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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

Posted on 3/20/20 at 11:58 am to
Posted by Tiguar
Montana
Member since Mar 2012
33131 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 11:58 am to
3/20 major drop from where we were at noon yesterday, exactly one week after people starting taking this virus serious
Posted by the808bass
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
129615 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 12:03 pm to
Crossing my fingers. Still early, but so far much better trend in deaths.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8285 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 12:04 pm to
I don't think you can draw any conclusions about a drop at this point in the day. It could simply be a delay in the rerporting of the numbers. We won't fully know until the end of the day.
Posted by Tiguar
Montana
Member since Mar 2012
33131 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 12:08 pm to
While true, where we were at noon has historically given us a little bit of inference as to how the day was going to go. Hopefully it stays like this
Posted by Sev09
Nantucket
Member since Feb 2011
15854 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 12:16 pm to
Looks like we flattening dat curve.
This post was edited on 3/20/20 at 12:16 pm
Posted by Bunyan
He/Him
Member since Oct 2016
20931 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 12:17 pm to
quote:

BNO Newsroom @BNODesk · 23s BREAKING: Italy reports 5,986 new cases of coronavirus and 627 new deaths, raising total to 47,021 cases and 4,032 dead

WOW
Posted by 14&Counting
Dallas, TX
Member since Jul 2012
42325 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 12:17 pm to
Who's the angry black woman?
Posted by CAD703X
Liberty Island
Member since Jul 2008
94429 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 12:19 pm to
quote:

Who are the angry black women?

fixed
Posted by TigerFanatic99
South Bend, Indiana
Member since Jan 2007
36378 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 12:21 pm to
I don't care who you are or what your agenda is, what is happening in Italy is horrible. That is something more than "well, they are old, smoke, and live in sardine cans".
Posted by AthensTiger
Athens, GA
Member since Jul 2008
2977 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 12:27 pm to
Chromdome35- please keep em coming!
Posted by Bunyan
He/Him
Member since Oct 2016
20931 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 12:32 pm to
eta: looks like a typo
This post was edited on 3/20/20 at 12:38 pm
Posted by TigerCruise
Virginia Beach, VA
Member since Oct 2013
11898 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 12:37 pm to
I'm seeing 6k for Italy..
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35406 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 12:37 pm to
quote:

3/20 major drop from where we were at noon yesterday, exactly one week after people starting taking this virus serious
I think there are some lags in the death reporting, since it went from 205 to 218 sometime between when I checked it a 8:30 PM eastern and when I checked it again around 9:00.

So it increased by 13 in 30 minutes, then only increased by 1 in 15+ hours, most of which was overnight. Most likely there will be 50+ deaths by the end of the day (average rate from the linked data through yesterday), and probably more since the rate has been accelerating.
Posted by Bunyan
He/Him
Member since Oct 2016
20931 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 12:38 pm to
It was 15,000 and it just went back down to 6,000. Somebody on the website screwed up
Posted by Magician2
Member since Oct 2015
14553 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 12:38 pm to
quote:


So it increased by 13 in 30 minutes, then only increased by 1 in 15+ hours, most of which was overnight. Most likely there will be 50+ deaths by the end of the day (average rate from the linked data through yesterday), and probably more since the rate has been accelerating.




Mortality rate is dropping .1% each day as well. By next Tuesday could be under 1%
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8285 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 12:41 pm to
This is the same data I've been posting for the US, but for Italy. This is to show you what's happening there.



Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35406 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 12:44 pm to
quote:

I don't care who you are or what your agenda is, what is happening in Italy is horrible.
And imagine when it starts really hitting India, Africa, South America, etc.

Luckily for most of those areas, their populations are younger overall, but just about every other population risk factor (sanitation, density, healthcare, communication, poverty, infrastructure, etc.) is so much worse than any of the countries who have had widespread outbreaks thus far, save for Iran.
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35406 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 12:49 pm to
quote:

Mortality rate is dropping .1% each day as well. By next Tuesday could be under 1%
Maybe, but between the lag in deaths after cases, the testing supply finally starting to catch up to the demand, the effects of the measure put in place to limit the cases themselves, and the increased likelihood of mortality as the healthcare system becomes stretched thinner, I think we’ll likely see a trend towards stabilization sooner rather than later.

Posted by HailHailtoMichigan!
Mission Viejo, CA
Member since Mar 2012
74629 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 12:51 pm to
bvol, why do you think the Italian lockdown isn’t working too well so far?
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35406 posts
Posted on 3/20/20 at 1:10 pm to
quote:

bvol, why do you think the Italian lockdown isn’t working too well so far?
I don't know. Maybe it will too late, or maybe a lockdown in a multigenerational home was a risk in and of itself.

And it's always possible that it could have been EVEN WORSE if the lockdown didn't happen.

My concern though is that, although I think the US will fare for more favorably in terms of mortality, we made some of the same crucial errors in regards to proactively testing and getting ahead of the spread that I think we'll end up worse of than we could have been.
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