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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted on 10/14/25 at 12:54 pm to VolSquatch
Posted on 10/14/25 at 12:54 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Russia in any kind of iteration similar to its current one will always have engrained flaws that cap their capabilities because they are essentially a criminal enterprise that daylights as a functioning government. The next iteration of Russia might not have those same issues.
Someone posted a great animated history lesson here explaining why Russia is different from European countries... why its leaders act differently.
If you remember, it's the legacy of being conquered by the Mongols, who then went back to Mongolia and deputized the elites in the Russian city-states as their proxies to work the "slaves" and meet the quotas. You can argue that is similar to European feudalism at the time, and it is... except the Church was a moderating force in Europe, morally advocating for the rights of the peasants and persuading royals and leaders to improve their situations. In Russia, this was prevented by the Church being created as a tool of the elites to protect their interests. Bottom line, no matter the form of government in Russia, the people are seen as slaves by the leaders and the system. It's ingrained in their culture at this point. Putin and his cadre do not come from elite origins, but once they seized power they adopted the same view.
We can hope someone breaks that cycle, I guess.
2
Posted on 10/14/25 at 12:55 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Reportedly, if Jack Keane is to be believed, Iran is buying Chinese missile defense systems. Russian built was proven ineffective.
Chinese arms are just as bad as Russian arms...
Posted on 10/14/25 at 1:09 pm to Lee B
quote:
Someone posted a great animated history lesson here explaining why Russia is different from European countries... why its leaders act differently.
If you remember, it's the legacy of being conquered by the Mongols, who then went back to Mongolia and deputized the elites in the Russian city-states as their proxies to work the "slaves" and meet the quotas. You can argue that is similar to European feudalism at the time, and it is... except the Church was a moderating force in Europe, morally advocating for the rights of the peasants and persuading royals and leaders to improve their situations. In Russia, this was prevented by the Church being created as a tool of the elites to protect their interests. Bottom line, no matter the form of government in Russia, the people are seen as slaves by the leaders and the system. It's ingrained in their culture at this point. Putin and his cadre do not come from elite origins, but once they seized power they adopted the same view.
We can hope someone breaks that cycle, I guess.
Yes I agree, there are things about Russia the place, Russia the country, and the Russian people that will never change. My point was more about this form of Russia specifically, which is different from the USSR and Czarist Russia in a lot of ways.
While Russia isn't some bastion of freedom or anything, its not exactly the USSR or Nazi Germany either. I don't like to frame every single political, geopolitical, or miliary issue as comparable to WWII (like everyone who only has that as a historical reference point seem to do), but there are some parallels here when it comes to Germany post-WW1 up until WW2 being something that could happen in Russia in some form or another after this thing wraps up.
Posted on 10/14/25 at 1:15 pm to Auburn1968
quote:
Yeah, that reminds me of the OPEC crisis in my younger days. The black market will thrive though.
The early 70's crisis didn't affect SW Louisiana. The 1979 sort of did. I never saw lines more than 10 cars long. If you knew which station was going to get a shipment at night, then midnight was drive up to the pump and pump away. Dad commuted 35 miles one way and was never short on gasoline. At that, it was more of a panic shortage due only down 5% of capacity.
A high school classmate as an assist engineer on a tanker hauling gasoline to California from Norco and gasoline back from California to Norco on voyage charters for Shell. What he didn't know was that he was hauling UNLEADED base to CA and leaded gasoline back. California was the only state which required unleaded gasoline in those days. This is how conspiracy theories get started, ignorant of full facts.
Posted on 10/14/25 at 2:38 pm to cypher
Some of you may remember this farmer being murdered by a FPV drone.
Intro from the creator:
After I heard the news about Oleskander Gordienko being murdered last month, I decided to head to the farmlands he lived in to make a film about his legacy. He was a local legend and the Russians killed him to make a point. To try and silence powerful voices like his in Ukraine.
Most news coverage about Kherson focuses on the drone attacks against civilians in the city centre, so it felt really important to cover this in intimate detail. The farmers in this region have been through intense nightmares. First, the occupation, then the mining, then the drought and now FPVs.
Please share it with friends & family.
This is a documentary I shot and edited entirely myself - with no government funding or official sponsors. Thank you so much for watching.
Intro from the creator:
After I heard the news about Oleskander Gordienko being murdered last month, I decided to head to the farmlands he lived in to make a film about his legacy. He was a local legend and the Russians killed him to make a point. To try and silence powerful voices like his in Ukraine.
Most news coverage about Kherson focuses on the drone attacks against civilians in the city centre, so it felt really important to cover this in intimate detail. The farmers in this region have been through intense nightmares. First, the occupation, then the mining, then the drought and now FPVs.
Please share it with friends & family.
This is a documentary I shot and edited entirely myself - with no government funding or official sponsors. Thank you so much for watching.
Posted on 10/14/25 at 3:42 pm to Lee B
Sorry but Russia is not European in thinking at all. Peter the Great did bring European manufacturing to Russia and Catherine the Great was a German who brought German farmers to Russia, Otherwise, Russia is a mish mash of Tatar, Mongol and Slavic cultures based on Mongol corruption practices, more like the Mafia economy in that everyone in the hierarchic structure gets a piece of the payola. Meanwhile the peasants working class) get to steal be it not working productively or stealing a few baubles.
No it is not the USSR, but Russia did RULE the USSR. Its economy was based on sucking the blood out of its satellite economies.
No it is not the USSR, but Russia did RULE the USSR. Its economy was based on sucking the blood out of its satellite economies.
This post was edited on 10/14/25 at 3:45 pm
Posted on 10/14/25 at 4:40 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Sorry but Russia is not European in thinking at all. Peter the Great did bring European manufacturing to Russia and Catherine the Great was a German who brought German farmers to Russia, Otherwise, Russia is a mish mash of Tatar, Mongol and Slavic cultures based on Mongol corruption practices, more like the Mafia economy in that everyone in the hierarchic structure gets a piece of the payola. Meanwhile the peasants working class) get to steal be it not working productively or stealing a few baubles.
No it is not the USSR, but Russia did RULE the USSR. Its economy was based on sucking the blood out of its satellite economies.
No need for the sorry... I am in agreement with that and that's what I was saying.
Posted on 10/14/25 at 5:34 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
there are some parallels here when it comes to Germany post-WW1 up until WW2 being something that could happen in Russia in some form or another after this thing wraps up.
I agree with you on this. Russia is going to come out of this war weakened, humiliated and in poor economic condition. That sets the stage for someone to "restore the glory of the motherland" at some point in the future.
However, I think there could be one major difference, and that is Russia's demographic collapse, which is being accelerated by this war. It would be interesting to compare Russia's demographics after WW2 with where they currently are. Are there any parallels or inferences to be drawn?
Posted on 10/14/25 at 6:06 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Well yeah, if that is the metric you're going for then Russia won't meet it. Its also an impossible metric to hit. If a KPI is impossible to hit, its not a good KPI.
It's not my metric, it's Putin's himself:
Putin Repeatedly Emphasizes whoever Produces More Will Win
And I'd argue this keeping this conflict going is what is keeping Putin alive; once this thing is over if he doesn't have enough to show for it - and he doesn't right now - he's going to be the one flying out of a window.
quote:
There are two sides to this coin. Its to save vehicles ultimately, and yes partially that is because their stockpiles are running low. It also actually makes sense to transport things over rough terrain with something that essentially costs you nothing vs a vehicle that is far less easy to replace.
I'm sorry, there is no reason outside of sheer overwhelming desperation and stupidity, to use donkeys. It doesn't make them smart, it makes the poor, desparate, and vulnerable as F*ck.
PRAY FOR THE SOLDIERS IN UKRAINE
quote:
Russia in any kind of iteration similar to its current one will always have engrained flaws that cap their capabilities because they are essentially a criminal enterprise that daylights as a functioning government. The next iteration of Russia might not have those same issues.
We agree on this, but right now most analysists have Russia, once it descends into chaos, having real problems on the organized crime front:
Posted on 10/14/25 at 6:49 pm to Leopold
Zeihan is not the most credible source outside of demographics. He consistently claims to know about oil and refining, but knows next to zero. He knows zero about manufacturing as well.
It is quite likely that Russia splinters up. Organized crime will abound as it did in the 1990s. They could forge any document known to man.
We know that Putin stole the money meant to feed starving children in St. Petersburg as deputy mayor.
It is quite likely that Russia splinters up. Organized crime will abound as it did in the 1990s. They could forge any document known to man.
We know that Putin stole the money meant to feed starving children in St. Petersburg as deputy mayor.
Posted on 10/14/25 at 8:11 pm to Leopold
quote:
Russia doesn't have plenty of countries that want to buy their weapons anymore; China simply steals their designs and copies them, India recently signed a defense contract with us (it's one of the few things Trump has done that I'm for) and since the Russians are desperate for tanks and things for their own army there isn't going to be anything to sell - good luck trying to meet the orders for a country not named Russia.
The deal with India was small, and then Trump and Modi had a falling out, and India is completely back in Russia's grasp again. There's almost no way, anyway, for us to supply both India and Pakistan: it's just not possible to sell one of them a system to kill the other, and then not expect the other to buy the Russian system designed to defend against it.
There are 193 countries in the world, and there are a lot of those countries that the US is not going to sell arms to, which leaves Russia as often the best option.
Posted on 10/14/25 at 10:09 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
The deal with India was small, and then Trump and Modi had a falling out, and India is completely back in Russia's grasp again. There's almost no way, anyway, for us to supply both India and Pakistan: it's just not possible to sell one of them a system to kill the other, and then not expect the other to buy the Russian system designed to defend against it.
India has used Russian made weapons since India became a nation. It's always has close business dealing with Russia.
FWIW, there are some highly intelligent Indians and a few high skilled in their labor force, but the vast majority are extremely low IQ barefoot peasants even in chemical plants and refineries.
Posted on 10/14/25 at 10:13 pm to CitizenK
Posted on 10/14/25 at 10:26 pm to CitizenK
Yeah, I've told a bunch of people Zeihan is good with the 'big picture' stuff and really struggles on the details. I'm not impressed with his overall military knowledge, but he did get a couple of big things right.
Point is that Russia is screwed and is going to have problems attacking anyone after this war is done.
But to show that I'm open to other's opinions, here is a qualified expert saying that, yeah, Russia is a threat a few years after this war is over should they decide to be:
Point is that Russia is screwed and is going to have problems attacking anyone after this war is done.
But to show that I'm open to other's opinions, here is a qualified expert saying that, yeah, Russia is a threat a few years after this war is over should they decide to be:
Posted on 10/14/25 at 11:20 pm to Leopold
quote:
But to show that I'm open to other's opinions, here is a qualified expert saying that, yeah, Russia is a threat a few years after this war is over should they decide to be:
They are going to have to breed more donkeys and hope that troops don't use them as rear in the gear brides.
Posted on 10/15/25 at 5:39 am to CitizenK
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. Yes, I think that Trump is done messing around with Putin. Friday is going to feature some big announcements.
Also, right now Hegseth is in Brussels at the Ramstein meeting. He has skipped more recent meetings of this format, but he's there today, because the US now has a lot of weaponry available for the Europeans to buy for Ukraine.
Posted on 10/15/25 at 6:45 am to Leopold
quote:
It's not my metric, it's Putin's himself:
Why would that be?
Surely not because he is actively fighting against a force that is dependent on NATO supply currently.
Long term, out producing NATO (or not) doesn't matter because Russia can't beat NATO anyway because even if they can out produce NATO on artillery shells or something, they can't out produce NATO on things that actually win wars like ships, aircraft, etc. Thats why the metric is irrelevant. Even in the current state its more of a talking point than it is useful information.
quote:
I'm sorry, there is no reason outside of sheer overwhelming desperation and stupidity, to use donkeys. It doesn't make them smart, it makes the poor, desparate, and vulnerable as F*ck.
Actual military analysts have talked at length about why you would use donkeys (or mules, horses, etc) in certain situations here.
Posted on 10/15/25 at 6:50 am to Chromdome35
quote:
I agree with you on this. Russia is going to come out of this war weakened, humiliated and in poor economic condition. That sets the stage for someone to "restore the glory of the motherland" at some point in the future.
Yep, and that someone could possibly be cutting their teeth in Ukraine right now. What is their experience there teaching that person? Are they mad at Ukraine, the West, Russian leadership, or some combination of all of those? How is that currently shaping their worldview?
quote:
However, I think there could be one major difference, and that is Russia's demographic collapse, which is being accelerated by this war. It would be interesting to compare Russia's demographics after WW2 with where they currently are. Are there any parallels or inferences to be drawn?
I looked at Germany after WW1 leading up to WW2 to compare. They had some birth rate issues during the war (obviously) and afterwards because of economic issues. But their lowest points were still around double the births per 1,000 people that Russia has right now. Pretty silly numbers.
Even with population mattering less and less going forward (and in my view actually becoming more of a detriment at some point if you're over a certain threshold) those numbers are catastrophic for a country that has always been reliant on volume for relevance.
Posted on 10/15/25 at 6:54 am to T1gerNate
Ukraine has sure been pouring a lot of resources into putting up a strong, valiant defense for months on end in Pokrovsk for it to supposedly not matter at all according to some of you 
Posted on 10/15/25 at 7:31 am to VolSquatch
quote:
Ukraine has sure been pouring a lot of resources into putting up a strong, valiant defense for months on end in Pokrovsk for it to supposedly not matter at all according to some of you
I missed that. Something happened last night?
Pokrovsk is an anchor on the Ukrainian east wall.
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