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TigerIron
| Favorite team: | |
| Location: | |
| Biography: | |
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| Number of Posts: | 4200 |
| Registered on: | 2/8/2021 |
| Online Status: | Not Online |
Recent Posts
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re: Texas Voting update - It is tied between R vs. D
Posted by TigerIron on 10/28/26 at 12:05 pm to UnoDelgado
quote:
The prediction market is telling a different story.
Prediction markets can be wrong and they are very often wrong until you get to the day or 2 before the election, at which point they usually (but not always) converge on what actually is going to happen.
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re: Rolling Stone reveals their top rock songs of the 21st century so far
Posted by TigerIron on 10/28/26 at 8:16 am to HarryBalzack
quote:
I guess I'm old as frick because I only know 7 of those. I'm okay with that, though.
Not to make you feel worse but most of those songs are themselves about 20 years old.
re: Former Tuskegee airman now oldest know living male in U.S.
Posted by TigerIron on 10/27/26 at 9:34 pm to UptownJoeBrown
quote:
The Tuskegee airman are given way too much credit for being great fighter pilots. Not withstanding they did have to deal with discrimination.
By the time they entered combat, most skilled German fighter pilots had either been killed/grounded by injuries or captured.
Way to stick it to the 115-year-old combat vet who doesn't talk much less brag about his military service. I'm sure when you fought in a world war it was only against the most skilled of fighter pilots. Or, you know, you watch a lot of football on TV and history documentaries on youtube and consider yourself something of an expert on military history, which is basically the same thing.
So, you bought into conspiracy theories from twitter and podcasters, and are now doing a victory dance because another twitter account "confirms" they're true, using a video from six months ago that doesn't say what the conspiracy claimed was going on?
That's what your post is, right?
I seriously wonder how some of you manage to hold down jobs and pay bills if this is how you process info about what's going on in the world.
That's what your post is, right?
I seriously wonder how some of you manage to hold down jobs and pay bills if this is how you process info about what's going on in the world.
quote:
That has no bearing on the change that people who are engaged in politics want to happen for their respective parties. Primary voters drive the change, general voters consume the change. Whether they reject it or not is irrelevant.
I am responding to a thread that says "If If Cornyn couldn’t beat Paxton how was he gonna beat Talarico?" and someone else who said that's a great point.
It's not a great point. What you're talking about is why Talarico is better than Cornyn from the perspective of republican primary voters. What I was talking about is why Cornyn would have easily beaten Talarico in the general even though he couldn't beat Paxton in the primary.
quote:
Whether they reject it or not is irrelevant.
This, however, is another stupid point. If your primary voters keep picking candidates that the general electorate wont' "consume," then you are going to go backwards in terms of what you want out of politics.
re: If Cornyn couldn’t beat Paxton how was he gonna beat Talarico?
Posted by TigerIron on 10/23/26 at 10:37 pm to Tigertittie
quote:
That's actually a really good point.
It's not at all a good point because the Texas republican primary electorate is very different from the Texas general election electorate. It's an obviously dumb point.
You can argue that Paxton is better than Cornyn and Cornyn needed to go because he was a RINO.
You cannot argue with a straight face that Cornyn would be in as close a race with Talarico as Paxton is. Cornyn would have cruised over Talarico, and Talarico's only real hope is to win with voters who would have voted for Cornyn but won't vote for Paxton.
quote:
Well, well well. Because of the damage the democrats have done to America and themselves, it appears there is at least two decades of GOP hold on the office of POTUS and Vice-POTUS. People have awakened and the Lying Media (MSM) is viewed as their #1 domestic enemy.
Hang On, Baws. Gonna be a great run!!
You're either a troll actually trying to make people hate republicans, or you're a delusional twitter addicted boomer.
Either way you and your posts really suck.
re: Is Texas safe, looks like it after day 4
Posted by TigerIron on 10/23/26 at 1:39 pm to DarthRebel
This says it's "modelled," which means it isn't based on actual numbers and entirely depends on how good the model is. Who is the modeler here and do they have any track record of being right with their modeling?
quote:
it is something that is absolutely trackable
Good to know. Are the claims that poster is making (that all the turnout increase is Dems) reliable from what you can tell? They are not generally trustworthy and have consistently bad takes. But public numbers are public numbers.
quote:
In Collin and Denton counties, overall numbers are up 40% over 2024 for the first day. The increase in participation is being fueled entirely by those who voted in the Democratic primary -- up from 22% to 39% in Collin and up from 24% to 42% in Denton. A similar pattern was observed in Montgomery and Brazoria counties in metro Houston.
How do you know or claim to know this? Is this actual public info or just some claim you're making. If it is actual public info, what is your source?
quote:
Betting markets can be moved with relatively small amounts of money.
This is very obvious when you look at how small some of the pools of money are on some of these things. I wouldn't use it as a reliable predictor. It might have the ability to shape public perceptions though through false signaling. Which is why these things are generally a terrible idea.
This is also a good point. I wonder if people with money would think it worthwhile to do, though.
re: Is Kalshi Biased?
Posted by TigerIron on 10/16/26 at 5:21 pm to IvoryBillMatt
I actually think maybe it is or could be because of who tends to use a betting market (skews younger, more techy, no problem with gambling) and who wouldn't use one. Now, those people are still betting on what they think will happen, but they see a limited information environment (like all of us) and may not know a lot of conservative voters (and especially rural voters).
quote:
Meter maids—officially known as parking enforcement officers or meter attendants—are not sworn law enforcement officers
when does the federal government prosecute murders of police officers and firefighters? when was the last time that happened?
re: TRUMP: We're bringing back the death penalty for ANYBODY that kills a police officer
Posted by TigerIron on 10/15/26 at 2:07 pm to Bunk Moreland
quote:
I mean, this is a state law issue, right?
Yes, of course. The federal AG doesn't prosecute murders of cops or firefighters. And it doesn't seem like Trump is telling him to try; just to seek the death penalty in cases his office never brings.
But "Eric Daugherty" needs his bots to repost his shite to drive those engagement numbers, bro. So ALL CAPS and fire emojis it is. I guess it works on at least some of the people on here, who think that tweets create reality and get mad when you point out they actually don't.
re: Take Note of Traffic to the Board and Regular Posters Who Aren't Around Today
Posted by TigerIron on 10/12/26 at 10:53 pm to LegendInMyMind
Take Note of People Who Repost Tweets Claiming Dumb bullshite And Then Double Down On It Even After It's Totally Debunked.
re: Trafalgar has Talarico +3
Posted by TigerIron on 10/10/26 at 4:46 pm to JimEverett
quote:
Asian ??
James Talarico 72% (+72)
??Ken Paxton 0%
I would think that if they have a poll with 0% they'd either not release the crosstabs, or redo the poll.
quote:
Outside the margin of error on a right leaning poll is ominous.
Thanks, concern troll. I am .1% (that is, one one thousandth) worried. How does the tie in the non-right-leaning poll fare on your ominous-meter?
quote:
Might as well be a wrap if a right leaning poll is giving it that much of a cushion.
Hard to fathom Texas voting for a Democrat Senator.
The election is still nearly a month away. A UMass/ YouGov poll had them tied as of yesterday. Might as well be a wrap if a left-leaning poll has got them tied?
Oh, the margin of error on the Trafalgar poll? 2.9%. So the "cushion," if you could call it that, would be .1%
I hope they didn't shoot the tiger.
quote:
Yep. And it took him out for nearly two weeks. No mention of it until today, of course.
quote:
Talarico has not been on the road because he had the flu, something he publicly revealed more than a week ago.
quote:
At the Hispanic Business Council event, Talarico appeared virtually and was blowing his nose and coughing through the event. “I was starting to feel kind of under the weather a few days ago, and last night it got so bad that I went to the urgent care here in Dallas, and I was diagnosed with the flu,” Talarico said at the time. “I’m running a fever, and I’m my most contagious right now. And I guess I’ve been shaking too many hands on the campaign trail, and so I want to keep everybody safe.”
That event was on Sept. 30.
Earlier today it was "he's definitely in a mental institution in Houston."
Then later today he's at a public event in Austin, and it's suddenly "I meant he was in a mental institution until today. Then he got out and went to the concert. Plus he never said he had the flu till today."
--he said he had the flu 10 days ago.
"I meant he said he had the flu 10 days ago but everyone knows that meant he was going to the mental institution."
--What mental institution?
"The one in Houston. That the twitter said. Everyone knows that the flu doesn't last 10 days and so that proves he was in a mental institution in Houston."
--i see. and why won't Paxton debate him?
"He had the flu. He's contagious."
--got it. that tracks. speaking of mental institutions. . . .
quote:
10 plus day absence with absolutely zero explanation until today when he claims he has the flu? Come on man.
What is your basis for believing he was in a mental institution?
Do you understand/ admit that it generally makes sense only to believe things if you have some sort of evidence to support the belief? Or do you actually consciously think "if someone claims something and I think it would be good if it was true, I will believe it's true."
quote:
until today when he claims he has the flu? Come on man
He said he was sick with the flu on September 29.
I don't want him to win, but I also really don't want to be on the side of people who either have no ability to separate out wishes from facts or actively don't care whether something is true or not.
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