Robert Mann: “Cassidy’s vote to impeach Trump could help him for Governor’

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Voting to convict former president Donald Trump in February in his second impeachment trial might have seemed like political suicide for a Republican senator from deep-red Louisiana. But on closer inspection, Bill Cassidy might have better survival prospects than expected. He might just have to relocate from Capitol Hill to the governor’s mansion in Baton Rouge.
Before the impeachment vote, many Louisiana Democrats considered Cassidy a garden-variety Trump supporter with more ambition than backbone. While he was long on sponsoring bipartisan bills, Cassidy was shorter on accomplishments.

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When Cassidy joined six other Republican senators in voting to convict the famously vindictive former president, many in Louisiana were stunned by the seemingly career-ending move.
Like several elected officials here, Cassidy is a former Democrat. In the early 2000s, he switched to the GOP and won a state Senate seat in 2006. A few years later, he won a U.S. House election and, in 2014, his first Senate term. In the Senate, Cassidy often revealed a pragmatic streak, working with Democratic colleagues on health care and other social legislation.

But he also reliably supported Trump, winning his endorsement in 2020. Then came the Jan. 6 invasion of the U.S. Capitol. Cassidy, who denounced the attack and did not support Republican attempts to overturn the election results, said his mind was open about Trump’s impeachment. The Louisiana Republican Party’s censure over his impeachment vote left Cassidy unchastened; in October, he told Axios that he doubted Trump could win the GOP nomination in 2024. And, in any case, Cassidy said, he wouldn’t vote for Trump.

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Maybe Cassidy calculated that in taking a principled stand regarding Jan. 6, he could simply outlast Trump and his insults: A Trump-backed primary challenge would have to wait until the senator is up for reelection in 2026.

Or maybe it’s all the above, plus a fascinating possibility: Cassidy’s impeachment vote could make him a formidable candidate for Louisiana governor in 2023.
In Louisiana, unlike many states, the governor’s office is the most powerful and attractive elected office. Flirting with a gubernatorial run is a tradition for Louisiana senators, though in the past 117 years only the sex-scandalized David Vitter tried it (unsuccessfully, in 2015).

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Should he run, his moderate record and clear break with Trump could position him well as a compromise choice against whoever emerges as the Trump-endorsed, far-right Republican candidate. Keep an eye on state Attorney General Jeff Landry to fill that role.

Because Louisiana does not hold party primaries, and Democrats might struggle to find a successor to term-limited Democratic incumbent John Bel Edwards, Cassidy could become the Democrats’ least-objectionable Republican. In a state with a sizable Democratic electorate, unified Democratic support — combined with the votes of independents and a smattering of Republicans — could make an unbeatable combination.

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