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Started By
Message
re: Delta Wave coming to and end in Louisiana: Rt value trending down 8/5 UPDATE
Posted on 8/3/21 at 5:01 pm to Antonio Moss
Posted on 8/3/21 at 5:01 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:
know at one BR hospital many nurses are currently infected with COVID which is adding to the shortage.
Unvaccinated?
0
Posted on 8/3/21 at 5:24 pm to NOLATiger163
quote:
And does that mean that the number of new covid cases each day will continue to increase, albeit more and more slowly, from now until August 20?
That’s correct. In theory as long as it’s over 1 cases will increase.
quote:
And therefore covidestim predicts that the date on which the number of new cases per day will start going down is around August 20?
When it gets close to 1 I would expect cases to peak. I don’t think it has to be exactly at 1 because most cases aren’t even detected so r could be greater than 1 but the number of actual infections we detect could start to go down.
Posted on 8/3/21 at 5:37 pm to Kujo
quote:
Yes when you reopen things people finally interact with each other and will get sick.
They were isolated for a year and a half and finally they are in arms reach of each other with no masks and some people will get sick.
We knew this all along this was part of the model.
You isolate people and mask to stop the spike, build herd immunity, vaccinations, but regardless….whenever you open it up again, cases will rise in the short term.
It’s Like I’m sure DUIs will increase because bars are now open. “Surging DUI!!!”
When do you think things were "opened up?"
Posted on 8/3/21 at 5:52 pm to lsupride87
quote:
For reference, here is how the Rt looked it the UK for Delta
How is Rt calculated?
Posted on 8/3/21 at 6:32 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Anecdotally our ER is seeing slightly less covid this week
Still a lot but not like last 2-3 weeks
I guess they have temporarily stopped sending covid infected illegals to La. the past 7 days. This helps flatten the curve which we would not have if they would stop letting illegals into the country and busing them all over the US.
Many were sent to La.
JBE should sue the US Govt for this. Where is JBE? IS he awake?
Posted on 8/3/21 at 6:49 pm to skullhawk
quote:
I've seen bigger waves on a twerking arse.
Posted on 8/3/21 at 6:51 pm to lsupride87
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[/url]This post was edited on 8/3/21 at 6:53 pm
Posted on 8/3/21 at 6:51 pm to lsupride87
quote:
As of January, only 4.7 % of people in Israel had confirmed covid (I used jan because that leaves 6 month gap to be reinfected)
IIRC, Israel said that reinfection rates were extremely low (1%?)
As such, their data is essentially either vaccinated (40%) or unvaccinated (59%).
So in essence, 5% of the population is responsible for 59% of the caseload.
How does that equate to Louisiana?
Posted on 8/3/21 at 6:56 pm to obdobd918
People keep saying this dumb shite. How many times do you get close to illegals?
Posted on 8/3/21 at 7:08 pm to LSU1018
quote:
People keep saying this dumb shite. How many times do you get close to illegals?
Good Lord.
Posted on 8/3/21 at 7:35 pm to jimmy the leg
quote:
their data is essentially either vaccinated (40%) or unvaccinated (59%).
interesting
Posted on 8/3/21 at 7:38 pm to LSU1018
Dumbest take on illegals I've seen yet
Posted on 8/3/21 at 9:21 pm to rocket31
quote:
their data is essentially either vaccinated (40%) or unvaccinated (59%).
quote:
interesting
While the breakthroughs still occurred (or so it would seem), 90% of the population only accounted for 40% of the cases. While still significant, it certainly illustrates the effectiveness of the vaccines. The hospitalization rate is much better overall.
I have long questioned the numbers being put forth here in the US (only 1% of the hospitalizations and 2% of the cases being breakthroughs).
On another note, the area where this study occurred, while large, was not the entire nation. Not many people got COVID in the region the first go around, so it stood to reason that reinfections would be smaller. That being said, the rate was still smaller than expected.
This post was edited on 8/3/21 at 9:30 pm
Posted on 8/3/21 at 9:30 pm to LSU1018
quote:
How many times do you get close to illegals?
Pretty much daily.
Posted on 8/3/21 at 9:39 pm to jimmy the leg
So we still have no good data on what those that have gotten the virus should do? I’m still trying to understand how the mRNA vaccine has a better efficacy than having fought off the actual live virus.
Posted on 8/3/21 at 10:32 pm to Capt ST
quote:
So we still have no good data on what those that have gotten the virus should do?
Don't get the vaccine. You had the damn virus. Your body beat it. One lady showed 18 years later to have T cell immunity to the a similar virus from the early 2000s.
Enjoy the freedom.
Posted on 8/3/21 at 10:37 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:quote:That’s correct. In theory as long as it’s over 1 cases will increase.
And does that mean that the number of new covid cases each day will continue to increase, albeit more and more slowly, from now until August 20?quote:When it gets close to 1 I would expect cases to peak. I don’t think it has to be exactly at 1 because most cases aren’t even detected so r could be greater than 1 but the number of actual infections we detect could start to go down.
And therefore covidestim predicts that the date on which the number of new cases per day will start going down is around August 20?
Yeah I think we have the same understanding. So from that data, if it's correct, then Louisiana will probably hit the maximum daily new infections around August 15-20, maximum then-currently hospitalized around August 25-30, and maximum daily deaths around September 5-10, or thereabouts.
Posted on 8/3/21 at 10:38 pm to dragginass
You can see on the raw case count chart it's starting to round off too
Posted on 8/3/21 at 10:43 pm to thejudge
quote:It's possible that this depends on how "bad" you had it, or how sick you got. My BIL had it last year with mild to no symptoms, then he got it again last month and spent a week in the hospital.
Don't get the vaccine. You had the damn virus. Your body beat it. One lady showed 18 years later to have T cell immunity to the a similar virus from the early 2000s.
Enjoy the freedom.
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