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re: Moore - 48.4% ---- Jones - 49.9% --- 100% Reporting. Moore Lost!

Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:53 pm to
Posted by bmy
Nashville
Member since Oct 2007
48203 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:53 pm to
quote:


Jesus, margin of error is still 21% in the NYT meter...it is an absolute toss up



or it could be a blowout with that kind of error
Posted by Tiguar
Montana
Member since Mar 2012
33131 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:53 pm to
Mobile is a little more than 20% reporting with a 20pt margin for Jones, currently. That's bad for Moore.

But Baldwin has a lot of votes left for Moore.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
178246 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:53 pm to
Love how Dem counties always come in slow and last because they have to see just how many votes they need to forge to win without being too suspicious.
Posted by LosLobos111
Austere
Member since Feb 2011
45385 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:53 pm to
He's way behind
Posted by Prince_Hakeem
NavyTiger74 is my alter
Member since Dec 2017
238 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:53 pm to
NYT model just jumped back up for Jones. Now +3.3
71% chance of Jones winning.
Posted by nugget
Abrego Garcia Fan
Member since Dec 2009
15751 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:53 pm to
Down to 21k lead
Posted by pvilleguru
Member since Jun 2009
60453 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:53 pm to
quote:

what about Mobile?
29% for Mobile. Up to 38% for Montgomery.
Posted by FairhopeTider
Fairhope, Alabama
Member since May 2012
22918 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:53 pm to
Alabama SOS is estimating 50% turnout. That's amazing.
This post was edited on 12/12/17 at 8:54 pm
Posted by tigersbh
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2005
13343 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:53 pm to
quote:

I have rocks in my yard older than that.


What, no quad joke?
Posted by moneyg
Member since Jun 2006
63573 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:53 pm to
quote:

Still only 3% from Montgomery.



This is baked in to the prediction though.

At this point, the NYT model would have to be complete shite to shift that much (or, Moore would have to severely over perform in Montgomery).

I'm sorry to say that Moore isn't going to win.
Posted by GoTig3rz1
Member since Nov 2017
92 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:53 pm to
quote:

Are they stuffing ballots in the bigger cities?



I was allowed to submit 1200 Jones ballots at my polling place. I know a guy.
Posted by antibarner
Member since Oct 2009
26919 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:54 pm to
Inner city boxes Tiguar, Mobile Co will go Moore
Posted by Prince_Hakeem
NavyTiger74 is my alter
Member since Dec 2017
238 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:54 pm to
75% reported in #AlabamaSenateElection - Moore leads by 21K. But if Jefferson, which is only 48% reported, maintains trend so far, Jones will add well more than 50K advantage
Posted by LSUneaux
Metairie and MAGA AF
Member since Mar 2014
5035 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:54 pm to
25k
Posted by truthbetold
Member since Aug 2008
7637 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:54 pm to
this damn NYT meter is intoxicating
Posted by TakingStock
Member since Jun 2009
7585 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:54 pm to
It’s just too fishy that all of these accusers (regardless of the accused) hold in their accusations so they come out at the most politically opportunistic times for the opposing party.
This post was edited on 12/12/17 at 8:55 pm
Posted by TigerBait1971
PTC GA
Member since Oct 2014
16449 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:54 pm to
I really don't care who wins this, but this is entertaining as hell.
Posted by Gusoline
Jacksonville, NC
Member since Dec 2013
11135 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:54 pm to
they still have 90 birmingham precinct to report but there are multiple red counties that have 12-30 to count
Posted by biggsc
Member since Mar 2009
34777 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:54 pm to
It is tight again
Posted by LosLobos111
Austere
Member since Feb 2011
45385 posts
Posted on 12/12/17 at 8:54 pm to
Back up to 25k
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