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Do people REALLY not understand why you go for two after the first TD when down 15?
Posted on 9/21/20 at 9:24 pm
Posted on 9/21/20 at 9:24 pm
The Cowboys/Falcons game stirred up the national debate that occurs at least several times a year, and I genuinely have no idea why this is still a debate.
It is objective, statistical fact that going for two after the first TD when down by 15 is the right move. You want to know as early as possible whether you need two or three scores. This seems not only intuitive to me but is backed up by decades of data, which shows that teams who go for in the first time in this scenario win the game more often than those who until the second score to try. This is because teams who MISS the attempt when trying after the first score know they have to get the ball twice more and play accordingly (as Dallas did). This is opposed to teams who wait until the second score to try, at which point if they fail they’ve often played it down to the wire with too little time left and put everything on that play. There is no debate to be had here, there’s simply a right and wrong answer.
Yet every year I see fans and sports talking heads, in HUGE NUMBERS, who simply cannot wrap their heads around the above explanation. They ask “why would you do something that potentially leaves you still down by two scores” and say “you want to extend the game”, and I’m left wondering how they dress themselves successfully each morning.
I know humans in general are dumb and illogical, but this has been explained to all of these people repeatedly for YEARS.
It is objective, statistical fact that going for two after the first TD when down by 15 is the right move. You want to know as early as possible whether you need two or three scores. This seems not only intuitive to me but is backed up by decades of data, which shows that teams who go for in the first time in this scenario win the game more often than those who until the second score to try. This is because teams who MISS the attempt when trying after the first score know they have to get the ball twice more and play accordingly (as Dallas did). This is opposed to teams who wait until the second score to try, at which point if they fail they’ve often played it down to the wire with too little time left and put everything on that play. There is no debate to be had here, there’s simply a right and wrong answer.
Yet every year I see fans and sports talking heads, in HUGE NUMBERS, who simply cannot wrap their heads around the above explanation. They ask “why would you do something that potentially leaves you still down by two scores” and say “you want to extend the game”, and I’m left wondering how they dress themselves successfully each morning.
I know humans in general are dumb and illogical, but this has been explained to all of these people repeatedly for YEARS.
Posted on 9/21/20 at 9:35 pm to Roger Klarvin
quote:let’s preface that. It’s better until about 9:00 left in the fourth quarter. Any later, and it’s simply too late in the game to risk being down by two scores
It is objective, statistical fact that going for two after the first TD when down by 15 is the right move.
Posted on 9/21/20 at 9:39 pm to Roger Klarvin
I saw some people say that players will try harder knowing they’re only down 8, vs. two scores.
But they’d also try hard if they’re down 7. It’s always better to go early and I don’t get why people can’t seem to fathom that. You always want to know what all you need to do.
But they’d also try hard if they’re down 7. It’s always better to go early and I don’t get why people can’t seem to fathom that. You always want to know what all you need to do.
Posted on 9/21/20 at 9:41 pm to Roger Klarvin
Sports coaches don’t have to be smart. And often times coaches lend themselves to group think. Why don’t more teams go for two earlier in games? Why don’t teams go for it on 4th down more often?
We’re seeing shifts a little bit but just like your scenario, there aren’t objective stats/data to support why this is agreed upon “basic strategy” other than because it’s the way everyone else has always done it
We’re seeing shifts a little bit but just like your scenario, there aren’t objective stats/data to support why this is agreed upon “basic strategy” other than because it’s the way everyone else has always done it
Posted on 9/21/20 at 9:43 pm to Roger Klarvin
quote:you got a link to this study?
but is backed up by decades of data,
Posted on 9/21/20 at 9:47 pm to Roger Klarvin
I had been wondering why people didn't do it more often before.
Posted on 9/21/20 at 10:06 pm to Roger Klarvin
Show the decades of data
Posted on 9/21/20 at 10:41 pm to Roger Klarvin
Completely depends on situation, mostly where the clock is. If you are down two scores with only enough time to reasonably score twice, there is no reason to take yourself out of it before the second TD.
Posted on 9/21/20 at 10:48 pm to Roger Klarvin
Ha ha....
“So you know what you need”
If you’re down by 35 points you “KNOW” you need 36. Doesn’t do a thing to help you win.
Sorry, but being down 8 with ten minutes to go, five minutes to go, two minutes to go or 55 seconds is better than being down by nine. Perid!
If you’re down 8 and score a TD, then make the two point conversion, you’re tied. That’s the good outcome
If your miss the two point conversion, you’re down 2. That’s the bad outcome
If you’re down 9 and score a TD, you kick the PAT and you’re down 2
There is no chance for a “good” outcome being down by nine.
“So you know what you need”
If you’re down by 35 points you “KNOW” you need 36. Doesn’t do a thing to help you win.
Sorry, but being down 8 with ten minutes to go, five minutes to go, two minutes to go or 55 seconds is better than being down by nine. Perid!
If you’re down 8 and score a TD, then make the two point conversion, you’re tied. That’s the good outcome
If your miss the two point conversion, you’re down 2. That’s the bad outcome
If you’re down 9 and score a TD, you kick the PAT and you’re down 2
There is no chance for a “good” outcome being down by nine.
Posted on 9/21/20 at 11:02 pm to Roger Klarvin
Roger, I am no fan of yours...but you get an upvote for this one. The announcers were quick to point out how it is bad. I think it’s the right call. I understand the opposing view and the ‘extending the game’ logic, but I prefer the way McCarthy handled it. You need 15 points. I say go for it early. If you miss, you have X minutes to get 9 points. That means you hurry your arse up to get the next TD.
If you make the PAT, great. Now you’re down 8. You take your time on that final drive, playing for OT at best. But forcing OT down 7 is a bit easier than down 8.
If you make the PAT, great. Now you’re down 8. You take your time on that final drive, playing for OT at best. But forcing OT down 7 is a bit easier than down 8.
Posted on 9/21/20 at 11:33 pm to Roger Klarvin
Incorrect. Late in the game, you always try to keep it one possession. Not two. Then the opposing offense usually gets more aggressive and might attempt a pass (incomplete) which stops the clock. Up two possessions 99% of teams are running clock on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd down.
Posted on 9/21/20 at 11:53 pm to Roger Klarvin
2 point conversions have a higher point expectancy that extra points in the first place.
im not sure what that adds to this specific conversation, but it's something that's not brought up nearly enough.
im not sure what that adds to this specific conversation, but it's something that's not brought up nearly enough.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 3:13 am to Roger Klarvin
Stats don't cover the mental factor.
We're dealing with human beings.
Failing on that first two-point conversion is deflating.
If robots were playing, yes you are right. But humans? Giving them the idea that it's still a one possession game is more motivation than saying sorry, we're still two possessions down despite all your effort.
We're dealing with human beings.
Failing on that first two-point conversion is deflating.
If robots were playing, yes you are right. But humans? Giving them the idea that it's still a one possession game is more motivation than saying sorry, we're still two possessions down despite all your effort.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 3:36 am to Roger Klarvin
I'll argue for going for two on the 2nd touchdown.
Momentum:
- You score a TD, you don't go for two and risk killing the momentum you've just established. You kick the XP and cut it to one possession.
Mindset:
- Yes, if you fail on the two you know you need two more possessions. You also risk taking your players out of the game mentally. Being down by 8 with 3 minutes to go feels a lot different than being down 9 with 3 minutes to go. Plus, as mentioned, the play calling on the other side will change based on a an 8 or 9 point game.
(Assuming the trailing team has no TO's)
1:30 left, up by 8, 3rd and 5:
- The team that's up may not want to risk giving the ball back. They try a pass play to put it away. That gives you a chance at an interception or an incompletion. If either of those happen, you get the ball back with roughly 1:20.
1:30 left, up by 9, 3rd and 5:
- They aren't worried about giving you the ball back because they are up by two possessions, so they run it. Say they don't get it. They still punt, but now they are eating clock and you get it back with 40 seconds instead of 1:20 - and you are still down by two possessions.
And if you don't agree, well you and your data can kiss my fricking arse!
Momentum:
- You score a TD, you don't go for two and risk killing the momentum you've just established. You kick the XP and cut it to one possession.
Mindset:
- Yes, if you fail on the two you know you need two more possessions. You also risk taking your players out of the game mentally. Being down by 8 with 3 minutes to go feels a lot different than being down 9 with 3 minutes to go. Plus, as mentioned, the play calling on the other side will change based on a an 8 or 9 point game.
(Assuming the trailing team has no TO's)
1:30 left, up by 8, 3rd and 5:
- The team that's up may not want to risk giving the ball back. They try a pass play to put it away. That gives you a chance at an interception or an incompletion. If either of those happen, you get the ball back with roughly 1:20.
1:30 left, up by 9, 3rd and 5:
- They aren't worried about giving you the ball back because they are up by two possessions, so they run it. Say they don't get it. They still punt, but now they are eating clock and you get it back with 40 seconds instead of 1:20 - and you are still down by two possessions.
And if you don't agree, well you and your data can kiss my fricking arse!
Posted on 9/22/20 at 7:56 am to Roger Klarvin
What is mind blowing for me is why Atlanta went for 2 while up 19 points already. 20 is still a 3 score game at least. Had they done the PAT instead it would have at least gone to OT
Posted on 9/22/20 at 8:17 am to Roger Klarvin
Do people REALLY not understand why you go for two after the first TD when down 14?
Posted on 9/22/20 at 10:05 am to Roger Klarvin
Reading this thread almost has me convinced teams should just go for 2 after any TD.
Posted on 9/22/20 at 12:25 pm to Roger Klarvin
quote:
It is objective, statistical fact that going for two after the first TD when down by 15 is the right move. You want to know as early as possible whether you need two or three scores. This seems not only intuitive to me but is backed up by decades of data
I agree with you, but where exactly is this data? If you actually had it, wouldn't you just post it?
Edit: Looks like someone posted the data on page three. Thanks.
This post was edited on 9/22/20 at 12:28 pm
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