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Message
re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 3/20/20 at 12:05 am to tiger91
Posted on 3/20/20 at 12:05 am to tiger91
quote:
4). I still don’t understand why it is said that millions will die. Are models that skewed??
I Might be able to tackle this one.
In circumstances where the outbreak went unabated - meaning we didn’t react - it would likely spread until about 40% of the population developed immunity.
40% immunity is the threshold where experts say an outbreak begins die. Another way to look at this is it occurs when an infected person only infects 1 other person.
Right now an infected COVID person infects on average between 2-3 more people.
Social distancing is designed to reduce the “2-3” figure down to 1 or less.
So at this point it’s pretty simple math. If no actions were taken, it’s possible millions could die as COVID is a expected to have a morality rate of around 1%. So, 1% of 40% of our population would easily exceed 1M casualties.
With social distancing being implemented this early in an outbreak, we can expect infections to flatten to a linear scale instead of exponential. If not decline within a few weeks. Casualties will follow.
I don’t think we get more than 75k-100k casualties for the year. I’d be suprised if we got that with these extreme measures TBH.
And if warm humid weather helps - it just gets lower.
All that being said, our public officials are trying to slow the spread so we can ensure those who need medical treatment are able to receive it. That number is anywhere from 5-15% of the cases.
This post was edited on 3/20/20 at 12:23 am
1
Posted on 3/20/20 at 12:31 am to BobBoucher
And we I’m assuming will never know when we reach 49%. I guess I’m just the realistic type about death as I work in a nursing home. As harsh and unchristian as this will sound, it would be a blessing for some of our residents if they would peacefully leave this world as many are DNR but I doubt that this would be a peaceful death. I’m not an advocate of helping them get there but I see suffering and that breaks my heart.
Anyway thanks again to you and chrome. And yes I’m good at some things — taking care of my family and my peoe at the home. Years ago I actually researched for my thesis — that part of my brain has been closed for business.
Anyway thanks again to you and chrome. And yes I’m good at some things — taking care of my family and my peoe at the home. Years ago I actually researched for my thesis — that part of my brain has been closed for business.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 4:05 am to tiger91
Here’s the thing that I’d like to know: when all the panic stops and people gain some sanity, what exactly is gonna happen to the economy? Tourism and retail are near the point of cracking.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 5:46 am to clhawkins19
I was never really good at math, so someone help me out.......
There have been roughly 250,000 reported cases of corona. There are roughly 7,530,000,000 people on the planet. Assuming these numbers are correct, that’s .00332% of the world’s population.
Let’s assume that the reported cases is way lower than actual. Let’s say it’s 100x worse than reported to get us to 25,000,000. That means that .332% of the world’s population is effected.
I won’t even do the math on the death rates.
There have been roughly 250,000 reported cases of corona. There are roughly 7,530,000,000 people on the planet. Assuming these numbers are correct, that’s .00332% of the world’s population.
Let’s assume that the reported cases is way lower than actual. Let’s say it’s 100x worse than reported to get us to 25,000,000. That means that .332% of the world’s population is effected.
I won’t even do the math on the death rates.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:02 am to Chromdome35
I may be overlooking it but is there a graph or count on the tracker for the total number of people that have been tested? Any information on that as well as a state by state breakdown.
It might be helpful to see the total number of tests in order to give the current infected, serious cases, and death numbers to give the graphs more perspective.
Thanks for the info you're providing
It might be helpful to see the total number of tests in order to give the current infected, serious cases, and death numbers to give the graphs more perspective.
Thanks for the info you're providing
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:13 am to Aubie Spr96
So the log scaled slope of total deaths ticked up last night, will be interesting to see if that continue to plays out.
Extrapolating that 3 day trend, if that continues to play out we are looking at ~78 deaths today.
Extrapolating that 3 day trend, if that continues to play out we are looking at ~78 deaths today.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:13 am to Govt Tide
I haven't found that info anywhere. You are right it would be VERY helpful. It would also be helpful if they would publish the number of hospitalizations.
I suspect they aren't releasing either of those numbers because for tests, it would make them look bad and for hostpitals they don't want to create panic.
Thank you!
I suspect they aren't releasing either of those numbers because for tests, it would make them look bad and for hostpitals they don't want to create panic.
Thank you!
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:18 am to Chromdome35
Obviously the more we test the more positive cases we find. But what is the ratio of positive to eat to negative test? Is some on be tracking that data?
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:24 am to JOJO Hammer
quote:
Obviously the more we test the more positive cases we find. But what is the ratio of positive to eat to negative test? Is some on be tracking that data?
I think % is going to vary wildly based on number of available tests. As the number of available tests go up or down, you will see marked trends upward or downward of positive vs nevative tests.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:46 am to Chromdome35
Has the President locked Dr Fauci in his room for contradicting him about a potential treatment and the availability of a vaccine?
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:53 am to VOR
Yes.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 9:39 am to Chromdome35
Posted on 3/20/20 at 10:39 am to BobBoucher
My concern is that when we return to somewhat normal, some people will deny that extraordinary measures actually succeeded, and the virus simply ran its course. The conspiracy narrative is strong.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 10:54 am to Aubie Spr96
quote:after perhaps 4 months or so, worldwide. obviously not known with precision because of china's bullcrap. still a reasonable time frame
There have been roughly 250,000 reported cases of corona
quote:it's reported that in the first 6 months of h1n1, there were 20mil cases - in the us alone. if reports are right that 19 has been in the us prior to the jan date and the us is currently at ~15k cases, that's a huge, huge disparity. we certainly could be on that sort of trajectory looking at the last 3 days but it doesn't appear likely, even without social measures.
Let’s say it’s 100x worse than reported to get us to 25,000,000
Posted on 3/20/20 at 10:54 am to Aubie Spr96
(no message)
This post was edited on 3/20/20 at 10:55 am
Posted on 3/20/20 at 10:54 am to VOR
My concern is that the left will claim that some of the extraordinary measures should be kept in place.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 11:02 am to VOR
quote:when? now there's talk of mandatory shelter in place. the measures are getting stronger. there's no reason for you to be certain about that.
when we return to somewhat normal
quote:i have not seen anyone say we should have done nothing so, way to caricature people. the question all along has been the proportionality of the response given prior outbreaks. if there's not a country left then was it worth it to act like we're trying to save a few thousand lives?
some people will deny that extraordinary measures actually succeeded
quote:this is actually the case whether we social distance or not.
the virus simply ran its course
quote:with good reason. there are some scary things going on right now that are unprecedented in this country's history. but keep turning a blind eye to it. your response is like every other lib i've ever talked to - missing the forest for the trees.
The conspiracy narrative is strong
Posted on 3/20/20 at 11:30 am to Chromdome35
NOTE: Updated as of 11:20 AM CST, These are not final numbers for the day, they will go up throughout the day. Until the end of the day, the growth rate numbers will not be correct.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 11:39 am to Chromdome35
quote:
sing either of those numbers because for tests, it would make them look bad and for hostpitals they don't want to create panic
The panic is already there ... it MIGHT would help to calm it. I just always remember being told that numbers don't lie BUT it can tell two stories, depending on what you WANT it to show and how they're manipulated.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 11:40 am to tiger91
whoops
This post was edited on 3/20/20 at 11:41 am
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