- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Bellwether Alert: Duval County R +3.1
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:20 pm to John Barron
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:20 pm to John Barron
Didn't Trump win every bellweather in 2020?
3
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:21 pm to John Barron
Feeling comfy
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:21 pm to jmcwhrter
My understanding is that it is not a traditional bellwether, but since Georgia is now a swing state has become one in the sense that it often votes a pretty precise 3.0-3.5 points to the left of Georgia.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:22 pm to jmcwhrter
quote:
Didn't Trump win every bellweather in 2020?
All except for 1
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:24 pm to LSUminati
quote:correct, basically there are no more true bellwether counties considering Trump won all the traditional bellwether counties in 2020 yet “lost” the election. So the traditional definition is out the window in that the counties that vote the same as the presidential winner every year for so many elections is out the window considering they all went to Trump last election (pointing to what would’ve been a sure victory in 2020 in any other election). Hmmmmm
My understanding is that it is not a traditional bellwether, but since Georgia is now a swing state has become one in the sense that it often votes a pretty precise 3.0-3.5 points to the left of Georgia.
This post was edited on 11/5/24 at 1:25 pm
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:25 pm to Who_Dat_Tiger
It's just a bellwether for Georgia. It was accurate in 2016 and 2020.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:25 pm to Golgi Apparatus
quote:
Looks like everything’s gonna come down to how independents break.
Harvested ballots, manufactured votes, voting machines in strategic locations not working
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:25 pm to jmcwhrter
He lost Duval
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:26 pm to olemc999
Sweet Hymas drop!
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:27 pm to John Barron
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:27 pm to XenScott
quote:
It's just a bellwether for Georgia. It was accurate in 2016 and 2020.
More so than that, it fell into a range of 3.0-3.5 to the left of GA for each election dating back to 2004. In 2004 it was even with GA.
So basically, if it finished Trump +3, highly likely Trump wins GA anywhere from +3 to +6.5. If that's the case, it means the RCP averages are at worst accurate and likely UNDERCOUNTING Trump support elsewhere.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:30 pm to John Barron
I am proud to be part of that number. Wife and I both added for the good guys here in Duval.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:30 pm to John Barron
Biden showed that you don't need to win bellweather counties of you have the voting machines on your side
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:31 pm to John Barron
When are we going to start seeing real numbers? Tired of seeing independents listed with no idea how they voted.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:32 pm to CAD703X
quote:
Remember?
He was ahead when I went to bed. He wasn't when I got up. Something strange must have happened.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:32 pm to John Barron
Heck YEAH!
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:33 pm to bamabonners
The nature of what a bellweather county is, is something that changes over time.
What Duval is, isn't necessarily a *national* bellwether; its a mark for Georgia-- *Georgia* consistently votes to the Right of a Florida county that has certain demographic similarities, similar ad markets, and similarly shaped residential attitudes.
Its a positive sign. Its not an overwhelming sign-- nor is it an indicator that every bellweather is going the Trumpian direction.
Its a data point, and not an insignificant one. There's still a lot of voting to go, so all of this is still quite contingent.
What Duval is, isn't necessarily a *national* bellwether; its a mark for Georgia-- *Georgia* consistently votes to the Right of a Florida county that has certain demographic similarities, similar ad markets, and similarly shaped residential attitudes.
Its a positive sign. Its not an overwhelming sign-- nor is it an indicator that every bellweather is going the Trumpian direction.
Its a data point, and not an insignificant one. There's still a lot of voting to go, so all of this is still quite contingent.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:33 pm to John Barron
Jackson is insanely liberal democrat
These numbers are crazy if true
These numbers are crazy if true
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:34 pm to John Barron
where do these numbers even come from? Is it just exit polls? Because with voting still open, no counties can report any actual vote tally.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:34 pm to CAD703X
Remember when truckloads of mail-in ballots arrived to tally locations after vote stoppage??
Remember?
Remember?
Page 2 of 4
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News