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Started By
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How long is Paul Skenes arm going to hold up?
Posted on 4/19/24 at 9:44 am
Posted on 4/19/24 at 9:44 am
quote:
@CodifyBaseball
Most 100+ MPH pitches thrown this year,
MLB and AAA starting pitchers:
Paul Skenes, 74
Hunter Greene, 17
José Soriano, 12
Bobby Miller, 5
4 others, 1
Dude is on another level but he's pushing the limits of the human arm. TJ surgery seems inevitable although an eventual TJ seems baked into the cake of damn near any ace pitcher these days.
Posted on 4/19/24 at 9:45 am to Lsuhoohoo
Clemens, Ryan and RJ held up just fine
Posted on 4/19/24 at 9:47 am to Lsuhoohoo
He will have TJ before age 27 or so like pretty much every other young pitcher these days. It is a fixed variable when valuing young pitching
He will likely still be a beast after it also
He will likely still be a beast after it also
This post was edited on 4/19/24 at 9:48 am
Posted on 4/19/24 at 9:47 am to Lsuhoohoo
Given his size and his frame, he may not be putting excess stress on his arm.
He may just be a fricking monster who can throw the same ball harder than dudes who aren’t built like him.
He may just be a fricking monster who can throw the same ball harder than dudes who aren’t built like him.
Posted on 4/19/24 at 9:51 am to Lsuhoohoo
Skenes is literally built different. Dudes a tank. With his frame it doesnt seem like he should have to torque his arm as much to get the ball to that speed as someone smaller than him.
Posted on 4/19/24 at 9:53 am to Pedro
He makes it look effortless
Arm injuries are a concern for all pitchers these days though
Arm injuries are a concern for all pitchers these days though
Posted on 4/19/24 at 10:01 am to Lsuhoohoo
quote:
TJ surgery seems inevitable
based on what? modern fairytales?
Posted on 4/19/24 at 10:03 am to notsince98
Based on the fact that pitchers throw every pitch at max effort, w/as much velo as possible, which puts undue strain on the elbow/arm.
Posted on 4/19/24 at 10:14 am to Cosmo
quote:
Clemens, Ryan and RJ held up just fine
All considerably less consistent velocity than Skenes.
Clemens sat at 96-97.
Ryan touched 100 but didnt hit it consistently.
Posted on 4/19/24 at 10:17 am to Lsuhoohoo
maybe since I see him pitching for a long long time and UCL injuries are common to Pitchers.
but I dint see it being something inevitable in the next 4 years.
but I dint see it being something inevitable in the next 4 years.
Posted on 4/19/24 at 10:22 am to ShaneTheLegLechler
quote:
He will have TJ before age 27 or so like pretty much every other young pitcher these days. It is a fixed variable when valuing young pitching
He will likely still be a beast after it also
Big difference with Skenes is his usage isn't nearly as high as most pitchers. People forget he was a catcher and didn't throw a lot of innings as a pitcher until last year. He wasn't even a starting pitcher until his second year at Air Force and didn't start pitching at all in high school until his sophomore year but only made 2 appearances. He was then a relief pitcher, largely, his junior year of high school. His senior season of high school was cancelled due to COVID. His freshman season at Air Force he only threw 26 innings and his sophomore season 85 innings. So his arm doesn't have nearly as much mileage as most pitchers in pro or even college ball.
Not saying TJ is out of the question seeing the prevalence these days, but I'd say his risk factor is probably lower than most.
This post was edited on 4/19/24 at 10:23 am
Posted on 4/19/24 at 10:23 am to Lsuhoohoo
Yeah, I remember when I had to have rotator cuff surgery because I threw the ball so hard that I basically threw my arm out. ??. But I was young when I did that, around 23 I believe and I was small, nowhere around Paul Skene's size. But I was constantly throwing a ball whether it was baseball or football as a QB, I was always throwing and not just throwing, but throwing hard. I didn't want to be rocked out the park by the opposing teams I faced, so I threw my fastballs really hard.
Posted on 4/19/24 at 10:23 am to dnm3305
quote:
All considerably less consistent velocity than Skenes.
Clemens sat at 96-97.
Ryan touched 100 but didnt hit it consistently.
pitch speeds were tracked much differently back then, though. Ryan def threw as hard as Skenes. Ryan was also kind of a unicorn
This post was edited on 4/19/24 at 10:24 am
Posted on 4/19/24 at 10:25 am to Lsuhoohoo
The maintained velo tells me that he’s not over throwing, it’s just what he naturally generates. He may eventually have arm issues, but I don’t think it’s a given.
Posted on 4/19/24 at 10:28 am to RB10
quote:
The maintained velo tells me that he’s not over throwing
yeah, his endurance was something I'm not sure I've ever seen. In the Tennessee game in the CWS, his last pitch, number 123, was 100 mph. Dude never got tired. And this was consistent throughout last season. He nevr showed signs of fatigue or losing velocity. I think Jay just had him on a strict pitch count and pulled him when he hit it.
Posted on 4/19/24 at 10:39 am to SteelerBravesDawg
quote:
Based on the fact that pitchers throw every pitch at max effort, w/as much velo as possible, which puts undue strain on the elbow/arm.
Do you actually believe skenes is throwing every pitch max effort in the minors rn tho when noone is hitting him anyway?
I think he'd be hitting 103 if he was throwing max effort
Posted on 4/19/24 at 10:41 am to boosiebadazz
Frame really doesn’t matter. Look at some of these hurt right now
Ohtani is a tank
Gerrit cole is a tank
Spencer Strider is a tank
So on & so on
Ohtani is a tank
Gerrit cole is a tank
Spencer Strider is a tank
So on & so on
Posted on 4/19/24 at 10:45 am to SteelerBravesDawg
quote:
Based on the fact that pitchers throw every pitch at max effort, w/as much velo as possible, which puts undue strain on the elbow/arm.
Have you watched Skenes? I know you’re not an LSU fan, so genuinely asking. Because he throws effortlessly. He doesn’t throw max effort at all.
Posted on 4/19/24 at 10:48 am to Lester Earl
quote:
Frame really doesn’t matter. Look at some of these hurt right now
Ohtani is a tank
Gerrit cole is a tank
Spencer Strider is a tank
So on & so on
And it took JV till he was 37 before having TJ surgery.
Posted on 4/19/24 at 10:55 am to LaLadyinTx
Throwing 100mph fastballs is less damaging to an arm than a pitcher that throws more sliders than anything else
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