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2
Posted on 8/12/20 at 10:30 am to jatilen
Actually, Nate was criticized by liberals before Election Day 2016 because his model was considered to be far too generous to Trump. Many thought it ridiculous that Trump was given a near-30% chance of victory.
Sure, they ended up with egg on their faces, but Silver was actually one of the fairest and most objective analysts at the time. Trump's victory actually vindicated him in a certain sense, since he had given Trump the highest odds of winning compared to other analysts.
Sure, they ended up with egg on their faces, but Silver was actually one of the fairest and most objective analysts at the time. Trump's victory actually vindicated him in a certain sense, since he had given Trump the highest odds of winning compared to other analysts.
Posted on 8/12/20 at 10:36 am to Ted2010
quote:
It’s over. Biden has a 71% chance of winning
totally meaningless
Biden wins - see I am right!
Trump wins - well I did say he had a 3rd of a chance
This literally says nothing.
I did some calculations this AM and I believe Trump has a 56.23519% chance of winning.
Prove me wrong.
Posted on 8/12/20 at 10:36 am to Ted2010
quote:
They know what they are doing. They are trying to demoralize those on the fence and swing them to Biden
Also, if you have these poll numbers out there, you can make cheating far more justifiable.
Even if the vote tampering is discovered they can just say it was isolated and if you look at the poll numbers, you can see he didn't have a shot in the first place.
Posted on 8/12/20 at 10:38 am to Ted2010
Hillary's chances of winning in 2016 was listed between 91-99%. 
How did that work out?
How did that work out?
Posted on 8/12/20 at 10:45 am to Ted2010
you can't trust any polls because people don't even answer them truthfully anymore.
I say Biden because if it looks like Biden will win, maybe more people that weren't planning to vote feel the urgency to go vote if they are a Republican.
I say Biden because if it looks like Biden will win, maybe more people that weren't planning to vote feel the urgency to go vote if they are a Republican.
Posted on 8/12/20 at 10:45 am to westide
quote:
Hillary's chances of winning in 2016 was listed between 91-99%
We need to be careful with this sort of argument because this is "Michigan vs. Appalachian State" logic. Sure, Michigan had a 99% chance of winning, and Appalachian State beat the odds and scored a historic upset. But that doesn't mean that Appalachian State is favored to win the rematch when the two teams meet again.
Posted on 8/12/20 at 10:47 am to LSUSkip
quote:
maybe more people that weren't planning to vote feel the urgency to go vote if they are a Republican.
Unfortunately it usually works the other way. The side that is trailing in the polls tends to respond with deflation rather than urgency. And undecided/swing voters see the leading candidate and decided to hop on the bandwagon.
Posted on 8/12/20 at 10:47 am to AnyonebutSteelers
quote:
We need to be careful with this sort of argument because this is "Michigan vs. Appalachian State" logic. Sure, Michigan had a 99% chance of winning, and Appalachian State beat the odds and scored a historic upset. But that doesn't mean that Appalachian State is favored to win the rematch when the two teams meet again.
They would have been if they had been allowed to play other big schools afterward and beat the shite out of all of them and had there team coming back.
you know, like Trump
Posted on 8/12/20 at 10:48 am to Ted2010
Yea, Biden can't lose. 
Posted on 8/12/20 at 11:00 am to gthog61
quote:
totally meaningless
Exactly. It’s pure bullshite
Posted on 8/12/20 at 11:02 am to LNCHBOX
IKR? hitlery had a double digit lead in some polls up to election night!
Posted on 8/12/20 at 11:07 am to GeneralLee
Florida is Trump. Even Miami the Cubans do not like this socialist shite. I see Trump shite everywhere in Florida but Gainesville.
Posted on 8/12/20 at 11:09 am to Gatorbait2008
quote:
Florida is Trump. Even Miami, the Cubans do not like this socialist shite.
Miami went 64% for Hillary four years ago.
Posted on 8/12/20 at 11:09 am to MsHoghunter
the ONLY way biden wins is thru massive voter fraud.
Posted on 8/12/20 at 11:09 am to Ted2010
quote:No, he didn't.
This same guy had Hillary with a 89% chance of winning in 2016.
Posted on 8/12/20 at 11:16 am to oogabooga68
quote:
Conservatives should burn the country to the ground.
And that's the thing. They won't. Because Conservatives, for the largest part, are limp dick chicken shite mother frickers who would rather talk about what "Tucker said on his show" than fight for something in the streets at a mass scale.
Posted on 8/12/20 at 11:20 am to Ted2010
quote:97% chance of winning is only a "small advantage" now...
Clinton had only a small advantage in most surveys
Posted on 8/12/20 at 11:22 am to lsuoilengr
And if this happens, conservatives will make these small disturbances like Portland look like Boy Scout picnic.
Armed groups will target the shite stirrers like So-sure, Pegloosie, and the like.
Dems would find out just how many weapons are in the hands of Patriots.
And who would stop the violence? Police? Military? Antifa? Dems?
I don't think so. So pray the Dems are not that stupid to stoke a Hornets nest.
Armed groups will target the shite stirrers like So-sure, Pegloosie, and the like.
Dems would find out just how many weapons are in the hands of Patriots.
And who would stop the violence? Police? Military? Antifa? Dems?
I don't think so. So pray the Dems are not that stupid to stoke a Hornets nest.
Posted on 8/12/20 at 11:25 am to Ted2010
Clemson had a 72 percent chance of winning the 2020 NCG. How'd that work out?
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