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re: What are the chances the timeline is all wrong on the COVID 19?

Posted on 3/18/20 at 8:03 pm to
Posted by Volvagia
Fort Worth
Member since Mar 2006
51945 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 8:03 pm to
Map is probably looking different by now, was developed millennia ago sometime in early March.



This is based from genetic data, not guess work. So any alternate timeline needs to take it in account, not the other way around.

Might it been simmering in China since Oct?

Possibly. But all hard evidence suggests the international breakout was in the public eye.
Posted by roadkill
East Coast, FL
Member since Oct 2008
1858 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 8:16 pm to
Same thing here in FL and with friends and relatives in AL - some of the folks I know that had it in December are still struggling with chest congestion - it has been circulating in the US for a few months.
Posted by Crowknowsbest
Member since May 2012
25891 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 8:17 pm to
I think it’s likely that it’s been in the US for awhile
Posted by Triggerr
Member since Jul 2013
1899 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 8:19 pm to
I think this was going around during Mardi Gras and no one realized it
Posted by AUCE05
Member since Dec 2009
42582 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 8:26 pm to
I had some shite last month and felt like I had glass in my lungs. Almost positive it was corona. I would get waves of feeling like pure shite.
Posted by Hopeful Doc
Member since Sep 2010
15049 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 8:35 pm to
quote:

Nov-Feb range and wonder if it could have been the corona instead of flu



LA has had an absolutely horrid flu season this year, FWIW. CDC stats. 144 pediatric deaths. Influenza + pneumonia death rate of 7.1% (threshold for epidemic is 7.3%).
There was a huge surge in November. It was mild but prevalent. Then it died down a bit. Then in mid January there was a big wave with some more serious cases that I saw, most of which were flu positive.

There have been quite a few significant flu negative respiratory illnesses in the last 4ish weeks. The problem is that they're all treated the same, so the test to differentiate them from each other isn't worth the $1200+ it cost to put a name on it.


At least until now...




ETA-i'll clarify the above that those flu stats are nation-wide, not LA specific, but LA has been as hot a place as any for flu this year.
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 9:51 pm
Posted by Rhino5
Atlanta
Member since Nov 2014
28908 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 8:37 pm to
Yep
This post was edited on 3/19/20 at 5:02 am
Posted by Stealth Matrix
29°59'55.98"N 90°05'21.85"W
Member since Aug 2019
7985 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 8:40 pm to
Went to NOLA Christmas time to visit my parents; my dad had a severe case of upper respiratory virus that he said he'd had for 2-3 weeks. He did a flu swab but it was negative. Chalked it up to his asthma acting quite strangely.

About 1 1/2 to 2 weeks later, I basically started getting the same symptoms. So did my wife. Endless dry cough and sore throat.. worst I'd felt in quite awhile. About 1 1/2 to 2 weeks after that, the mystery sickness began sweeping through my coworkers and the town I was working in.

If that wasn't COVID-19, I'd love to know what the hell that illness floating around could've been.
Posted by Crow Pie
Neuro ICU - Tulane Med Center
Member since Feb 2010
25416 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 8:41 pm to
quote:

I think this was going around during Mardi Gras and no one realized it
We wee working at P-66 in Belle Chase starting mid January. Had more techs by a factor of about 5 get "flu or pneumonia" that any time in our history. People were laid up in the hotel for many days and many went home because that couldn't get well after resting for 3-5 days. All the contractors had the same issue as well with sick workers at that job. Fact.
Posted by jaytothen
Member since Jan 2020
6454 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 8:55 pm to
I got a terrible cold New Year's Day. Stayed up late NYE for a bonfire so just figured it was from that. After a few days I was coughing worse then I ever have in my life. Ran a low grade fever. Had terrible chest congestion. No matter how much Mucinex or Sudafed I took could not shake it. Lasted almost three weeks. Ton of friends had it too. We all tested negative for the flu.

First friend that I knew with it flew to Atlanta to see her family for Christmas. When she got back in town she thought she was dying. She tested negative as well. Not one person I know tested positive for the flu but all had that crud.

I'd be shocked if it wasn't COVID-19. Too many people with all the same symptoms and none were diagnosed.
Posted by Rossberg02
Member since Jun 2016
2591 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:04 pm to
Dr Osterholm has said you can “date” viruses. If you have the virus in February and someone else has it in March their COVID samples can be dated and it will show the same date of originality.
Posted by Pelican fan99
Lafayette, Louisiana
Member since Jun 2013
35007 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:31 pm to
I came back to the US after spending a couple months in China towards the end of last year and was sick as shite after I got back with some crud that I couldn’t kick. I was coughing a lot and had trouble breathing but didn’t think much of it because I have asthma from time to time but I wonder if I had this crap back then. Took about 10 days until I really felt back to normal



I just figured it was some crap I picked up in the airports but who knows maybe I had this back then
Posted by uscpuke
Member since Jan 2004
5040 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:32 pm to
quote:

I came back to the US after spending a couple months in China towards the end of last year and was sick as shite

We found the a-hole that infected everybody in the US.
Posted by Kingpenm3
Xanadu
Member since Aug 2011
8982 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:34 pm to
quote:

Seems like a lot of people (including me) recall being f'ed up by something in the Nov-Feb range and wonder if it could have been the corona instead of flu.


I know a couple of people that had this experience, going to be interesting to see if any of them end up getting cov2 and testing positive now.
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 9:35 pm
Posted by SuperSaint
Sorting Out OT BS Since '2007'
Member since Sep 2007
140462 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:40 pm to
quote:

What are the chances
about 350/1
Posted by LSURep864
Moscow, Idaho
Member since Nov 2007
10965 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:46 pm to
quote:

Have to be honest, I have thought of this. I'd say maybe the two weeks post national title game, I had a wicked cough that would keep me up during the middle of the night along with runny nose and annoyingly sore throat. It would come in spurts throughout the day as well. Cough wasn't mucus or anything. I didn't check to see if I was running fever though.


I had a terrible cold with a sore throat after flying out of Nola for the Natty. It lasted until the beginning of February. I joke that it was Corona. My only problem with the theory that it’s been around longer, is we don’t have a high body count of elderly folks to suggest that.
Posted by lsufishnhunt
Member since Jun 2008
1028 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:48 pm to
I had the same symptoms - they started 2 days before the national championship game. It all lasted about 3 or 4 weeks. Initially I thought it was probably covid.

But - what about the deaths? If this thing was running rampant for weeks, surely we would’ve noticed the deaths in hospitals, nursing homes, prisons, etc. Right? Or does the news cycle not pick up on 5% (or whatever the number is) of nursing home patients dying in a 4 day period?

ETA: LSURep beat me to it
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 9:49 pm
Posted by L5UT1ger
Member since Feb 2004
2609 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:49 pm to
Four of my family of five tested positive for flu in October. Only I didn’t and only I got the flu shot. Bet that doesn’t happen next year.

Fast forward to November, on the 24th, my middle son (8), who has asthma, had to go to the ER with a terrible croup cough. Tested negative for flu after they swore it had to be flu.

Three days later, after receiving lidocaine via nebulizer a few times, he still was running fever. Took him to our pediatrician, who I respect tremendously as he is not an over prescriber and is constantly learning. He swore by looking at my kid that he had flu. Negative test. He said there had been a few lately that he thought would test positive and didn’t.

I ended up with the wicked cough thing for a while. My wife and other kids too.

Now, we hear about this and I am wondering about whether this thing has passed already.

I am not usually one to fall for conspiracies. Likely, coincidence, but who knows.
Posted by Pelican fan99
Lafayette, Louisiana
Member since Jun 2013
35007 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:52 pm to
quote:

We found the a-hole that infected everybody in the US.



it was early to mid October before all this supposedly really started
Posted by L5UT1ger
Member since Feb 2004
2609 posts
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:53 pm to
Additionally, I recall counting that there was not a single day in 30 straight where all five of my family went to school/work due to this second illness thing.
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