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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

Posted on 7/13/26 at 2:21 pm to
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
21133 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 2:21 pm to
The oddest thing is how many people were convinced in 2022 that Russia would be heavily favored in a longer conflict. We see every day that was incorrect.

quote:

Macron said Ukraine will receive Rafale fighters in 2028 to 2029 and licenses to produce Aster-30 missiles for SAMP/T, AASM Hammer guided bombs, and SCALP cruise missiles. Zelensky said Ukraine currently lacks interceptors against ballistic missiles but has developed an antiballistic missile. He added that Ukraine and its partners could build a joint antiballistic system within 12 months.


LINK
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
135343 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 3:46 pm to
quote:

The oddest thing is how many people were convinced in 2022 that Russia would be heavily favored in a longer conflict.
Agreed.

I know I was in that crowd.

I was also in the crowd who believed the war would be over in less than 3 months with Ukraine completely overrun by the mighty Russian military.
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42955 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 4:08 pm to
quote:

I was also in the crowd who believed the war would be over in less than 3 months with Ukraine completely overrun by the mighty Russian military.


I was right there with you guys.

I can’t believe that people can’t see how great of a fight Ukraine has put up.

Posted by T1gerNate
Member since Feb 2020
3805 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 4:10 pm to
quote:

I was also in the crowd who believed the war would be over in less than 3 months with Ukraine completely overrun by the mighty Russian military.


In fairness, that is what would have happened had the US and EU not decided to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian and dump $500 billion into the conflict. A lot of people would still be alive today as well.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8283 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 4:17 pm to
quote:

A lot of people would still be alive today as well.


And even more would be alive if Russia hadn't invaded Ukraine.
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42955 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 4:21 pm to
quote:

In fairness, that is what would have happened had the US and EU not decided to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian and dump $500 billion into the conflict. A lot of people would still be alive today as well.


If the Russians had executed their plan Ukraine would have been overrun before Western aid would have shown up.

Ukraine would be under Russian control, and Ukrainians would be locked up in prison camps.

Some people still believe in live free or die.
Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
30970 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 4:23 pm to
That is interesting. What are the viable options for fuel transport? Truck, rail, ship, pipeline? Truck and rail only have 2 routes into Crimea, and they have both been disrupted. Ships are seeing as much or greater interruption.

A pipeline under the Sea of Azov seems crazy and even under the Kerch Straight you still have to have it emerge at a distribution point which would be a prime target.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8283 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 4:25 pm to
quote:

A pipeline under the Sea of Azov seems crazy and even under the Kerch Straight you still have to have it emerge at a distribution point which would be a prime target.


And Russia would have to build it while under fire the whole way across. That would take a long time, so I don't see how that would be quick relief.
Posted by Auburn1968
NYC
Member since Mar 2019
27329 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 4:44 pm to
quote:

I was also in the crowd who believed the war would be over in less than 3 months with Ukraine completely overrun by the mighty Russian military.


After looking up the approximate size of the Ukraine military including, police and border units, reserves and all, Russia's special exercise that became their "special operation" didn't appear to have that much of an advantage. Add to that Ukraine fighting for their homes and hearths as well as great historical animosity toward Russia, they had the will to fight.

Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
30970 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 4:48 pm to
More funny than strictly relevant. She sure does say blyat a lot; it must be the HSV-2 coursing through her veins.

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FYI Wildberries is similar to Amazon in Russia, so it appears whatever she is selling there is getting more expensive, and the sales commissions are going up.
Posted by T1gerNate
Member since Feb 2020
3805 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 4:52 pm to
quote:

Ukrainians would be locked up in prison camps.

Posted by texag7
College Station
Member since Apr 2014
41585 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 5:00 pm to
French imports of Russian LNG increased 34% in the month of June.

Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
5856 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 5:13 pm to
Reports of a Ukrainian drone attack on the Afipsky refinery.

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Posted by No Colors
Sandbar
Member since Sep 2010
13669 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 5:19 pm to
quote:

had the US and EU not decided to fight Russia

Well. To be fair, the Ukrainians did most of the fighting. And the dying. So don't leave them out.

And. Serious question: If a neighbor invaded your country. With the aim of turning you into a puppet state, like Belarus. Would you fight? Or would you just be ok with losing your sovereignty?

Second question: Is Ukraine better off today than they would have been if they had rolled over and become the next Belarus?
Posted by T1gerNate
Member since Feb 2020
3805 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 5:22 pm to
quote:

Is Ukraine better off today than they would have been if they had rolled over and become the next Belarus?


Unquestionably, by every conceivable objective measure, no. Not even close.
Posted by Mr Happy
Member since May 2019
2791 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 5:23 pm to
quote:

Is Ukraine better off today than they would have been if they had rolled over and become the next Belarus?

Not today, but I bet they will be five years after this is over.
Posted by T1gerNate
Member since Feb 2020
3805 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 5:24 pm to
quote:

If a neighbor invaded your country. With the aim of turning you into a puppet state, like Belarus. Would you fight? Or would you just be ok with losing your sovereignty?


Well I would probably fight, but I live in a real country, not a former SSR that has been nominally independent for a shorter amount of time than the show The Simpsons has been on the air.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
21133 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 5:43 pm to
quote:

Unquestionably, by every conceivable objective measure, no. Not even close.



Depends on the value of freedom.


Posted by No Colors
Sandbar
Member since Sep 2010
13669 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 5:59 pm to
quote:

Unquestionably, by every conceivable objective measure, no. Not even close.

Ok. So for clarity you believe that Ukraine would be better off as a client state of Russia, than as a western aligned sovereign country with 20% of its eastern side occupied?

Because if you ask people in Belarus how they like being a vassal state. In general they don't like it. Their leaders just never gave them a choice.
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
8588 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 6:05 pm to
quote:

“The photo deserves to be called historic,”


If Russia did this y'all would (rightfully) be clowning them for basically using Cessnas as bombers
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