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What are the chances the timeline is all wrong on the COVID 19?
Posted on 3/18/20 at 6:27 pm
Posted on 3/18/20 at 6:27 pm
Does a lot of the assumptions on start time have to do with reporting from China?
Is there data on # of serious illnesses that was not linked to the flu over the last few months?
Do we think we are in the beginnings of this or more in the middle?
Is there data on # of serious illnesses that was not linked to the flu over the last few months?
Do we think we are in the beginnings of this or more in the middle?
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 6:29 pm
22
Posted on 3/18/20 at 6:32 pm to STEVED00
Seems like a lot of people (including me) recall being f'ed up by something in the Nov-Feb range and wonder if it could have been the corona instead of flu. But, I don't know if the dates match up with the reality of the spread. There were some optimistic pseudo-scientific posts about this last week, but I haven't seen them this week.
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 6:34 pm
Posted on 3/18/20 at 6:34 pm to STEVED00
Call CDC and WHO. Ask to speak with the manager.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 6:36 pm to STEVED00
It is highly unlikely China noticed COVID within the first couple of weeks. More likely it was in circulation for weeks with the long incubation period and small numbers of initially infected before they noticed. And they obviously travel like a mofo. I don't see how it couldn't have gotten around the World a lot earlier than what we think.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 6:52 pm to RougeDawg
BS
They were notified by several Drs. They did nothing but keep it quiet and try to contain it for months and they failed miserably. Now the world suffers.
They were notified by several Drs. They did nothing but keep it quiet and try to contain it for months and they failed miserably. Now the world suffers.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 6:53 pm to STEVED00
It’s wrong. First reported case was November 17th and we don’t know how long that person was symptomatic.
ETA: some speculate the virus originated around the beginning of October
ETA: some speculate the virus originated around the beginning of October
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 6:54 pm
Posted on 3/18/20 at 6:55 pm to SabiDojo
You don't know that it's wrong. If that person infected other people in November, and it went out from there and even a fraction traveled here, we'd be seeing it in December. So it's very possible it's been here for a while undetected as to what it actually was.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 6:56 pm to STEVED00
What do you have against the word "were"?
Posted on 3/18/20 at 6:59 pm to STEVED00
Everyone thought the 1918 "Spanish Flu" started in Spain because they were the first ones to report it. (Everyone else was sick, too, but they were all fighting WWI and suppressed the information for security) Turns out it started on a pig farm in Kansas. True story.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 7:00 pm to STEVED00
In both our offices at work a bug went through last week of January through first week of February.
My jokes that we’ve already been through it and can keep the office open don’t go over well. Everyday we stay open people act more and more like a kid who didn't get an expected snow day.
The catch of course is that I could be wrong. No way to know now unless we get to a point with mass tests of everyone and the virus leaves some kind of marker.
My jokes that we’ve already been through it and can keep the office open don’t go over well. Everyday we stay open people act more and more like a kid who didn't get an expected snow day.
The catch of course is that I could be wrong. No way to know now unless we get to a point with mass tests of everyone and the virus leaves some kind of marker.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 7:01 pm to Bunk Moreland
Had a very, very bad cold before Mardi Gras; in fact was still not feeling great for Thoth Sunday, but was not going to miss my favorite day of the year. I don't recall being that sick in years. Hoping maybe I had it and have a little immunity now. Stay Well.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 7:06 pm to STEVED00
Have to be honest, I have thought of this. I'd say maybe the two weeks post national title game, I had a wicked cough that would keep me up during the middle of the night along with runny nose and annoyingly sore throat. It would come in spurts throughout the day as well. Cough wasn't mucus or anything. I didn't check to see if I was running fever though.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 7:07 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
You don't know that it's wrong. If that person infected other people in November, and it went out from there and even a fraction traveled here, we'd be seeing it in December. So it's very possible it's been here for a while undetected as to what it actually was.
There is no shortage of healthcare workers that are reporting they were seeing patients with flu like symptoms, but tested negative for influenza in December, and even more in early January.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 7:10 pm to RockChalkTiger
quote:
Everyone thought the 1918 "Spanish Flu" started in Spain because they were the first ones to report it. (Everyone else was sick, too, but they were all fighting WWI and suppressed the information for security) Turns out it started on a pig farm in Kansas. True story.
LINK
quote:
More recently, experts have proposed a third hypothesis: The Spanish flu originated somewhere in northern China in late 1917 and swiftly moved to western Europe with the 140,000 Chinese laborers the French and British governments recruited to perform manual labor to free up troops for wartime duty.
Thanks again, China
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 7:11 pm
Posted on 3/18/20 at 7:12 pm to EA6B
People are acting like the virus is spreading because more and more people are testing positive but it’s just because we’re testing more and more people and only testing sick people with symptoms. It’s not because the virus is rapidly spreading. It’s already spread we’re now just figuring it out.
I really wish the media would explain this simple point instead of just blasting numbers. Because the panic caused by people not understanding that is ridiculous. And the media just keeps parroting “MORE PEOPLE ARE TESTING POSITIVE EVERY DAY!”
They leave out that’s because we just started testing people and don’t have enough tests to go around so we’re only testing high probability already symptomatic people.
This virus has been here since January at least and everyone has already been exposed. Our hospitals haven’t been overrun since January, they’re not suddenly going to be overrun now expect because of psychotic panic.
I really wish the media would explain this simple point instead of just blasting numbers. Because the panic caused by people not understanding that is ridiculous. And the media just keeps parroting “MORE PEOPLE ARE TESTING POSITIVE EVERY DAY!”
They leave out that’s because we just started testing people and don’t have enough tests to go around so we’re only testing high probability already symptomatic people.
This virus has been here since January at least and everyone has already been exposed. Our hospitals haven’t been overrun since January, they’re not suddenly going to be overrun now expect because of psychotic panic.
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 7:15 pm
Posted on 3/18/20 at 7:15 pm to HECM62
quote:
Had a very, very bad cold before Mardi Gras; in fact was still not feeling great for Thoth Sunday, but was not going to miss my favorite day of the year.
So, you are the one that spread it around New Orleans over Mardi Gras.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 7:18 pm to FlyinTiger93
Tigerdroppings identifies patient 0.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 7:19 pm to Chef Free Gold Bloom
I’ve not been sick but had a friend in January that thought he had the flu. Went to Dr and tested negative. Fever spiked to 104 two days later. Went to the ER and again tested negative for the flu. Back on his feet a few days later. If it wasn’t corona, there was another virus going around in January through early Feb that was knocking people on their arse.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 7:22 pm to HECM62
quote:
not feeling great for Thoth Sunday, but was not going to miss my favorite day of the year. I don't recall being that sick in years. Hoping maybe I had it
I’d be hoping that I didn’t have it and bring it to a Mardi Gras parade
Posted on 3/18/20 at 7:23 pm to Sus-Scrofa
quote:
My jokes that we’ve already been through it and can keep the office open don’t go over well. Everyday we stay open people act more and more like a kid who didn't get an expected snow day.
The catch of course is that I could be wrong. No way to know now unless we get to a point with mass tests of everyone and the virus leaves some kind of marker.
quote:
My jokes that we’ve already been through it and can keep the office open don’t go over well. Everyday we stay open people act more and more like a kid who didn't get an expected snow day.
The catch of course is that I could be wrong. No way to know now unless we get to a point with mass tests of everyone and the virus leaves some kind of marker.
This is exactly how I feel.
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