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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted on 10/13/25 at 3:26 pm to No Colors
Posted on 10/13/25 at 3:26 pm to No Colors
In some ways, Russia is much more capable now than they were before the war. Russia has learned a number of lessons from this war that NATO simply hasn't processed yet. It's true that Russia will never again have the equipment reserves to fight a war like the one that they're fighting now. But the Russian industrial capacity will enable them to generate significant force that could still be very effective in a quick war.
In other words, if Russia gets a few years to rebuild, it will likely have a more effective fighting force in a quick war then it had in 2022. But it absolutely won't have the staying power to fight a long war, because the equipment won't exist.
In other words, if Russia gets a few years to rebuild, it will likely have a more effective fighting force in a quick war then it had in 2022. But it absolutely won't have the staying power to fight a long war, because the equipment won't exist.
1
Posted on 10/13/25 at 4:12 pm to Lee B
Wrong but I won't discuss here. Most will go down. Some will lose coverage because they are not Americans
Posted on 10/13/25 at 4:25 pm to No Colors
quote:
Something like 30,000 armored vehicles turned to scrap metal.
quote:
Followed closely by them burning through 25 million artillery rounds
I know you’re an Ole Miss fan but you might want to check math.
You’re claiming Russia has fired on average nearly 20,000 shells per day since the invasion began. That is absurd
Posted on 10/13/25 at 4:36 pm to texag7
They fired over 10 million the first year. They fired 60,000 tp 80,000 per day for about 100 straight days trying to take Bahkmut. So maybe it's closer to 20 million total. 
It's enough that they're making 3 million shells a year and would have completely run out if not for bringing in 3-5 million from North Korea. And they're still firing more than they're making.
So whatever the number is, they don't have the shells or the tubes to plough a field across an 800 mile front like they did a few years ago.
I always heard Russia had a 10:1 artillery advantage. And Ukraine had about 2 million 152mm rounds to start the war. And we gave them over 1 million cluster 155s and another 2 million cluater 105s. Plus at least another 1 million solid case 155s. Plus didn't they purchase 1 million 152s through the Czech program?
That's something like 5 million Ukraine shells. Is the balance of artillery really less than 5:1?
ETA: i asked perplexity AI how many artillery shells Russia has fired in Ukraine and this was the answer:
So it seems my estimates might be conservative.
25 million would be about 19,000 per day. Which is about half of what AI is saying.
Maybe my Mississippi math ain't so bad???
It's enough that they're making 3 million shells a year and would have completely run out if not for bringing in 3-5 million from North Korea. And they're still firing more than they're making.
So whatever the number is, they don't have the shells or the tubes to plough a field across an 800 mile front like they did a few years ago.
I always heard Russia had a 10:1 artillery advantage. And Ukraine had about 2 million 152mm rounds to start the war. And we gave them over 1 million cluster 155s and another 2 million cluater 105s. Plus at least another 1 million solid case 155s. Plus didn't they purchase 1 million 152s through the Czech program?
That's something like 5 million Ukraine shells. Is the balance of artillery really less than 5:1?
ETA: i asked perplexity AI how many artillery shells Russia has fired in Ukraine and this was the answer:
quote:
Daily firing rates have been reported in the tens of thousands range at various times, reflecting heavy artillery use. For example, some analyses and briefings cited Russian daily rates around 60,000–70,000 shells at peak periods, and others around 27,000–40,000 shells per day after countermeasures reduced the rate. These figures are moving targets and are often disputed or framed within the uncertainties of battlefield reporting. ???
So it seems my estimates might be conservative.
25 million would be about 19,000 per day. Which is about half of what AI is saying.
Maybe my Mississippi math ain't so bad???
This post was edited on 10/13/25 at 4:48 pm
Posted on 10/13/25 at 4:54 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:Which reminds me of the time I was walking back to my hotel in Moscow one Sunday afternoon after having walked to a McDonald's (GASP!!) for lunch and I saw this overweight, man & woman speaking English very loudly, so I immediately knew they were Americans.
Gotta go back to the days of printing out maps
They were standing on the sidewalk near the steps of the Intourist Hotel, which was the cheapest hotel in Moscow for foreigners. It was built during Soviet times.
The man was holding a street map unfolded in front of him and he was rotating it 90 degrees every few seconds.
From 25 feet away I heard him say, "Martha, I can't read this damn map I picked up! It's in Russian!!!"
I thought to myself, "You're in the capital of the Russian Federation and you pick up a street map and you're surprised it's in Russian?!? I mean, what are the odds of that?!"
So, when I got into normal talking range I asked them, "Is there some place specifically I can help you find on the map?"
The wife said, "Oh, yes, please!"
The husband then aimed the map at me and said, "We're looking for the damn subway station. They told us at the hotel desk it was near the hotel."
I said "Where would you like to go?"
The woman said "We'd like to go to Ismeatloaf Market. We're told there is a large outdoor market open there every Sunday selling authentic Russian souvenirs."
I said, "Well, first of all, the market is pronounced Izmailovsky Market and yes it does have numerous kiosks selling souvenirs."
"Second of all, the subway here is called the Metro, not subway, and each underground Metro station has a round blue sign with a black "M" on it on the sidewalk where the stairs are to walk down to the station. See that sign right there?"
And I pointed to the Metro sign which was no more than 20 feet from where they were standing.
I then told them, "Walk down to the Metro station, take the train going to your left, get off in 3 stops, walk down more steps at that station to the Orange line train and take the train going left for 6 stops. When almost everyone gets off at that stop, get off and follow the crowd. They are going to Izmailovsky Market which is about a 10 minute walk from the Metro exit."
I then showed the man on his map what I had just told him and pointed out Izmailovsky Market, which was in Cyrillic, of course.
The man grumbled a thank you but what the wife said caught me completely off guard.
She said, "Thank you so much! And may I say, your English is just perfect!"
All I could mutter back was, "Thank you." And they went to the steps leading down to the Metro station. I stood there for a minute congratulating myself for speaking perfect English.
Posted on 10/13/25 at 5:20 pm to texag7
quote:
You’re claiming Russia has fired on average nearly 20,000 shells per day since the invasion began. That is absurd
It sounds insane but it isn’t. It’s why the Russian military was actually feared despite its incompetence- they just had so much.
I believe that it is estimated that they are now down to about 10-15k rounds per day, largely coming from the North Koreans also insanely huge reserves.
Posted on 10/13/25 at 5:36 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
In some ways, Russia is much more capable now than they were before the war
quote:
In other words, if Russia gets a few years to rebuild
I understand why people would believe this, but this needs to be made clear.
Russia is not coming back from this and their military has grown exponentially weaker.
Their demographics were in a death spiral even before this war and now it’s only a matter of time before the country collapses. Russia already has a severe labor shortage that is getting worse by the day, they are going massively into debt, they west - especially Europe- is not coming back to help them anytime soon, and they are one of the single most corrupt and incompetent countries on earth. Russia, to put it politely, is F’d.
It’s why they’re continuing to double and triple down on this stupid war; it’s their last hoorah as a military power, at least in this century. It’s also one of the reasons Europe is staying out of it so far, because they know this so they see the smart play as letting the Russians blow their load.
Once this war is done it’s nukes and drones that has to worried about, not a war of expansion.
Posted on 10/13/25 at 5:45 pm to Leopold
Leopold. I heard there is an opening in the boiler room. You get the call yet?
This post was edited on 10/13/25 at 6:11 pm
Posted on 10/13/25 at 5:59 pm to Leopold
quote:
It’s why they’re continuing to double and triple down on this stupid war; it’s their last hoorah as a military power, at least in this century. It’s also one of the reasons Europe is staying out of it so far, because they know this so they see the smart play as letting the Russians blow their load.
Once this war is done it’s nukes and drones that has to worried about, not a war of expansion.
Within 20 years there will not be enough ethnic Russians in the Western part of the country to hold all of the other ethnic groups and regions at bay, anymore... if the economy doesn't collapse and Moscow can't afford to administer/patrol them before then... and at that point, "Russia" disintegrates into a lot of different ethnic enclaves/countries... and that's without China grabbing areas they want, and Finland, Sweden, and Japan trying to grab back areas they lost at some point to Russia.
Posted on 10/13/25 at 6:00 pm to Leopold
Russia still has enough mass to still take the Baltic States, not enough to take Poland. It would need to hide a concentration of forces out of view of satellites and drones.
Then again, NATO air dominance would devastate any attempt at invading columns regardless of how many S400's are guarding them.
Any new Baltic Fleet after such an attempt would have glass bottoms to see the present Baltic Fleet. Blockades above Finland, the Baltic Straits and Dardanelles would deny Russia of all but a tiny cash flow except from exports out of its Pacific coast.
The real problem is that whoever might be head of Russia would be crazy enough to try.
Then again, NATO air dominance would devastate any attempt at invading columns regardless of how many S400's are guarding them.
Any new Baltic Fleet after such an attempt would have glass bottoms to see the present Baltic Fleet. Blockades above Finland, the Baltic Straits and Dardanelles would deny Russia of all but a tiny cash flow except from exports out of its Pacific coast.
The real problem is that whoever might be head of Russia would be crazy enough to try.
This post was edited on 10/13/25 at 6:06 pm
Posted on 10/13/25 at 6:17 pm to CitizenK
and you're not figuring in "hybrid warfare." Even Putin tried to get people on his side elected wherever before resorting to military means...
Posted on 10/13/25 at 6:44 pm to Lee B
quote:
and you're not figuring in "hybrid warfare." Even Putin tried to get people on his side elected wherever before resorting to military means...
We are talking about th Baltic States. Everyone there knows Russian ways of subterfuge. This isn't Hungary with Orban obviously sucking up to Putin
Posted on 10/13/25 at 6:56 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Russia still has enough mass to still take the Baltic States,
See, I tend to believe that but then again, they couldn’t retake Kursk without help. They still haven’t taken Kubyansk or the Donast Oblast (sp). So if they can’t take towns of 26,000 how are they going to take entire countries that will absolutely have NATO support of some kind?
Posted on 10/13/25 at 7:24 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
it also boosts the President's popularity at a time when it gives him greater leverage against the Democrats in the shutdown fight.
I’m no fan of Trump and look forward to his exit from political office. But it’s a matter of objective fact that Trump has a great opportunity here that could end the Ukraine war also. While Trump has done a very long list of boneheaded moves, he is in a very strong position right now. I hope he asserts American power to reign Russia in. He’s a chaos actor who could paradoxically stabilize the west with a strong move here.
Posted on 10/13/25 at 7:54 pm to Leopold
A harsh assessment of Russia from the head of NATO
ETA english version
quote:
"In 2022, Russia thought it could crush Ukraine in a matter of days. In the fourth year of its brutal war, Russia is barely making any headway... Its Mediterranean Task Force was once a mix of surface ships, submarines and support vessels. Now, in effect, the Russian naval presence in the Mediterranean is almost nonexistent. A lone and broken Russian submarine limps home from patrol. How different from Tom Clancy's 1984 novel The Hunt for Red October! Today, it's more like hunting for the nearest mechanic!".
ETA english version
This post was edited on 10/13/25 at 7:58 pm
Posted on 10/13/25 at 7:59 pm to Chromdome35
It feels like the war is starting its transition into its next phase.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 10/13/25 at 7:59 pm to Leopold
quote:
their military has grown exponentially weaker.
With all due respect, I disagree.
Russia is continuing to scale up defense industrial system. There was a recent leak of new T-90 tank production, and it's a huge increase from previous levels. Russia's missile technology has significantly advanced even from the start of the war.
Unless Russia endures a complete collapse, that defense industry will have to continue. Any peace will result in many soldiers, returning to civilian life and needing jobs, and there's no way that the Russian economy would be able to handle all the layoffs from the defense industry. Besides, Russia still has plenty of countries who want to purchase their weapons, and that cash will continue to fuel defense innovation and upscaled production.
As I said earlier, I think Russia is now much, much weaker in any long war. But it will leave this conflict as a more dangerous foe in a quick strike scenario.
Posted on 10/13/25 at 9:06 pm to GOP_Tiger
On a Times Radio YouTube, Ukraine's Operator Starsky said the same about Russia building up its tank army with new T80s
He also stated that the US might give 10 Tomahawks but the more important was satellite intel for Ukraine's drones and its Flamingo cruise missiles
He also stated that the US might give 10 Tomahawks but the more important was satellite intel for Ukraine's drones and its Flamingo cruise missiles
Posted on 10/13/25 at 11:16 pm to CitizenK
quote:
quote:
and you're not figuring in "hybrid warfare." Even Putin tried to get people on his side elected wherever before resorting to military means...
We are talking about th Baltic States. Everyone there knows Russian ways of subterfuge. This isn't Hungary with Orban obviously sucking up to Putin
That is one aspect of Hybrid warfare... more of a threat in Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria... it HAD been a long-running thing in the Baltics but they were focused on stopping it, and expelled the Russian citizens when all this started.
I read this a little while ago:
The Jamestown Foundation: Russia’s Hybrid Warfare Tactics Target the Baltics
On May 9, 2024, a fire broke out at an IKEA warehouse in Vilnius, Lithuania (Lrytas, May 20, 2024). Subsequent investigations revealed that the arson was orchestrated by Russia’s military intelligence agency, the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (GRU), and that the suspects were also planning similar attacks in Latvia (LRT, March 17). The Lithuanian Prosecutor General’s Office classified the incident as an act of terrorism aimed at intimidating the societies of Lithuania and pressuring them to reduce support for Ukraine (LRT, March 17).
Russia’s hybrid warfare strategy extends beyond its war against Ukraine as it also targets other European frontline states through influence operations, election interference, and intimidation. The Baltic States—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—are targeted by Russian hybrid tactics as a daily reality and direct challenge to their sovereignty.
Historically, Moscow has used political, economic, energy, and cyber tactics to undermine the Baltics. Recent efforts, however, are markedly more aggressive, particularly as they involve military pressure. Understanding the origins of Russia’s hybrid strategy is crucial to recognizing its evolving influence in the region.
...
Posted on 10/14/25 at 12:11 am to Lee B
Some years ago, Russia unleashed cyber warfare on the Baltic nations which caused chaos. Since that time, Ukraine has helped them to harden their internet services
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