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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 7/20/20 at 5:12 pm to Chromdome35
Posted on 7/20/20 at 5:12 pm to Chromdome35
This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have created and shared on Google Drive.
If you want to view the shared sheet, follow this link COVID-19 Tracker
If you want to download a copy of this sheet and manipulate it follow this link Downloadable COVID-19 Tracker
The source for the data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
New Cases by State
New Deaths by State
7-day average growth rate of new cases
If you want to view the shared sheet, follow this link COVID-19 Tracker
If you want to download a copy of this sheet and manipulate it follow this link Downloadable COVID-19 Tracker
The source for the data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
New Cases by State
New Deaths by State
7-day average growth rate of new cases
0
Posted on 7/21/20 at 8:30 am to Chromdome35
With the number of test still increasing and cases starting to tip over it's looks like we are approaching herd immunity.
A vaccine won't be necessary.
A vaccine won't be necessary.
Posted on 7/21/20 at 8:31 am to Bandit30
quote:
I find it hilarious y’all are still tracking these fake numbers
These "fake numbers" are working themselves out to go against the Karens and fear porn promoters.
Posted on 7/21/20 at 8:47 am to GumboPot
quote:
These "fake numbers" are working themselves out to go against the Karens and fear porn promoters.
They’re running out of deaths to pump the narrative.
Posted on 7/21/20 at 9:17 am to the808bass
This was listed on the Louisiana website
This is a big part of why the tracking is so hard to do accurately.
Thanks again Chrome for keeping us informed.
quote:
The update on 7/20/20 includes a backlog of 1,583 cases, with specimen collection dates 5/18-7/13.
This is a big part of why the tracking is so hard to do accurately.
Thanks again Chrome for keeping us informed.
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:35 am to the808bass
(no message)
This post was edited on 7/21/20 at 2:58 pm
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:38 am to cahoots
quote:
Add it Texas and California and that's like half of the daily reported deaths. 3/4 are red states that re-opened fairly aggressively. I mean, what is their incentive to report this way?
This is all speculation: Their state departments of health may have been opposed to them reopening. And they may be interested in proving their point that they were right about the dangers of reopening.
Also, like most public health organizations, they’re probably really bad at organization and processes.
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:58 am to the808bass
quote:
Also, like most public health organizations, they’re probably really bad at organization and processes.
Government is very slow, and state governments are often slower. Especially with a lot of places still running WFH or lower daily occupancy (half in, half home etc)
Posted on 7/21/20 at 10:59 am to the808bass
quote:My question is when do you think number of deaths starts trending down? If we stay at 750/day, that's still over 100K deaths just by the end of the year. I know that's way less than the hysteria around millions, but I just don't see politically how we re-open in full with that steady burn rate. At the very least, it complicates the election. Thoughts?
They’re running out of deaths to pump the narrative.
Posted on 7/21/20 at 11:06 am to Big Scrub TX
It will definitely impact the election.
I am not ruling out the possibility that there’s just massive fraud in the numbers we’re getting. We won’t know that with any certainty until probably 18 months from now.
I was surprised at how much control the CDC had over the numbers. Our local Missouri Hospital Association was reporting numbers daily and I stupidly assumed they were gathering the numbers themselves. They weren’t. They were getting their own data on hospitalization, vent use and available beds from the CDC.
I am not ruling out the possibility that there’s just massive fraud in the numbers we’re getting. We won’t know that with any certainty until probably 18 months from now.
I was surprised at how much control the CDC had over the numbers. Our local Missouri Hospital Association was reporting numbers daily and I stupidly assumed they were gathering the numbers themselves. They weren’t. They were getting their own data on hospitalization, vent use and available beds from the CDC.
Posted on 7/21/20 at 11:13 am to Big Scrub TX
quote:
My question is when do you think number of deaths starts trending down?
Good question. IMHE, which has been the White House's preferred model has a current prediction for mortality being 186,000 to 244,000 deaths by November (with 208k being their most likely single figure), but that we could save 45,000 lives with universal mask adoption. GEOTUS is finally getting behind mask-wearing (at least for the moment).
This post was edited on 7/21/20 at 11:16 am
Posted on 7/21/20 at 11:26 am to TigerDoc
Everything I've seen about the IMHE model is that it has been terrible this whole time.
I don't why anybody uses it anymore.
I don't why anybody uses it anymore.
This post was edited on 7/21/20 at 11:27 am
Posted on 7/21/20 at 11:39 am to the808bass
quote:But what's the end game here - steady burn until herd immunity and/or vaccine/antiviral?
It will definitely impact the election.
What does the current burn rate look like relative to expected mortality in general? Are we still way above that curve?
Also, although I see it referenced sometimes, I'm nearly totally ignorant on the potential "crowding out" of other mortalities by the virus. Can you say more about that?
Posted on 7/21/20 at 11:39 am to Teddy Ruxpin
The models continue to be be tweaked as they go and by this time they're not that all that far off from each other, at least mortality-wise (and at least they weren't in June when I last looked saw a story comparing 6 of the major ones). They were all in the ballpark for 3-4 weeks, but who knows over 3-4 months.
This post was edited on 7/21/20 at 11:41 am
Posted on 7/21/20 at 11:44 am to Big Scrub TX
I haven’t looked at a lot of the crowding out stuff. I’ll take a peak and see what I find.
It’s interesting that in past natural disasters, the CDC numbers are bare minimum numbers. IOW, only count deaths due to an earthquake that can be clearly contributed to the earthquake. And for coronavirus, we’ve gone to the complete opposite extreme. Assume it’s Corona if it meets very basic criteria.
It’s interesting that in past natural disasters, the CDC numbers are bare minimum numbers. IOW, only count deaths due to an earthquake that can be clearly contributed to the earthquake. And for coronavirus, we’ve gone to the complete opposite extreme. Assume it’s Corona if it meets very basic criteria.
Posted on 7/21/20 at 11:54 am to Big Scrub TX
quote:
But what's the end game here - steady burn until herd immunity and/or vaccine/antiviral?
We have no single end game because we have no single national policy. Nevertheless, none are opting for herd immunity. Here's an example of a governor's reasoning -
MS gov Tate Reeves reasoning (from a series of tweets):
quote:
1) "Let's talk about herd immunity. I've listened to some people argue that the rapid spread of cases is a good thing, and we need to reach herd immunity in Mississippi and elsewhere to survive. I'm not a health care expert by any means, but I am a math guy. And I have thoughts:"
2) "The experts say we need 70-80% of the population to get COVID-19 to achieve herd immunity. Let's assume they're wrong (it's certainly possible, they have been before.) Let's assume they're being way overly cautious and we actually only need 40% infection for herd immunity."
3) "In Mississippi, our population is 3 million. We've had 36,680 cases so far. We'd need 1.2 MILLION infections to achieve that hypothetical 40% threshold. (Remember, experts say it's double that.)"
4) "Over the last two weeks, our hospital system has started to become stressed to the point of pain. We are seeing the early signs and effects of it becoming overwhelmed. We had to suspend elective surgeries again."
5) "On our worst day of new cases, we had just over 1,000. It has typically been between 700-900 during this most aggressive time. To get to 40% infections, we'd need 3,187 new cases every day for a full year from today. We would need to TRIPLE our worst day -- every day -- for a year."
6) "I'm not one of these guys that immediately dismisses any idea that challenges the expert status quo talking points. I'm pretty skeptical by nature. That's healthy. But herd immunity is not anything like a realistic solution in the short or mid-term. I wish it was."
7) "Unless you're willing to go without hospitals after a car wreck or heart attack, we need a different approach. Right now, despite mixed messages at the beginning, it seems like masks are the best bet. They're a hell of a lot better than widespread shut downs. Please wear one!"
Posted on 7/21/20 at 11:56 am to the808bass
quote:It comes off as crass, but I really do want to know the remaining average expected life of the victim pool. i.e. I wonder what % of the pool is old folks that were already teetering, and died in May instead of September. I don't want to be brusque or make light of that, but at some point the cost/benefit has to be run on shutting down an entire economy based on such a thing (and that's before you consider any potential savings to Medicare.)
I haven’t looked at a lot of the crowding out stuff. I’ll take a peak and see what I find.
It’s interesting that in past natural disasters, the CDC numbers are bare minimum numbers. IOW, only count deaths due to an earthquake that can be clearly contributed to the earthquake. And for coronavirus, we’ve gone to the complete opposite extreme. Assume it’s Corona if it meets very basic criteria.
Posted on 7/21/20 at 11:58 am to Big Scrub TX
The numbers I heard early on was around 11 years. Which means the average age is 65+.
Posted on 7/21/20 at 12:01 pm to Big Scrub TX
I'm seeing a pre-print (pre-peer-review) saying the average life-years lost with COVID was about 10.8 compared to about 12.4 for ischemic heart disease (heart attacks).
LINK
LINK
Posted on 7/21/20 at 12:11 pm to TigerDoc
He’s using cases. That’s dumb.
Using deaths and the higher CDC IFR, they’ve already had 208k people infected.
Using the old IFR number, closer to 800k.
Using deaths and the higher CDC IFR, they’ve already had 208k people infected.
Using the old IFR number, closer to 800k.
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