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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

Posted on 10/15/25 at 4:54 pm to
Posted by Auburn1968
NYC
Member since Mar 2019
27103 posts
Posted on 10/15/25 at 4:54 pm to


Posted by Leopold
Columbia
Member since Sep 2013
2313 posts
Posted on 10/15/25 at 5:01 pm to
quote:

If your house burns down really slowly it actually never really burnt down. Or so I’ve been told


Huh. Didn't think of it that way.

Try it, let us know how it goes.
Posted by Camp Randall
The Shadow of the Valley of Death
Member since Nov 2005
17633 posts
Posted on 10/15/25 at 5:04 pm to
If you set your house on fire and it takes 1,275 years to burn down did it really burn down from your perspective?
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42866 posts
Posted on 10/15/25 at 5:05 pm to
quote:

If your house burns down really slowly it actually never really burnt down. Or so I’ve been told


“If you r catches fire, but burns slowly; there’s a better chance you can put out the fire.”
Alfred E. Neuman
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16290 posts
Posted on 10/15/25 at 5:06 pm to
quote:

Granted, it's almost a century ago and he was talking about the Soviets, not the Russians, but the situation is the same. Their logistics suck and while donkeys might be the correct answer in a mountainous insurgency such as one would find in Afghanistan it isn't the correct answer in flat-as-a-pancake force-on-force conflict with the opposing side having drones and possibly superior air power.


They still load rail cars and trucks with crates instead of on pallets. So each artillery shell, or whatnot, has to be handled one at a time. We used pallets of crates in WWII. Russia has WWI logistics.

Now they might use 20 and 40 foot containers but still loaded by hand instead of on pallets using forklifts, at the factory, distribution supply depots then at the front.

Donkeys actually fit their logistics system IQ
This post was edited on 10/15/25 at 5:08 pm
Posted by Leopold
Columbia
Member since Sep 2013
2313 posts
Posted on 10/15/25 at 5:22 pm to
quote:

Donkeys actually fit their logistics system IQ

Christ, that sounds like why some people are still reading Curious George or Goosebumps at 30

"It actually fits their IQ"
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
135140 posts
Posted on 10/15/25 at 6:49 pm to
quote:

By the time the battle for Stalingrad happened the Soviets didn't really have a shortage of guns anymore.
In July, 1942??

quote:

The Soviets faced significant supply challenges during the Battle of Stalingrad, particularly in the early stages, but they managed to maintain critical supply lines across the Volga River, which were vital for their defense and counteroffensive operations. Over time, they adapted their strategies to improve their supply situation, ultimately contributing to their victory. - Wikipedia Encyclopedia Britannica

Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8202 posts
Posted on 10/15/25 at 6:56 pm to
As a person who enjoys history and particularly military history, I have an observation of this war that I believe helps explain Russia's poor showing on the battlefield.

A page ago, someone mentioned the move "Enemy at the Gates" about the battle for Stalingrad. The movie did a good job of demonstrating what a Russian "Meat Wave" attack really looks like. In WW2, Russia was able to overwhelm the Germans through sheer numbers. Russia has always relied on quantity vs quality. This is the perspective of Russia that I had at the beginning of this war. They would overwhelm Ukraine through sheer numbers.

That didn't happen.

There is an endless supply of video from this war. I have seen almost no evidence of Russia employing overwhelming attacks. When you see video of close combat, it's not 300 guys storming the trenches; it's usually a small number (10) of troops. Russia appears to have abandoned its traditional strategy of quantity vs. quality. And that is one of the reasons they are under performing, their military has no real history of success with small unit action which is the exact way they are fighting this war.

Thoughts?
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16290 posts
Posted on 10/15/25 at 7:04 pm to
the Lend Lease supplies didn't really start arriving until late 1942. The Russian factories had to also be relocated to the Urals and beyond. A minsta of the Russian air force was the Bell P-39, the Air Cobra with a few arriving in 1940 were not really being cranked out until well into 1942. These were necessary to fight the Luftwaffe.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16290 posts
Posted on 10/15/25 at 7:19 pm to
quote:

There is an endless supply of video from this war. I have seen almost no evidence of Russia employing overwhelming attacks. When you see video of close combat, it's not 300 guys storming the trenches; it's usually a small number (10) of troops. Russia appears to have abandoned its traditional strategy of quantity vs. quality. And that is one of the reasons they are under performing, their military has no real history of success with small unit action which is the exact way they are fighting this war.



It seems to be more a squadron being followed by another squadron, whether the first squadron obtains any objectives or not. Stell meat waves though not like the Chicoms at Chosin in the Korean War with 2nd and 3rd waves haveing to pick up weapons from the dead 1st wave
Posted by T1gerNate
Member since Feb 2020
3697 posts
Posted on 10/15/25 at 7:23 pm to
Posted by texag7
College Station
Member since Apr 2014
41503 posts
Posted on 10/15/25 at 8:51 pm to
Looks like Russia is gaining a lot of ground…
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16290 posts
Posted on 10/15/25 at 9:06 pm to
In your mind
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42866 posts
Posted on 10/15/25 at 9:18 pm to
I notice that Bakmuth is on that map. After more than a year of heavy fighting Russia captured it all in September of 2023. I remember people here speculating about a big Russian breakthrough.

Look at Bakmuth and notice the battle lines haven’t moved a whole lot farther West, and that has been over two years since the capture.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8202 posts
Posted on 10/15/25 at 9:20 pm to
Yes, until you pay attention to the scale of the maps and realise that they have spent all year and barely gone more than a couple of KM anywhere.
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42866 posts
Posted on 10/15/25 at 9:31 pm to
quote:

Yes, until you pay attention to the scale of the maps and realise that they have spent all year and barely gone more than a couple of KM anywhere.


When you measure success by capturing warehouses and villages; you know things aren’t really going your way.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8202 posts
Posted on 10/15/25 at 9:32 pm to
According to the map scale, In Bakhmut, Russia has advanced about 60KM...since the start of the war 3.5 years ago. Meaning Russia has advanced less than 20 kilometers per year...about 10 miles.

In the more southern region west of Donetsk, according to the map scale, Russia has advanced around 110km since the start of the war. 31km per year...19.2miles per year.

To put that glacial advance in perspective, during WW2, as Russia drove Germany backwards in 1943, Russia drove the Germans from Kursk to the Dnieper river, a distance of 400-600km in 4 months, averaging around 125km per month

As Russia drove Germany from the Smolensk region to Warsaw Poland, they pushed 600-800Km in 8 weeks for an average of 300 to 400km a month.

Russia's average rate of advance in Ukraine to date is about 2.5km a month.
This post was edited on 10/15/25 at 9:35 pm
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42866 posts
Posted on 10/15/25 at 9:51 pm to
Just over a mile and s half per day. I walk that far in the afternoon now.

Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8202 posts
Posted on 10/15/25 at 9:55 pm to
Your math is wrong

2.5km per month = .052 miles per day

275 feet per day.
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42866 posts
Posted on 10/15/25 at 9:59 pm to
quote:

Your math is wrong


My math is correct. 2.5 KM=1.55 miles.

My time frame was wrong. I should have posted month not day.
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