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Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:50 pm to Tiguar
I still don't know what narrative I want out of this election:
A: Moore wins and Repubs being beaten over the head over the allegations
B: Jones wins and not only lose a senate seat but also fuel the fire that these sexual harassment claims mean you should end your career. Oh and the Trump accusers.
A: Moore wins and Repubs being beaten over the head over the allegations
B: Jones wins and not only lose a senate seat but also fuel the fire that these sexual harassment claims mean you should end your career. Oh and the Trump accusers.
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:50 pm to RockChalkTiger
quote:
y'all know he's guilty.
Granted, I don't know a damn thing about Alabama politics, gotta think they are a lot like Louisiana's politics and I don't really have a dog in this hunt because I'm not an Alabama resident. But, I don't really know that he's guilty or not. I don't know all the details in the matter, it just seems to me that it's a huge he said she said matter.
I don't really believe either of the parties involved in the matter. It doesn't bode well that Moore has apparently changed his story a couple times while at the same time it's rather fishy to me that Gloria Allred is involved in the matter and that she won't give the yearbook up plus the deal with the woman's story about the phone and her problems with the law not completely adding up.
All this came at really too convenient of a time in this race for me so I want to believe Moore but I can't not take the allegations seriously. Alabamans had a pretty difficult task in this election in regards to the two candidates.
Also, the fact that it took these women FORTY years to come forward is extremely fishy. The fact that Moore's wife is standing by him and he still maintains his innocence after what's happened with Franken and others says a lot to me.
This post was edited on 12/12/17 at 8:54 pm
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:50 pm to Jake88
quote:
What's in Jefferson Co? How does it usually go?
Birmingham. Also known as the last nail in Roy Moore's political coffin. Hopefully forever!
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:51 pm to rpg37
Are they stuffing ballots in the bigger cities?
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:51 pm to rpg37
"estimates are based on the results reported so far, the results of previous elections and demographic data. Unlike reported results, they attempt to account for precincts that have not yet reported their votes. "
From NYT
From NYT
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:51 pm to RockChalkTiger
Moore will win this its another Trump where MSM called it for Hillary then Trump won.
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:51 pm to LosLobos111
quote:
Think Roy wins by the equivalent of a fg
Or either one by a pick-2 in OT.
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:51 pm to RockChalkTiger
Jesus, margin of error is still 21% in the NYT meter...it is an absolute toss up
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:51 pm to TOPAL
Forgot about Montgomery. Jones is gonna win by about 2%. Damn
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:51 pm to TOPAL
quote:
Are they stuffing ballots in the bigger cities?
They are bussing in and paying voters. Cough Soros
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:51 pm to TOPAL
Still only 3% from Montgomery.
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:52 pm to pvilleguru
what about Mobile?
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:52 pm to TOPAL
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:52 pm to pvilleguru
Maybe ntgonery alone will move Jones in the lead.
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:52 pm to pvilleguru
Ridiculous
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:52 pm to BamaGradinTn
Jones going to win every single city in Alabama? 
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:52 pm to MrLSU
I am not paying attn to that NYTimes needle it is broken.
JONES 47%
MOORE 52%
waiting on DALLAS COUNTY is what I see.
JONES 47%
MOORE 52%
waiting on DALLAS COUNTY is what I see.
This post was edited on 12/12/17 at 8:53 pm
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:52 pm to TigerFanInSouthland
quote:
it just seems to me that it's a huge he said she said matter.
Except that there are 9 she's and one he.
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:52 pm to Prince_Hakeem
65% of votes now counted in #AlabamaSenateElection but notably only 37% in Jefferson County, where Jones is winning by more than four votes to one. That's why Jones is favourite, despite Moore being ahead on vote count.
2) There's *big* variance among completed counties in terms of vote share. There are some counties where Jones is 15 pts ahead. Others 15 pts down.
This doesn't surprise me, given that ... tied elections in AL don't happen often
But this also adds to the uncertainty. Our simulations are really bullish on Jones in Montgomery/Birmingham. But the huge variance in whether Jones/Moore is overperforming means that it's possible this is way off.
I'd urge you to go and compare the confidence interval here to a similar spot in the presidential race. 65% in, and virtually no decrease in the margin of error. That's crazy.
2) There's *big* variance among completed counties in terms of vote share. There are some counties where Jones is 15 pts ahead. Others 15 pts down.
This doesn't surprise me, given that ... tied elections in AL don't happen often
But this also adds to the uncertainty. Our simulations are really bullish on Jones in Montgomery/Birmingham. But the huge variance in whether Jones/Moore is overperforming means that it's possible this is way off.
I'd urge you to go and compare the confidence interval here to a similar spot in the presidential race. 65% in, and virtually no decrease in the margin of error. That's crazy.
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