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Started By
Message
So Do you want Abortion to be illegal if it means Crime rates will sky rocket?
Posted on 4/14/22 at 10:45 am
Posted on 4/14/22 at 10:45 am
This was first pointed out on Freakonomics around 2005, then replicated multiple times including 2020. There are stories saying this was debunked but as a guy with just a masters they are garbage. Here is summary of point.
January 2000) Abortion is a divisive and emotional issue. Add racial overtones and the implication that public officials do not deserve all the credit for reductions in crime during the 1990s, and combustion is inevitable. Informed debate is not.
Stanford Law School professor John J. Donohue III and University of Chicago economist Steven D. Levitt ignited a debate last August when they released a study on the relationship between abortion and crime. Their findings suggest that legal abortions have prevented the births of many would-be criminals. The absence of these people, according to their research, is behind at least half of the dramatic drop in crime rates seen between 1991 and 1997.
Were the researchers just trying to stir up controversy with their results? Not at all, according to Donohue. “I was asked to write a paper on why crime was falling. In the course of looking at . . . various social programs and their impact on crime, I sort of stumbled across the data on abortion.”
The “sheer magnitude” of abortions prompted Donohue to dig deeper. When he and Levitt did, they found three factors especially compelling:
The timing. The abrupt drop in crime coincided with the coming of age (roughly 20 years later) of young people born after the 1973 Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision legalizing abortion. Also, in states where abortion became legal before 1973, the drop in crime started sooner.
The magnitude. States with high abortion rates have experienced more dramatic declines — the authors estimate 15 percent higher declines — in crime.
The pervasiveness. The reduction in crime has occurred both in cities that have waged war on an acknowledged cause of violent crime, crack cocaine, and in cities relatively untouched by crack. Similarly, crime has fallen both in cities that have expanded their police forces and changed policing techniques and in cities that have not changed their policing techniques or expanded their police forces.
After the USSC overturns Roe vs Wade, get ready for the largest crime spike in US History to occur in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, etc in about 12 to 16 years as the poors and criminals have millions of unwanted kids they can’t support who will become huge waves of criminals. I am guessing that huge gangs will reappear everywhere as well.
It will be the 70s all over if every gang member had a few AR-15s. Car jacking will be on every interstate, police will be outgunned and outmanned, they will likely have some type of control all major cities in the South.
It’s as foreseeable as death and taxes. Invest in private security companies etc in about 10 years and you can cash out, as you will need blackwater type guards to go shopping and bulletproof glass will be standard on nice cars etc.
January 2000) Abortion is a divisive and emotional issue. Add racial overtones and the implication that public officials do not deserve all the credit for reductions in crime during the 1990s, and combustion is inevitable. Informed debate is not.
Stanford Law School professor John J. Donohue III and University of Chicago economist Steven D. Levitt ignited a debate last August when they released a study on the relationship between abortion and crime. Their findings suggest that legal abortions have prevented the births of many would-be criminals. The absence of these people, according to their research, is behind at least half of the dramatic drop in crime rates seen between 1991 and 1997.
Were the researchers just trying to stir up controversy with their results? Not at all, according to Donohue. “I was asked to write a paper on why crime was falling. In the course of looking at . . . various social programs and their impact on crime, I sort of stumbled across the data on abortion.”
The “sheer magnitude” of abortions prompted Donohue to dig deeper. When he and Levitt did, they found three factors especially compelling:
The timing. The abrupt drop in crime coincided with the coming of age (roughly 20 years later) of young people born after the 1973 Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision legalizing abortion. Also, in states where abortion became legal before 1973, the drop in crime started sooner.
The magnitude. States with high abortion rates have experienced more dramatic declines — the authors estimate 15 percent higher declines — in crime.
The pervasiveness. The reduction in crime has occurred both in cities that have waged war on an acknowledged cause of violent crime, crack cocaine, and in cities relatively untouched by crack. Similarly, crime has fallen both in cities that have expanded their police forces and changed policing techniques and in cities that have not changed their policing techniques or expanded their police forces.
After the USSC overturns Roe vs Wade, get ready for the largest crime spike in US History to occur in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, etc in about 12 to 16 years as the poors and criminals have millions of unwanted kids they can’t support who will become huge waves of criminals. I am guessing that huge gangs will reappear everywhere as well.
It will be the 70s all over if every gang member had a few AR-15s. Car jacking will be on every interstate, police will be outgunned and outmanned, they will likely have some type of control all major cities in the South.
It’s as foreseeable as death and taxes. Invest in private security companies etc in about 10 years and you can cash out, as you will need blackwater type guards to go shopping and bulletproof glass will be standard on nice cars etc.
Posted on 4/14/22 at 10:46 am to TutHillTiger
How about making them mandatory for the prevention of crime?
Posted on 4/14/22 at 10:47 am to TutHillTiger
quote:
So Do you want Abortion to be illegal if it means Crime rates will sky rocket?
Isn't there a 3rd option for, Idk...punishing crime appropriately?
Posted on 4/14/22 at 10:47 am to TutHillTiger
If we kill every human the crime rate will drop to zero.
For those that oppose abortion as the unjustified killing of another, a crime rate argument doesn’t mean much.
Murdering someone before they might commit a crime isn’t really a solution to crime problems.
For those that oppose abortion as the unjustified killing of another, a crime rate argument doesn’t mean much.
Murdering someone before they might commit a crime isn’t really a solution to crime problems.
This post was edited on 4/14/22 at 10:49 am
Posted on 4/14/22 at 10:49 am to TutHillTiger
I want abortion illegal because I'd be willing to bet that >98% of abortions are done just because the lazy arse doesn't want to raise a child. Abortion is despicable and using it as a form of birth control makes my blood boil.
Posted on 4/14/22 at 10:49 am to TutHillTiger
Meh.
How about we give folks who have proven to be useless baby makers and are criminals a $2,000 payment if they agree to be sterilized?
How about we give folks who have proven to be useless baby makers and are criminals a $2,000 payment if they agree to be sterilized?
Posted on 4/14/22 at 10:50 am to TutHillTiger
We should offer Poor people $10,000 if they will get a vasectomy or tubes tied. That seems like a much better idea.
Posted on 4/14/22 at 10:51 am to notiger1997
quote:i don't think this would be that effective. 2k isn't a lot of money and not that many thugs/thuggettes are THAT desperate for a couple dollars
How about we give folks who have proven to be useless baby makers and are criminals a $2,000 payment if they agree to be sterilized?
Posted on 4/14/22 at 10:52 am to TutHillTiger
quote:Why was it much lower during the 1950s and 1960s compared to the 70s and 80s despite being prior to Roe vs Wade?
It will be the 70s all over
Posted on 4/14/22 at 10:52 am to TutHillTiger
quote:
Abortions cause less crime
This is what I’ve been saying for years. This is a huge reason why Eastern Europe has relatively low crime despite high poverty.
Unfortunately the pervasiveness of religion in this country will prevent this argument from ever being taken seriously, even though it makes perfect sense.
Posted on 4/14/22 at 10:52 am to TutHillTiger
Babies should never be killed for convenience of any kind
Posted on 4/14/22 at 10:54 am to TutHillTiger
quote:
So Do you want Abortion to be illegal
Yes. As is with all forms of murder.
Posted on 4/14/22 at 10:56 am to lsu13lsu
quote:
We should offer Poor people $10,000 if they will get a vasectomy or tubes tied. That seems like a much better idea.
I've proposed a one time, $20,000 cash payment for anyone who will do this. The people this is targeted at have no impulse control and would pounce at the chance to get $20K.
If you take the $20K, you are ineligible for govt benefits for life and any attempts to reverse the surgery will be done on your own dime AND you must pay back the $20K.
Posted on 4/14/22 at 10:59 am to TutHillTiger
You don’t intentionally kill innocent people. Period.
Posted on 4/14/22 at 11:00 am to TutHillTiger
This is not actually real. There are real reasons crime went up that have nothing to do with the ability to kill your unborn children. Being soft on crime is the major reason.
Posted on 4/14/22 at 11:00 am to TutHillTiger
What percentage of abortions are coming from poor people?
That is an interesting statement.
quote:
States with high abortion rates have experienced more dramatic declines — the authors estimate 15 percent higher declines — in crime.
That is an interesting statement.
This post was edited on 4/14/22 at 11:01 am
Posted on 4/14/22 at 11:01 am to PrecedentedTimes
quote:
This is a huge reason why Eastern Europe has relatively low crime despite high poverty.
I can think of another reason. One might call it a pretty obvious distinction between poor areas of Eastern Europe and poor areas of the US.
Posted on 4/14/22 at 11:01 am to TutHillTiger
Why don’t we abort TutHillTiger? Consider it a late term abortion. We’d See a drop in idiotic threads and one less Karen worrying about plastic straws, sea turtles, and medical procedures he himself will never have to worry about experiencing.
Posted on 4/14/22 at 11:01 am to TutHillTiger
How does that data measure up to the current rise in crime?
Abortion was alive and well 20 years ago and yet we have crime waves in all major cities.
Does not compute.
Talk about selective use of data. There are thousands of variables at play in these complex social equations, but you are going to boil it down to one single factor? Unscientific AF.
Abortion was alive and well 20 years ago and yet we have crime waves in all major cities.
Does not compute.
Talk about selective use of data. There are thousands of variables at play in these complex social equations, but you are going to boil it down to one single factor? Unscientific AF.
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