re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

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now this is a good analytical question.


i think youll find this lowers life expectancy but would be curious to see if someone knows how to pull data set or can help with who would have it ill lokk more into it

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I looked at the CDC provisional death data as of July 11, which has it broken down by age groups.

I ran the numbers using the lower bound of the group as well as the upper bound. For example, for the 15-24 age group, I ran the numbers as if all deaths were age 15 and then again at 24. It's not perfect because it's likely not an even distribution even within these 10-year age bands. Also, the oldest group is 85+, so I used 85 as the lower bound and 90 as the lower bound.

Using that data, adjusted life years lost ranges from 891,356 years lost at the lower bound to -40,390 years lost at the upper bound. Using 78.5 as the US life expectancy, that's equivalent to -514.52 lifetimes at the upper bound and 11,354.85 lifetimes at the lower bound. This shows the huge elderly skew to the data. The mean of those two bounds is 5,420.17 lifetimes. That should not be confused with lives lost because this is equivalent to whole lives not lived.

That’s all well and good but it tends to kee the life expectancy from trending upward as it should be, no?

Been thinking things might be turning for Florida. If this continues, deaths will start dropping in a week or so.

It’s impossible for him.

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without being an a-hole about it?

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I don't want to pile on bv on this point as it is something I struggle with almost hourly.

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I apologize for that. I’ve gotten frustrated with some goofballs on Twitter gaining popularity for their analyses who ignore and/or outright refuse to accept constructive criticism. Yet, you took my harsher criticism more constructively, so you didn’t deserve the harsh criticism.

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Looking like over 1000 deaths reported again today.

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Meaningless, really, (with all due respect to CD and others working to make sense of things), until there are case numbers assigned, unique deaths can be calculated and tied to a specific date, AND some analysis of deaths FROM Wuhan (unambiguously), deaths WITH Wuhan (presumptively Wuhan-related), and deaths ALONGSIDE Wuhan (the bullshite numbers they are throwing in just because).

Frankly, the numbers appear to be more and more gibberish as we near the end of July. I'm open to being proven wrong, but just the frickery in Florida casts questions on the entire thing.

And importing Wuhan cases from Mexico seems like a bad strategy in the RGV, too.

No offense taken :)

I agree with you that the data sucks, but it's all we have at this point.

Not really.

Daily new cases have declined, but it's due to a decline in testing volume as you can see in the first graph below. The positivity rate appears to be mostly flat with a slight decline. The positivity rate did decline slightly for a little while but is ticking back up. (2nd chart)





The growth rate of new cases is down, but the growth rate of deaths is up.



Yesterday's new cases and deaths were the highest Tuesday yet for Florida.

The 2 week federal program for "surge" testing that was going on in Florida, Texas and Louisiana is over now, I believe. I know in Louisiana they were shooting for an extra 5000 tests per day. They were having a hard time getting enough to take it so they were extending it until they were out of tests.