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Started By
Message
Trafalgar has Talarico +3
Posted on 10/10/26 at 4:00 pm
Posted on 10/10/26 at 4:00 pm
Might as well be a wrap if a right leaning poll is giving it that much of a cushion.
Hard to fathom Texas voting for a Democrat Senator.
Hard to fathom Texas voting for a Democrat Senator.
Posted on 10/10/26 at 4:18 pm to Stidham8
quote:
Might as well be a wrap if a right leaning poll is giving it that much of a cushion.
Hard to fathom Texas voting for a Democrat Senator.
The election is still nearly a month away. A UMass/ YouGov poll had them tied as of yesterday. Might as well be a wrap if a left-leaning poll has got them tied?
Oh, the margin of error on the Trafalgar poll? 2.9%. So the "cushion," if you could call it that, would be .1%
Posted on 10/10/26 at 4:20 pm to TigerIron
quote:
The election is still nearly a month away. A UMass/ YouGov poll had them tied as of yesterday. Might as well be a wrap if a left-leaning poll has got them tied? Oh, the margin of error on the Trafalgar poll? 2.9%. So the "cushion," if you could call it that, would be .1%
Outside the margin of error on a right leaning poll is ominous.
Posted on 10/10/26 at 4:21 pm to Stidham8
I will lol so hard if Texas votes in Freako 
Posted on 10/10/26 at 4:22 pm to Stidham8
Barely outside of the margin of error.
This will drift.
This will drift.
Posted on 10/10/26 at 4:29 pm to Stidham8
Trafalgar poll | 10/6-10/8 LV
US Senate Texas 2026 (crosstabs)
White
??Ken Paxton 48% (+5)
??James Talarico 43%
——
Hispanic
??James Talarico 48% (+2)
??Ken Paxton 46%
——
Black
??James Talarico 56% (+24)
??Ken Paxton 32%
——
Asian
??James Talarico 72% (+72)
??Ken Paxton 0%
US Senate Texas 2026 (crosstabs)
White
??Ken Paxton 48% (+5)
??James Talarico 43%
——
Hispanic
??James Talarico 48% (+2)
??Ken Paxton 46%
——
Black
??James Talarico 56% (+24)
??Ken Paxton 32%
——
Asian
??James Talarico 72% (+72)
??Ken Paxton 0%
Posted on 10/10/26 at 4:29 pm to Stidham8
I think Paxton sneaks out a close one but I'm beginning to question the logic behind that prediction.


Posted on 10/10/26 at 4:35 pm to Stidham8
What is the methodology? How many people did they sample? When you dig into these polls it’s surprising how few people there are in the sample size. In a state the size of Texas it almost becomes meaningless. Ask yourself: How accurate have the polls been the last few election cycles?
Posted on 10/10/26 at 4:36 pm to Stidham8
quote:
Outside the margin of error on a right leaning poll is ominous.
Thanks, concern troll. I am .1% (that is, one one thousandth) worried. How does the tie in the non-right-leaning poll fare on your ominous-meter?
Posted on 10/10/26 at 4:37 pm to Stidham8
Let’s see what the post-funny farm polls look like next week
Posted on 10/10/26 at 4:37 pm to Stidham8
Believe it or not, but there are a ton of dumbasses in this state. 
Posted on 10/10/26 at 4:40 pm to JimEverett
The "minority" vote is really sad.
Posted on 10/10/26 at 4:46 pm to JimEverett
quote:
Asian ??
James Talarico 72% (+72)
??Ken Paxton 0%
I would think that if they have a poll with 0% they'd either not release the crosstabs, or redo the poll.
This post was edited on 10/10/26 at 4:47 pm
Posted on 10/10/26 at 4:49 pm to SloaneRanger
Members of the silent majority, where elections are typically won and lost, in the “swing” districts or states, the average person in that group is much more likely to hang up or otherwise ignore polling requests/invitations. Same story for voters on the right who don’t proactively discuss their political beliefs, who keep to themselves on such matters, and in accordance therewith they also avoid a polling situation as well.
I’d guess that their reasoning could or would be that they don’t trust the “anonymous” nature of polling and have sorta noticed the extent of craziness and crazy people who would oppose them; and/or for reason of not trusting their participation would be accurately or scrupulously factored in and presented.
Just my personal thoughts and opinion on the matter. Some of us will understand and connect with this common sense proposition, while those who aren’t capable will cry “too long and too many of those word things,” or “All I can say is word salad. No literally, that’s all I’m capable of saying.” Lol
I’d guess that their reasoning could or would be that they don’t trust the “anonymous” nature of polling and have sorta noticed the extent of craziness and crazy people who would oppose them; and/or for reason of not trusting their participation would be accurately or scrupulously factored in and presented.
Just my personal thoughts and opinion on the matter. Some of us will understand and connect with this common sense proposition, while those who aren’t capable will cry “too long and too many of those word things,” or “All I can say is word salad. No literally, that’s all I’m capable of saying.” Lol
Posted on 10/10/26 at 4:57 pm to Stidham8
I am afraid the fruit wins.....and that's not just a TX problem, that's a USA problem!
Posted on 10/10/26 at 5:02 pm to oldskule
or
its just that paxton is a bad, very bad candidate
its just that paxton is a bad, very bad candidate
Posted on 10/10/26 at 5:04 pm to Stidham8
The fact that this is even a discussion is solely on the shoulders of fake TX GOP politicians who have sold out their state to a bunch of outsiders, foreigners, and illegals.

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