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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 8/17/20 at 7:54 pm to Big Scrub TX
Posted on 8/17/20 at 7:54 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Maybe. Europe went from X to almost 0. We went from X to still a lot.
You are still assuming the whole country had the first wave at the same time. New York has gone from a ton to almost nothing. Just like those European countries. Now other areas are being hit with their first wave, and soon enough they will have deaths plummet. And even with having most of the south and west coast in a first wave right now, our deaths are half what they were when the northeast had their first wave.
In my opinion, the biggest mistake we have made was shutting down the whole country at once back in March. We had areas that had absolutely no COVID cases shutting down. Now that those areas in the south and west actually are having their first wave, the citizens are very resistant to shutdowns because we already went through months of shutdowns for seemingly no reason at all.
Also, schools are open in Tennessee for the most part
0
Posted on 8/17/20 at 7:56 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
We're not really having school openings, so there's that.
Do what? My arse has been teaching a week and a half.
Posted on 8/17/20 at 8:47 pm to Chromdome35
I put together the following charts to use in a conversation I was having with one of my liberal friends. For most of the people on the board, this won't be a surprise.
In the chart below, you can see NY's early case spike and then the spikes of FL, TX, AZ, CA. Texas, Florida, and California have all reached daily case numbers higher than New York.
Looking at deaths a much different picture emerges. At the peak of its outbreak, NY was suffering over 700 deaths a day. Texas has just barely broken 200. (the weird spike in NY's numbers back in May was caused by some data issues from their reporting.)
Looking at hospitalization data you can see where again, NY far exceeds the next three highest states. (FL didn't start reporting hospitalization data until early July)
Finally, the difference in NY's mortality rate and Tx, Fl, CA, and AZ
I am fairly certain that NY's strategy of sending COVID patients into nursing homes is what is causing the disparity of outcomes. Fredo's brother should be hung.
In the chart below, you can see NY's early case spike and then the spikes of FL, TX, AZ, CA. Texas, Florida, and California have all reached daily case numbers higher than New York.
Looking at deaths a much different picture emerges. At the peak of its outbreak, NY was suffering over 700 deaths a day. Texas has just barely broken 200. (the weird spike in NY's numbers back in May was caused by some data issues from their reporting.)
Looking at hospitalization data you can see where again, NY far exceeds the next three highest states. (FL didn't start reporting hospitalization data until early July)
Finally, the difference in NY's mortality rate and Tx, Fl, CA, and AZ
I am fairly certain that NY's strategy of sending COVID patients into nursing homes is what is causing the disparity of outcomes. Fredo's brother should be hung.
This post was edited on 8/17/20 at 8:49 pm
Posted on 8/17/20 at 9:20 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
I do understand the intra-country point you are making. But certainly we could have learned enough to have lessened that effect, right?
Of course, but fortunately we did not and are now closer to herd immunity.
Posted on 8/17/20 at 9:25 pm to AUMIS01
quote:
We're definitely on the back end of this spike, only question now is how big is the next one?
In Orleans and Jefferson Parishes we just had our second wave, and it was barely a ripple.
Posted on 8/17/20 at 9:38 pm to Penrod
I probably said it a little clunky, but yeah that's what I'm getting at. There will be additional "spikes" as things reopen, BUT I would expect they will get smaller and smaller, in some cases dramatically smaller than the one before.
It's entirely possible I'm wrong, but I'm starting to believe the HIT really is around 20% for this thing.
It's entirely possible I'm wrong, but I'm starting to believe the HIT really is around 20% for this thing.
Posted on 8/17/20 at 10:00 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
We're not really having school openings, so there's that.
What areas are you talking about? Schools here (many places in Louisiana) are open.
Posted on 8/17/20 at 11:07 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
we are definitely in a Kamala Harris (going down) pattern now.
Gotta keep that sense of humor through this...I like it.
Posted on 8/18/20 at 1:08 am to AUMIS01
quote:
It's entirely possible I'm wrong, but I'm starting to believe the HIT really is around 20% for this thing.
My rural parish is approaching 4% of the total population testing positive. Assuming 5x more untested mild or asymptomatic cases, we should be at or near herd immunity. I'd like for it to be true, but no sign of it so far. Yesterday we had our highest number of new cases so far.
Posted on 8/18/20 at 7:32 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
Yesterday we had our highest number of new cases so far.
You'll start sloping down within 7 days.
Posted on 8/18/20 at 7:55 am to Chromdome35
Damn, it feels good to be reinstated.
Posted on 8/18/20 at 8:08 am to Chromdome35
Fredo's brother is POS and should have just thanked Trump and the STFU.
BTW- I think your first chart would look different if adjusted for available tests.
Found some charts online and thought some here may appreciate- the one thing I have enjoyed (if one can take any pleasure in this) is the different ways to visualize statistics, numbers, analytics, etc....
Liked these too:
Is there a consensus on whether the US is in the first or second wave?
Rando first post for me since page 10 or so, but I lurk every day. Keep it up.
I personally believe that, without number frickery, we are nosediving.
BTW- I think your first chart would look different if adjusted for available tests.
Found some charts online and thought some here may appreciate- the one thing I have enjoyed (if one can take any pleasure in this) is the different ways to visualize statistics, numbers, analytics, etc....
Liked these too:
Is there a consensus on whether the US is in the first or second wave?
Rando first post for me since page 10 or so, but I lurk every day. Keep it up.
I personally believe that, without number frickery, we are nosediving.
Posted on 8/18/20 at 8:21 am to PhDoogan
quote:
Is there a consensus on whether the US is in the first or second wave?
First wave, just hit different parts of the country at different times.
Posted on 8/18/20 at 8:47 am to bbap
quote:
First wave, just hit different parts of the country at different times.
Maybe in Louisiana?
Posted on 8/18/20 at 10:46 am to PhDoogan
Under 4,000 cases on a Tuesday in Florida. This is really looking good. Deaths still up. That should drop within a week or so.
Posted on 8/18/20 at 11:06 am to PhDoogan
quote:
Maybe in Louisiana?
I'm thinking Louisiana had the the initial Mardi Gras-tourism induced wave in line with the Northeast, and this "second wave" is in line with what would have been our normal "seasonal" effect as the rest of the Sun Belt just experienced.
Posted on 8/18/20 at 12:01 pm to Crimsonians
Almost exactly a 2k case drop from last Tuesday. Pretty safe to say that a 33% drop in 1 week is significant. Let's hope it continues!
Posted on 8/18/20 at 12:02 pm to AUMIS01
deaths are going to be declining very soon.
Posted on 8/18/20 at 12:03 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Yeah, I had hoped for this week, but we'll definitely see it turning down by next week at the latest. Still hoping to see a <1k death day between now and Saturday. Don't think today is going to be that day though.
Posted on 8/18/20 at 1:00 pm to PhDoogan
quote:
Maybe in Louisiana?
I was thinking the same thing - if any place had 2 waves, it was Louisiana.
Louisiana - the "special" child of the United States family.
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