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re: Moore - 48.4% ---- Jones - 49.9% --- 100% Reporting. Moore Lost!

Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:48 pm to
Posted by 9th life
birmingham
Member since Sep 2009
7310 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:48 pm to
DOUG JONES
O
U
G

J
O
N
E
S
Posted by PurpleandGold Motown
Waltzing Between the Raindrops
Member since Oct 2007
24745 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:48 pm to
All the remaining votes are in democratic areas.

10,000 votes don't take as long as 200,000.

And Jones has 81% of Jefferson county.
Posted by biggsc
Member since Mar 2009
34777 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:48 pm to
Melt like ice bitch
Posted by LosLobos111
Austere
Member since Feb 2011
45385 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:48 pm to
Think Roy wins by the equivalent of a fg
Posted by GetCocky11
Calgary, AB
Member since Oct 2012
53509 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:48 pm to
quote:

quote: NYT back in toss up range These people are ridiculously erratic


I'd imagine it is automated.
Posted by volfan30
Member since Jun 2010
41214 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:48 pm to
Moore +130
Jones -170
Posted by Teddy Ruxpin
Member since Oct 2006
40964 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:48 pm to
quote:


Yeah, that in itself shows the flaws with their algorithm.



The model is using historical data. The thing about historical data is there is no guarantee the present will act the same as the past.

So every time real results come in, the NYT model says, IF every county after this moment behaves like the past, the chance of victory = this.

So in that sense, it is correct. At that moment in time that was the odds, but every time real data replaces historical data the calculation is made again.

Really it's just a fun thing to look out and doesn't necessarily mean anything.
This post was edited on 12/12/17 at 8:49 pm
Posted by IAmReality
Member since Oct 2012
12229 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:48 pm to
Big chunk of votes must have come in for Jones, he jumped from like 60 to 70% in their predictor.
Posted by HottyToddy7
Member since Sep 2010
15251 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:49 pm to
Jefferson At 48%
Jones - 67k
Moore - 13k
Posted by Tigerbait357
Member since Jun 2011
71162 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:49 pm to
"we will know more when 90% of people report"
Posted by boosiebadazz
Member since Feb 2008
86265 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:49 pm to
Vegas is the true barometer
Posted by OMLandshark
Member since Apr 2009
120445 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:49 pm to
Posted by saints5021
Louisiana
Member since Jul 2010
19608 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:49 pm to
looks like the lead is down to 40k
Posted by biggsc
Member since Mar 2009
34777 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:49 pm to
It will be high and tight
Posted by Prince_Hakeem
NavyTiger74 is my alter
Member since Dec 2017
238 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:49 pm to
65% of votes now counted in #AlabamaSenateElection but notably only 37% in Jefferson County, where Jones is winning by more than four votes to one. That's why Jones is favourite, despite Moore being ahead on vote count.
Posted by FunroePete
The Big Cheezy
Member since Dec 2012
1531 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:49 pm to
quote:


Dinosaurs don't prove the Earth is over 6000 years old.

your right i forgot genesis said jesus and trex were best buds, i got stumped again.
you guys are too smaht
This post was edited on 12/12/17 at 8:50 pm
Posted by rbWarEagle
Member since Nov 2009
49999 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:49 pm to
It's going to jump again soon
Posted by Rebel
Graceland
Member since Jan 2005
144569 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:49 pm to
quote:

What a joke that Moore is going to win


The joke is what the Dems have turned into.
Posted by rpg37
Biloxi, MS
Member since Sep 2008
54945 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:50 pm to
Jones mowing down the votes now!
Posted by Jake88
Member since Apr 2005
80734 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:50 pm to
Ibe noticed many say he's not keeping up with Trump, but he doesn't need to. In fact he can way underperform trump and still win by 2.
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