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re: New theory on Wuhan Virus being floated by epidemiologists
Posted on 3/15/20 at 10:15 am to Eli Goldfinger
Posted on 3/15/20 at 10:15 am to Eli Goldfinger
I'd love to know what's going on in North Korea at this time. Is their isolation working in their favor or has their relationship with China brought a medical calamity to their population?
1
Posted on 3/15/20 at 10:17 am to Eli Goldfinger
Wait so October, right as Bill Gates was running Event 201. But I'm an idiot for making connections. Right.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 10:18 am to Eli Goldfinger
quote:
I wonder just how some doctor decided to try to identify the virus?
Docs could only do that if they had like 2 patients per day.
Even if a Dr. wanted to test for Covi-d19, there was no readily available way to test for it until just recently as Covid-19 was not on typical viral panels. Confirmation would've probably required viral cultures and no practicing Dr. would've done that. And what Dr. would've been testing for Covid-19 months ago before a significant outbreak had been reported?
Posted on 3/15/20 at 10:19 am to WMTigerFAN
quote:
I'd love to know what's going on in North Korea at this time. Is their isolation working in their favor or has their relationship with China brought a medical calamity to their population?
If they were all dead would anyone know?
Posted on 3/15/20 at 10:21 am to I B Freeman
quote:
wonder just how some doctor decided to try to identify the virus?
How many times have we all been to the doctor and been told we have the crud and sent home?
Never has a doctor said to me “I am going to identify the particular virus you have
I've wondered the same. Something specifically had to force the DRs hand in China.
Maybe multiple odd looking xrays
Posted on 3/15/20 at 11:07 am to BuckyCheese
Lil Rocket Man will definitely kill anyone who has flu-like symptoms.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 11:24 am to Eli Goldfinger
It's the flu. Mayve a little worst than normal nut it's the flu people.
Read a book. Any book. Turn off your TV and internet.
Prosper
Read a book. Any book. Turn off your TV and internet.
Prosper
Posted on 3/15/20 at 11:29 am to Taxing Authority
quote:
True. But that presumes China's detection was timely and very close to P0
No it doesn’t.
I think I’m doing a very poor job of explaining it.
The virus constantly mutates.
It might not change function, but there are changes that occur rapidly in the genome.
When it was discovered, there was mass sequencing in many different locations at many different times.
This allows to use sequence data to translate to time stamp the infection source. And this process can break it down to weeks, if not days.
This isn’t estimation or approximation. It’s hard science.
The virus emerged in the US around Jan 10-15 because the sequences in the US don’t diverge from China until that date.
Regardless of how long it was in China, detected or undetected, this means that the emergence in the US is pretty much fixed as that as the earliest date.
If it had arrived in the US earlier, it would be missing the sequences that had mutated in China later.
Also, If it had arrived in the US earlier, it would be the predominant strain here and picked up on.
The argument that is trying to be proposed that it was both so prevalent you can see the spike in cases, but also enough on the fringes that it evaded all detection even after we started looking for it.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 11:31 am to Scruffy
quote:
That is actually incredibly reassuring.
It means we haven’t seen anything significantly out of the ordinary, dispute the new virus.
Exactly, let's drop all of the sky screaming hysteria and get back to normal. Sure, protect the elderly w/ utmost precaution, but shutting the entire economy down for a media driven panic is the craziest thing I've seen in my life.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 11:40 am to Eli Goldfinger
Back in mid January I had what I thought was the flu. One day I was so weak I didn’t feel like getting up to take a shite and seriously contemplated about shitting in the bed so I wouldn’t have to get up. I’ve had the corona.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 11:49 am to Volvagia
quote:You're doing fine. It's a hard format (an internet forum) and I'm out of my area of expertise. Thanks for making the effort.
I think I’m doing a very poor job of explaining it.
quote:Got it. It's like a DAG.
The virus emerged in the US around Jan 10-15 because the sequences in the US don’t diverge from China until that date.
quote:Gotcha.
If it had arrived in the US earlier, it would be missing the sequences that had mutated in China later.
What I don't understand is how far back in the lineage we are able to look.
If we are testing for COVID by looking for ancestors of the known strains in China, would we be able to find a common ancestor to both the new strain and the Chinese strain?
Or would it look like a novel strain, or perhaps go undetected because it's not what we're looking for?
quote:I don't have a good feel for how implausible that is. I know I see a lot of modeler huburis in our daily work. It's even worse in academia. Finding exactly what you look for is a common error.
but also enough on the fringes that it evaded all detection even after we started looking for it.
This post was edited on 3/15/20 at 12:20 pm
Posted on 3/15/20 at 12:19 pm to Taxing Authority
quote:
Actual cases, yes. Reported cases, no. We're just now starting to test for it widely. There's really no where for the reported number to go but UP.
Agreed completely. US will show a spike with testing becoming widely avaialable. That being said, if Covid-19 has been in the US since January its not as lethal as we currently think.
Posted on 3/15/20 at 1:13 pm to LSU0358
quote:There aren’t any experts I’ve seen lately who think it’s inordinately lethal. Maybe .6 mortality rate
Agreed completely. US will show a spike with testing becoming widely avaialable. That being said, if Covid-19 has been in the US since January its not as lethal as we currently think.
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