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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 7/21/20 at 12:25 pm to the808bass
Posted on 7/21/20 at 12:25 pm to the808bass
All 50 states are opting against as well as all countries but one as far as I can tell.
Why are you so committed to herd?
Why are you so committed to herd?
1
Posted on 7/21/20 at 12:31 pm to TigerDoc
quote:
3) "In Mississippi, our population is 3 million. We've had 36,680 cases so far. We'd need 1.2 MILLION infections to achieve that hypothetical 40% threshold. (Remember, experts say it's double that.)"
How dumb is this dude?
He thinks they have only had the number of cases they have detected? When we know up to 70% of cases can be asymptomatic and we didn’t have testing for half the pandemic. Yea ok.
More morons making policy not knowing what they are talking about
Posted on 7/21/20 at 12:52 pm to TigerDoc
quote:
Why are you so committed to herd?
I’m not. I think the virus will be effectively over before we hit herd immunity.
But basing calculations on lab tests is as dumb as it gets.
Posted on 7/21/20 at 2:04 pm to the808bass
quote:Hmm. That's pretty bad. Hard to view 7500 lost human years per day burn rate as ho hum.
The numbers I heard early on was around 11 years. Which means the average age is 65+.
Posted on 7/21/20 at 2:23 pm to the808bass
quote:The average age is around 76-77, which corresponds to about 11 years of remaining life expectancy at that age.
The numbers I heard early on was around 11 years. Which means the average age is 65+.
This post was edited on 7/21/20 at 2:24 pm
Posted on 7/21/20 at 3:12 pm to buckeye_vol
Going over 1000 back dated deaths today.
But are cases trending down?
But are cases trending down?
This post was edited on 7/21/20 at 3:22 pm
Posted on 7/21/20 at 4:02 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:That's true even if you factor in the assisted living/nursing home angle? Certainly the average 77 year old already in assisted living doesn't have an 11 year RLE?
The average age is around 76-77, which corresponds to about 11 years of remaining life expectancy at that age.
Posted on 7/21/20 at 4:08 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
That's true even if you factor in the assisted living/nursing home angle? Certainly the average 77 year old already in assisted living doesn't have an 11 year RLE?
I’m a bit leery of the 11 year data point as well. The average time to death for a person in a nursing home is around 14 months from admission. Median is 5 months.
This post was edited on 7/21/20 at 4:08 pm
Posted on 7/21/20 at 4:21 pm to Crimsonians
quote:
Going over 1000 back dated deaths today.
I glanced And noticed a big number for the time of day.
Did some states dump some deaths today?
Posted on 7/21/20 at 4:25 pm to tgrgrd00
Tuesdays are always the biggest reporting days. Best to look at 7-day averages since there's under-reporting on the weekends and catch-up days like this.
Posted on 7/21/20 at 5:14 pm to Chromdome35
This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have created and shared on Google Drive.
If you want to view the shared sheet, follow this link COVID-19 Tracker
If you want to download a copy of this sheet and manipulate it follow this link Downloadable COVID-19 Tracker
The source for the data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
New Cases by State
New Deaths by State
7-day average growth rate of new cases
If you want to view the shared sheet, follow this link COVID-19 Tracker
If you want to download a copy of this sheet and manipulate it follow this link Downloadable COVID-19 Tracker
The source for the data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
New Cases by State
New Deaths by State
7-day average growth rate of new cases
Posted on 7/21/20 at 6:55 pm to Chromdome35
well that's a pretty shitty day.
Hopefully it slows down some on the death angle.
Hopefully it slows down some on the death angle.
Posted on 7/21/20 at 8:16 pm to Chromdome35
This is no bueno.
Posted on 7/21/20 at 8:20 pm to oklahogjr
quote:By which metric are you adjudging it thusly?
well that's a pretty shitty day.
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:15 pm to Big Scrub TX
The death spike is a F'ing joke.
Really......really.....
Really......really.....
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:25 pm to ScottFowler
Thou shalt not question GEOTUS:
LINK
quote:
President Trump abruptly departed on Tuesday from his rosy projections about the coronavirus, warning Americans from the White House briefing lectern that the illness would get worse before widespread recovery.
“It will probably, unfortunately, get worse before it gets better,” Mr. Trump said. “Something I don’t like saying about things, but that’s the way it is.”
LINK
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:26 pm to Chromdome35
Cases appear to be leveling off, the growth rate of new cases is definitely declining. They 7 day average for new cases has plateaued. The daily positivity rate has leveled off and is showing the beginnings of a decline. Testing appears to have hit a stall with the 7-day average number of test results showing a slight decline today. These are all good signs.
Deaths are not as good a picture, even with today's expected bump, we saw 1,029 deaths which is higher than the previous 8 Tuesdays. The 7 day average for deaths is up. I really hoped that the today's death number would be lower than last week's which would have represented a return to the declining pattern we'd seen. Instead; deaths are up and look to be entering a growth period. Let's all pray that I'm wrong.
Deaths are not as good a picture, even with today's expected bump, we saw 1,029 deaths which is higher than the previous 8 Tuesdays. The 7 day average for deaths is up. I really hoped that the today's death number would be lower than last week's which would have represented a return to the declining pattern we'd seen. Instead; deaths are up and look to be entering a growth period. Let's all pray that I'm wrong.
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:36 pm to the808bass
quote:I have pondered a related question since around March 1, 2020--sitting on Old Hammond Hwy, waiting to cross Airline IIRC. Anyway, it's this: If we assume a current life expectancy of 78.5 years in the U.S., and we subtracted the age of those who die after 78.5 and added the age of those who die before 78.5, how close to zero would that number be?
The numbers I heard early on was around 11 years. Which means the average age is 65+.
Example: Male aged 98.5 dies from Covid gets a -20 (having lived 20 years past his life expectancy).
Female aged 68.5 dies from Covid gets a +10 (having lived to within 10 years of her life expectancy).
Added together, a -10 number would indicate that, as a whole, their lives went past current life expectancy in the U.S.
Obviously (I think), the ages would skew older, so there would be more negative numbers, and those would compensate for the relatively few folks who succumb to Covid much earlier in life. Or, put more plainly, I posit that after adding/subtracting each death age from the U.S. life expectancy, the result would trend almost inexorably towards zero.
Despite gravely affecting the older, vulnerable population, the actual numbers, when compared to current life expectancy, the results would reveal the disease is primarily felt by those who have already outlived their life expectancy.
If my supposition is correct, then this entire four month quarantine debacle is premised upon a virus which largely effects only those who have beaten the odds and already exceeded their given life expectancy.
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:43 pm to FCP
That would be a very interesting analysis, anyone know where I could source that data?
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:57 pm to FCP
now this is a good analytical question.
i think youll find this lowers life expectancy but would be curious to see if someone knows how to pull data set or can help with who would have it ill lokk more into it
i think youll find this lowers life expectancy but would be curious to see if someone knows how to pull data set or can help with who would have it ill lokk more into it
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