re: Delta Wave coming to and end in Louisiana: Rt value trending down 8/5 UPDATE

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lsupride87

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I will say this perusing through this site on a daily basis (thanks for sharing it btw bc it’s really is some good information). What is interesting is that the Rt curves are very similar across the nation. The vast majority of the curves peak between 1.7 and 1.4 and last about the same amount of time. It also appears high vaccination states have very similar curves as low vaccination states. Obviously the hospitalizations are very different but it does seem to show the virus is still there in statistically significant #s.

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What do the numbers indicate? Is it how many people a sick person will infect?

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Yes.

If number is greater than 1 then cases increase.
Less than 1 they decrease.

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seems like you’d want lower than 1 to slow the thing down.

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We aren’t saying that it’s a good thing to be above 1. We are saying the rate of increase has peaked and is starting to come down. If this trend continues it should be below 1 in a week then the cases will start to decrease.

LDH has ICU Beds stats. It's not great, but they are not overrun in any region yet. Considering we are probably only a week away (two at most) from hospitalizations starting to ease up they'll figure it out.

Not saying it's ideal, but yes that woman is a sky screamer.

No worries…. Epsilon and Zeta are up next.

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LDH has ICU Beds stats. It's not great, but they are not overrun in any region yet. Considering we are probably only a week away (two at most) from hospitalizations starting to ease up they'll figure it out.

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Something doesn’t add up between Dr. Oneal and the LDH site. They seem to be conflicting unless LDH stats are actual beds and not available beds limited due to staff. I am hearing staffing is an issue more so than actual beds. I have no idea if staffing means Drs and nurses or orderlies and maintenance workers (still need the ability to turnover rooms from used to ready).

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Also hearing staffing is an issue more so than actual beds. I have no idea if staffing means Drs and nurses or orderlies and maintenance workers (still need the ability to turnover rooms from used to ready).

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I think it's specifically the nurses. I've heard (at least at OLOL BR) that they have plenty of doctors, but not enough nurses. They're understaffed because they can't match the pay that travel nursing pays.

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Meanwhile we're stuck with a retard sloth.

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What exactly has he (JBE) done differently than Noem?

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That didn't age too well.

TD

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If it’s nurses isn’t that a situation that you can remedy relatively quickly is you are willing to spend some $$. For the right price, I assume you can fill some of those spots from areas not impacted as much.

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I know at one BR hospital many nurses are currently infected with COVID which is adding to the shortage.

Looking at the shape of the Rt curve at https://covidestim.org/, I see that in prior waves, Rt has declined with about the same slope / rate as it increased, or maybe just a tiny bit faster.

(1) Is that correct?

(2) If that is correct or roughly correct--and based on what's at covidestim right now, which differs from what it showed just a few days ago--then the time from the last time Louisiana's Rt = 1.0--from June 11 to June 12 it went from 0.99 to 1.01--and the date of the peak was July 14-18 at 1.52, then we'd predict that Rt will get back to 1.0 somewhere around August 20; is that right?

(3) And does that mean that the number of new covid cases each day will continue to increase, albeit more and more slowly, from now until August 20?

(4) And therefore covidestim predicts that the date on which the number of new cases per day will start going down is around August 20?

Thanks for explaining it to me.

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Not saying it's ideal, but yes that woman is a sky screamer.

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Does anyone remember O'Neal fear mongering last year? This junk is her MO. She is always overly dramatic and full of crap.