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Started By
Message
re: Southeast Severe Weather: January 8-9, 2024
Posted on 1/6/24 at 5:04 pm to notiger1997
Posted on 1/6/24 at 5:04 pm to notiger1997
i stopped crack years ago. Was getting too expensive
1
Posted on 1/6/24 at 5:17 pm to deltaland
quote:
I’ve seen slight risks way overperform before
Yeah, I remember an EF-3 tornado hitting the community of Fultondale, AL (just north of Birmingham) back in 2021 on a day that started out with just a marginal risk.
Posted on 1/6/24 at 5:22 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Great. Just in time for my kids first day back after the break. I’m sure they will cancel due to a leaf blowing too fast.
Posted on 1/6/24 at 5:37 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
The wind here in bham took a dead tree down in my yard last night. Ironically it fell up hill. If it had gone left it would have taken the power and cable lines to the house. Missed everything. Gotta cut it up tomorrow and work on another dead one before mondays weather.
Posted on 1/7/24 at 7:44 am to Roll Tide Ravens
OP updated.
Posted on 1/7/24 at 7:46 am to deltaland
quote:
I’ve seen slight risks way overperform before
You also post nothingburger while tornadoes are going off..so
Posted on 1/7/24 at 11:41 am to Roll Tide Ravens
Interesting setup for southern LA tomorrow. The area looks to be pretty well socked in with rain and non-severe thunderstorms from late morning onward, until the front starts to push into the area. That greatly limits instability, especially in the lower levels, and the flow isn't strong enough at that point to drag the dews far enough inland to be a problem early. Dews stay sub-60° into the early evening. Meager low level lapse rates should also hinder any storms becoming severe early.
That said, things change a bit going into the night. The earlier activity pushes north of the area, and southerly flow increases. This does help to increase moisture and instability just prior to the front. That's noted in the SPC discussion as the most likely time period for supercells to form. Lapse rates improve, and there won't be a lack of shear. The opportunity for discrete cells should be brief, just a couple of hours after 7/8pm, as the front closes in. Then, the QLCS will blow through with a severe wind and embedded rotation risk.
Farther east, towards Mobile, should be a similar story. However, this is the type event that can cause that area problems. Everything likes to spin down there, so a tornado threat ahead of the front, and with the line, needs to be watched.
That said, things change a bit going into the night. The earlier activity pushes north of the area, and southerly flow increases. This does help to increase moisture and instability just prior to the front. That's noted in the SPC discussion as the most likely time period for supercells to form. Lapse rates improve, and there won't be a lack of shear. The opportunity for discrete cells should be brief, just a couple of hours after 7/8pm, as the front closes in. Then, the QLCS will blow through with a severe wind and embedded rotation risk.
Farther east, towards Mobile, should be a similar story. However, this is the type event that can cause that area problems. Everything likes to spin down there, so a tornado threat ahead of the front, and with the line, needs to be watched.
Posted on 1/7/24 at 11:59 am to Roll Tide Ravens
Meh.
BIG WEATHER often hypes things up. Hopefully all goes well, but we'll see.
BIG WEATHER often hypes things up. Hopefully all goes well, but we'll see.
This post was edited on 1/7/24 at 7:41 pm
Posted on 1/7/24 at 12:03 pm to LegendInMyMind
Just got the bump to Enhanced with a 10% hatched for tornadoes and a 30% area for wind.
ETA: It is gonna be a windy one tomorrow for most of LA, MS, AL, and parts of TN. Gradient winds will be kicking, with non-storm related winds pushing severe levels.
ETA: It is gonna be a windy one tomorrow for most of LA, MS, AL, and parts of TN. Gradient winds will be kicking, with non-storm related winds pushing severe levels.
This post was edited on 1/7/24 at 12:07 pm
Posted on 1/7/24 at 12:10 pm to FLTech
quote:
I really missed the days when a thunderstorm was well, a thunderstorm and not some stupid fricking level 1-5 weather event.
To circle back to this....
On one end of the spectrum we have opinions like this. On the other end, we have the people who claim "No warning!" despite days of advanced warning. Often times, after tragedy strikes, the ones from the former group join the latter. Quickly they go from, "Why all the fuss?" to, "Why the hell didn't you warn us?". It happens time and time again.
Posted on 1/7/24 at 12:16 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
On one end of the spectrum we have opinions like this. On the other end, we have the people who claim "No warning!" despite days of advanced warning. Often times, after tragedy strikes, the ones from the former group join the latter. Quickly they go from, "Why all the fuss?" to, "Why the hell didn't you warn us?". It happens time and time again.
I say just let people be responsible adults and pay attention to the weather forecasts and warnings.
Posted on 1/7/24 at 12:18 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
I say just let people be responsible adults and pay attention to the weather forecasts and warnings.
Personal responsibility? Nah......we can't have that.
ETA: And what that guy was whining about was the very idea of "forecasts and warnings".
This post was edited on 1/7/24 at 12:20 pm
Posted on 1/7/24 at 12:19 pm to FLTech
quote:the stuff people bitch about
really missed the days when a thunderstorm was well, a thunderstorm and not some stupid fricking level 1-5 weather event.
Posted on 1/7/24 at 12:20 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Artic Air Blast 
Posted on 1/7/24 at 12:36 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
It is gonna be a windy one tomorrow for most of LA, MS, AL, and parts of TN.
Can only imagine the rough air and turbulence for all flights tomorrow
Posted on 1/7/24 at 12:42 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Not looking forward to tomorrow… could get rough.
Posted on 1/7/24 at 12:44 pm to LegendInMyMind
So when do they start ending school early tomorrow
Posted on 1/7/24 at 12:55 pm to dukke v
quote:
Not looking forward to tomorrow… could get rough.
quote:
dukke v
Shut this thread down and proceed with outdoor picknic plans tomorrow. Should be a beautiful day.
Posted on 1/7/24 at 1:18 pm to geauxtigers87
quote:
So when do they start ending school early tomorrow
Need a moderate upgrade and severe timing during school day. We are looking at an enhanced overnight threat. If schools closed for that, it’d be some BS
Posted on 1/7/24 at 1:19 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Don't like seeing this bumped up to enhanced.
Bullseye is on the in laws in Biloxi area
Bullseye is on the in laws in Biloxi area
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