Posted on 4/27/25 at 6:40 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
I am tempted to take down some investments with this track up - go 65-35 equity to fixed income vs 70-30
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