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RPI Projections on Warren Nolan
Posted on 4/13/26 at 9:35 am
Posted on 4/13/26 at 9:35 am
Warren Nolan has LSU projected to be an RPI 43 at the end of the season. I am simply sharing info without comment to say if I agree or disagree.
The projections have us finishing 8-7 in the remaining SEC games and 4-0 in midweek games. Giving LSU a 34-22 (14-16) record and an RPI of 43. Remaining games or series projected as follows:
VS Northwestern State - W
VS Texas A&M - 2-1
VS New Orleans - W
@ Mississippi State - 1-2
VS Southeastern Louisiana - W
VS South Carolina - 3-0
VS Tulane - W
@ Georgia - 0-3
VS Florida - 2-1
Team sheet below. Remaining games highlighted in the leftmost column.
Key:
The projections have us finishing 8-7 in the remaining SEC games and 4-0 in midweek games. Giving LSU a 34-22 (14-16) record and an RPI of 43. Remaining games or series projected as follows:
VS Northwestern State - W
VS Texas A&M - 2-1
VS New Orleans - W
@ Mississippi State - 1-2
VS Southeastern Louisiana - W
VS South Carolina - 3-0
VS Tulane - W
@ Georgia - 0-3
VS Florida - 2-1
Team sheet below. Remaining games highlighted in the leftmost column.
Key:
15
Posted on 4/13/26 at 9:36 am to mdomingue
This team will be lucky to win 1/3 against A&M and 2/3 against USC. Should sweep USC but nothing comes easy with this team. A&M is legit and may sweep us even at the box. My guess is 12-18 or 11-19 on the year in SEC play.
This post was edited on 4/13/26 at 9:37 am
Posted on 4/13/26 at 9:38 am to GeneralLee
quote:
4-0 in midweek games
Bold projection at this point
Posted on 4/13/26 at 9:38 am to GeneralLee
quote:
This team will be lucky to win 1/3 against A&M
Maybe
quote:
and 2/3 against USC
Man, you're either stupid or have an agenda against the team or coach.
Posted on 4/13/26 at 9:38 am to mdomingue
If it plays out like that, which is pretty realistic, it should be an interesting test case for the committee. Luckily for lsu, theyll be looking at alot more than just rpi this year
Posted on 4/13/26 at 9:39 am to josh336
Should be a competitive series, both teams suck arse
Posted on 4/13/26 at 9:39 am to MrWalkingMan
quote:
Bold projection at this point
They're 20-6 OOC. They just need to put everything behind them and play like they can.
Posted on 4/13/26 at 9:39 am to mdomingue
G Lee is a pretty emotional poster from what ive noticed, wouldnt pay him any mind.
Posted on 4/13/26 at 9:44 am to josh336
quote:
If it plays out like that, which is pretty realistic, it should be an interesting test case for the committee. Luckily for lsu, theyll be looking at alot more than just rpi this year
They would also have the opportunity to win a couple games in the SECT which would bolster the RPI.
ETA: Louisiana Tech beings a Q4 is surprising. Milwaukee being a SWAC level RPI is also surprising. They're really an anchor for us. Kent St is still doing really well though.
This post was edited on 4/13/26 at 9:46 am
Posted on 4/13/26 at 9:45 am to josh336
quote:
If it plays out like that, which is pretty realistic, it should be an interesting test case for the committee. Luckily for lsu, theyll be looking at alot more than just rpi this year
There are 35 at-large bids. An RPI in the 40s has a decent chance of getting you in. As a defending champ, they probably get in with that RPI alone because the committee has always had some leeway. Hosting is a pipe dream unless something almost magically changes.
Posted on 4/13/26 at 9:59 am to mdomingue
That should get us in if it plays out like that. I wouldn't feel good at all about getting in at 13-17 though
Posted on 4/13/26 at 10:01 am to mdomingue
quote:I think most know this but the actual predictions are based entirely on statistics regarding performance to-date. It’s all model driven
The projections have us finishing 8-7 in the remaining SEC games
I think the more accurate projection system is to look at the team that finished 6-9 over the easier half of its schedule that got its arse totally kicked this weekend and conclude they aren’t finishing 8-7
Posted on 4/13/26 at 10:03 am to josh336
quote:
If it plays out like that, which is pretty realistic, it should be an interesting test case for the committee. Luckily for lsu, theyll be looking at alot more than just rpi this year
I agree. I’d be interested to see how much the RPI is valued in that situation. Essentially coming down to which matters more, the good wins or bad losses.
Posted on 4/13/26 at 10:03 am to RemouladeSawce
quote:
I think the more accurate projection system is to look at the team that finished 6-9 over the easier half of its schedule that got its arse totally kicked this weekend and conclude they aren’t finishing 8-7
It’ll be tough sledding for sure. But we do get 3 of our last 5 at home which helps
Posted on 4/13/26 at 10:04 am to mdomingue
quote:
The projections have us finishing 8-7 in the remaining SEC games
That ain't happening.
The team would have to be a different team than we've seen all year. I can't come up with a plausible way that might happen.
Posted on 4/13/26 at 10:06 am to mdomingue
zero faith this team is able to sweep anyone. entirely too inconsistent
Posted on 4/13/26 at 10:08 am to moneyg
quote:
I can't come up with a plausible way that might happen.
Step one would be making sure Jeremy Dupree isn't on the umpiring crew for any of our remaining SEC series.
Posted on 4/13/26 at 10:18 am to mdomingue
Love the optimism, but there is a less than 0 percent chance this team finishes the year 8-7. We are guaranteed to lose a game we should win every week due to bad defense. Sweeping any team feels impossible. Winning 2/3 against legit competition, home or away, also feels impossible at this point.
Posted on 4/13/26 at 10:23 am to mdomingue
5-4 against A&M. State, Florida will be a tall task.
14-16 is best case. It will likely be 1 to 3 games worse than that, but I hope I’m wrong.
14-16 is best case. It will likely be 1 to 3 games worse than that, but I hope I’m wrong.
Posted on 4/13/26 at 10:27 am to Diesel88
We’re boutta go on like a 16-2 tear….
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