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re: China is dumping US treasuries because they know Trump is watching the 10-year yield

Posted on 4/8/25 at 11:50 am to
Posted by Flats
Member since Jul 2019
28152 posts
Posted on 4/8/25 at 11:50 am to
quote:

That seemed to be the glideslope we were on prior to the inauguration.


Then you must realize that your answer was pointless.
Posted by Taxing Authority
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
63343 posts
Posted on 4/8/25 at 11:50 am to
quote:

What has Trump said regarding the economy?
"We're going to have the best economy that's ever been. It's going to be 'yuge".

IOW: "Hope and change".
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
476775 posts
Posted on 4/8/25 at 11:51 am to
If Dalio's underlying premise is correct, then we're going to experience the post-Roman existence of Western Europe.

quote:

There is immense pressure to correct these imbalances in some form, and this correction will significantly change the monetary order.


Deflation of the USD and devolution of our economy will tank the current global order. The reason why is there is no replacement for the US. Nothing even close to consider as a replacement. You'd have to have some weird conglomeration of direct enemies with competing interests (EU, Russia, China, Japan, SK, India) to even attempt it.

This will not be some post-British empire reset.

Also, China's debt:GDP ain't great.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
476775 posts
Posted on 4/8/25 at 11:52 am to
quote:

Sorry, the poster you responded to seemed to be discussing tariffs. I

Sure, but his goal was so vague he included things like China becoming the world's sole hegemon.

The point, is that he didn't give a substantive answer. I was pointing out the absurdity of the vagueness.
Posted by wackatimesthree
Member since Oct 2019
13486 posts
Posted on 4/8/25 at 11:54 am to
quote:

China has spent years subsidizing their industries in order to flood our country with cheap goods in order to destroy our manufacturing. There entire purpose in doing this was to hurt our industries...China is intentionally destroying our manufacturing base...


Not really.

First of all, China absolutely does want to dominate wherever they can, but their primary purpose in subsidizing their industries has been to grow and develop their own economy. They're competing, sure, but the primary goal is to win, not to make us lose.

Secondly, this persistent narrative that all we get from China is "cheap goods" needs to go away. We get cheap goods, intermediately priced goods, and really expensive goods from China. It's the latter two that really hurt us being dependent upon them for, not the first one. Medicine, heavy construction equipment, factory equipment, steel, semiconductors, electronics, computers, plastics, etc.

The stuff that affects the cost of houses, cars, rent, health care, infrastructure, and the stuff that if we start making it over here again will cause those costs to rise substantially.

quote:

To China, you and all the "free market" fools are useful idiots.


O.k.

To Trump, I guess you're the useful idiot who somehow thinks $17 an hour manufacturing jobs are going to revolutionize America while stuff gets 20%-30% more expensive. Including stuff you can't do without.
Posted by Taxing Authority
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
63343 posts
Posted on 4/8/25 at 11:55 am to
quote:

Ray Dalio, who is no Trump fan, had some insights about the paradigm shift this morning. Here's a snippet:
He's has some others as well, you should probably digest. Dalio, like me, thinks the USD is doomed and we should plan for that. We should. It's inevitable. But tariffs would be one of the last things we should be doing to make that preparation.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
138920 posts
Posted on 4/8/25 at 11:56 am to
quote:

Then you must realize that your answer was pointless.

If WWIII had occurred, it didn't, the paradigm would have been reset ... horribly. It wasn't.

You were saying?


Posted by Dandy Lion
Member since Feb 2010
51403 posts
Posted on 4/8/25 at 11:56 am to
quote:

we are going to be the ones caught in the middle of all it.

Please elaborate.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
138920 posts
Posted on 4/8/25 at 11:57 am to
quote:

"We're going to have the best economy that's ever been. It's going to be 'yuge".
Time will tell.
Posted by wdhalgren
Member since May 2013
5304 posts
Posted on 4/8/25 at 11:57 am to
quote:

The question is, is China becoming the global hegemon a potential goal of "Resetting the economic paradigm."?

And the answer is yes.


It's hard to deny that without defining what type of "reset of the economic paradigm" we're talking about. As it pertains to China, I was trying to figure out how using tariffs to help reduce our trade deficit with China would be of assistance to China in becoming the global hegemon? And what is the metric for determining which country is the global hegemon?
This post was edited on 4/8/25 at 11:59 am
Posted by Taxing Authority
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
63343 posts
Posted on 4/8/25 at 11:58 am to
quote:

Also, China's debt:GDP ain't great.
It's a lot easier to manage when your currency doesn't float.
Posted by reggierayreb
Member since Nov 2012
19700 posts
Posted on 4/8/25 at 11:58 am to
quote:

China has been driving towards this for decades


Exactly. It was always coming.

It's amazing how so many Supply Chain professionals (i.e. people that know what the frick they're talking about) are standing with Trump. It's because we know we'd rather face this fire with a president that actually has a spine and America's best interests at heart rather than a pussy with a wet spaghetti noodle down their back looking for their next big payday like Barry or Joe.

This post was edited on 4/8/25 at 12:00 pm
Posted by Penrod
Member since Jan 2011
55557 posts
Posted on 4/8/25 at 12:00 pm to
quote:

Trump started this

quote:

CollegeFBRules

Trump did NOT start this. The Chinese have been lying. Cheating and stealing for two decades at least. We are finally fighting back.
Posted by Penrod
Member since Jan 2011
55557 posts
Posted on 4/8/25 at 12:01 pm to
quote:

it's almost like you're stupid are something!

Buddy, I’m on your side on this, but if you’re going to call him stupid get your grammar right.
Posted by wdhalgren
Member since May 2013
5304 posts
Posted on 4/8/25 at 12:01 pm to
Dalio is correct. What's worrisome is that plenty of other people know this too, and they've remained silent for the last 15 years.
Posted by Taxing Authority
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
63343 posts
Posted on 4/8/25 at 12:02 pm to
quote:

The stuff that affects the cost of houses, cars, rent, health care, infrastructure, and the stuff that if we start making it over here again will cause those costs to rise substantially.
Teh US is so close to fiscal dominance it won't take much to push us over the edge. Not sure why we're helping them, tho, unless someone wants to flip the currency.
Posted by Penrod
Member since Jan 2011
55557 posts
Posted on 4/8/25 at 12:03 pm to
quote:

The question is, is China becoming the global hegemon a potential goal of "Resetting the economic paradigm."?

And the answer is yes

No. That’s an absurdity.
Posted by Taxing Authority
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
63343 posts
Posted on 4/8/25 at 12:05 pm to
quote:

Dalio is correct. What's worrisome is that plenty of other people know this too, and they've remained silent for the last 15 years.
Many haven't. People just don't want to hear it. It's common to dismiss something just because its so horrible to think about. Also, many have the "It can't happen here" attitude.

And look what has happened to anyone speaking out about it.. Anyone suggesting that maybe, we shouldn't be running up these defictis and debt, gets threated of being primaried by both parties.

Profligate spending is popular. "We" are the problem.
This post was edited on 4/8/25 at 12:07 pm
Posted by Taxing Authority
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
63343 posts
Posted on 4/8/25 at 12:07 pm to
quote:

Also, many have the "It can't happen here" attitude.
Witness:
quote:

No. That’s an absurdity.
Posted by LSU Jax
Gator Country Hell
Member since Sep 2006
10687 posts
Posted on 4/8/25 at 12:10 pm to
quote:

Trump started this, what did he expect China to do? Say sorry? This shite is going to get ugly, and we are going to be the ones caught in the middle of all it.

Put your tampon in and stop bleeding all over the board you pussy.
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