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Started By
Message
re: China is dumping US treasuries because they know Trump is watching the 10-year yield
Posted on 4/8/25 at 9:05 am to stout
Posted on 4/8/25 at 9:05 am to stout
China has been selling off U.S. Treasuries for years. When Biden took office they held around $1.1 trillion. When he left office, it was down to at most $800 billion.
Tariffs explain those moves, imo.
Tariffs explain those moves, imo.
0
Posted on 4/8/25 at 9:05 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
Our path of increasing debt and consumption coupled with decreased manufacturing was/is unsustainable. We have to reset the paradigm.
I agree the paradigm has to change, I disagree this is the right method.
Posted on 4/8/25 at 9:07 am to cajuntiger1010
Maybe but that is a separate issue.
How does the stock market going up help Trump’s stated goal of refinancing the debt which China just made more difficult by the way.
How does the stock market going up help Trump’s stated goal of refinancing the debt which China just made more difficult by the way.
Posted on 4/8/25 at 9:08 am to CollegeFBRules
quote:
Well, if you’re going to make the claim, show me what I’ve been wrong about. I’ll wait for a response that will either never come or will be a response of general disdain of people you don’t like that has nothing to do with me.
no jethrine, i said everything you've made these long term dire predictions based on two trading days in the stock market which you hope will come true because orange man bad mean tweets. the S&P is up 172 points this morning and we're about to complete the first hour of trading did you predict that jethrine? no you predicted an immediate recession! what we had was a sell off, a correction much needed in my opinion as our market was highly inflated. what happens next? i have no idea and neither do you. as i said earlier after the crash in 87 we moved sideways for about 8 months but by 89 we were setting new highs.
here's the thing milt the days of free trade, illegal immigration and endless war are over in the republican party, if you can't deal with that go be a democrat, that's what bill kristol and jonah goldberg have done. there waiting for you pard.
never trump republican and democrat are now distinction without a difference.
Posted on 4/8/25 at 9:09 am to roadGator
quote:
Explain how the stock market going up helps achieve Trumps goal here.
If the goal it to lower interest rates that is really up to the FR. They lower or raise interest rates based on employment and CPI.
Even when we lived through ZIRP employment was pretty good so the main factor is inflation. Inflation is caused by too much money in the system chasing too few goods. With that premise in mind, if the FR is unloading notes off their balance sheet to get the 10-note back in line with the Fed's Fund rate of 4.33%, this is net positive because it removes cash form the economy. When they get paid for those assets the FR burns that cash (just the opposite from when they printed it) which is deflationary.
So to reach lower interest rate goal the FR need to keep burning cash, regulatory policy needs to focus on getting energy prices lower and congress needs to start making some difficult decisions by cutting.
Posted on 4/8/25 at 9:10 am to cajuntiger1010
quote:
Smart investors know America will win this trade war?
Israel and Japan both signaling they're going to demonstrate an acceptable framework to end the tariffs is encouraging. It will likely make the more right leaning governments in the EU have traction with their calls to not start a trade war but instead come to the table.
The South Asian countries will get the deals next because it will isolate China. Hell, Vietnam's growth over the last decade is due to Trump I tariffs.
Posted on 4/8/25 at 9:11 am to KiwiHead
quote:
So Xi is essentially lobbying a hand grenade across the table at the US. He doesn't mind getting hurt a little if the grenade explodes on Trump's side of the table.
100%, and I told everybody for months that China would react in some way like that.
Xi is a dictator. His people can't vote him out, they'd have to mount a coup to get rid of him.
It's not like here where the POTUS turns over every four years.
Xi can stand a lot more pain than we can. How much he will choose to stand remains to be seen, but China is built to stand a lot more than us.
Which is why I'm starting to think that Trump has some ulterior motive for all of this. The way he's going about it all is not designed to get what the stated goals have been. The way he's going about looks like it's intentionally designed to enrage the biggest trade partners, with China at the top of that list. Again, Chinese officials have been asking to meet with him for months and he's refused.
I think he's trying to bait them into something, anger them into some kind of self-destructive action. I just don't know what.
This post was edited on 4/8/25 at 9:12 am
Posted on 4/8/25 at 9:12 am to GumboPot
Wait. What goal are you talking about?
I was talking about refinancing the debt, not lowering mortgage interest rates.
Maybe we need a thread that lists alll know trade war goals so we can all know what they are.
Is that even possible or is the goal post shifting at a furious rate.
I was talking about refinancing the debt, not lowering mortgage interest rates.
Maybe we need a thread that lists alll know trade war goals so we can all know what they are.
Is that even possible or is the goal post shifting at a furious rate.
Posted on 4/8/25 at 9:13 am to wackatimesthree
Well, he’s a 3D chess grand master and there’s no way China can see what’s coming.
Posted on 4/8/25 at 9:19 am to roadGator
quote:
Well, he’s a 3D chess grand master and there’s no way China can see what’s coming.
Yeah, I'm not saying that. I'm the furthest thing here from a sycophant who says anything Trump does is 8D genius chess.
The first half of my post is designed to basically communicate that I'm not sure it's wise to do what I think he's doing.
But since I don't know exactly what it is, I can't say that for sure.
The one thing I know for sure is that the motivation doesn't conform to the stated goals. They all contradict each other.
And it would be absolute folly for him to have gone about this the way he has unless there really was some underlying strategy that called for it to go down this way.
So I guess I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt. He's either being really smart here or really stupid. The one thing I am convinced of is that he's not in the middle of that continuum...he's not just innocently trying to "bring back American manufacturing jobs" or some such thing as that.
Posted on 4/8/25 at 9:21 am to roadGator
quote:
Is that even possible or is the goal post shifting at a furious rate.
Sure, it'll be possible after the fact.
Someone made a sarcastic topic about "tariff experts". Not only am I not a tariff expert, I think at a certain point macro economics is voodoo and nobody can predict it accurately. There are just too many variables to treat it like a science.
But I only need to understand logic to recognize some of the crazy that's been a staple this week. Some version of this has been repeated so many times I've lost track.
We want "A". "A" will lead to "B" and "B" is good.
Some people may not like "A". What happens if we get "not A"?
You still get "B" because reasons.
What happens if we get "A" with some countries and "not A" with others?
That also leads to "B" because reasons.
Posted on 4/8/25 at 9:21 am to dickkellog
quote:
no jethrine, i said everything you've made these long term dire predictions based on two trading days in the stock market which you hope will come true because orange man bad mean tweets. the S&P is up 172 points this morning and we're about to complete the first hour of trading did you predict that jethrine? no you predicted an immediate recession! what we had was a sell off, a correction much needed in my opinion as our market was highly inflated. what happens next? i have no idea and neither do you. as i said earlier after the crash in 87 we moved sideways for about 8 months but by 89 we were setting new highs.
here's the thing milt the days of free trade, illegal immigration and endless war are over in the republican party, if you can't deal with that go be a democrat, that's what bill kristol and jonah goldberg have done. there waiting for you pard.
never trump republican and democrat are now distinction without a difference.
That’s a lot of words to prove my point.
Posted on 4/8/25 at 9:23 am to Flats
Looks like a sane argument to me based on the appropriate level of sarcasm you’d expect from me.
Posted on 4/8/25 at 9:30 am to dickkellog
quote:
so far you've been wrong about everything it's almost like you're stupid are something!
Any grown adult who mistakes are and or shouldn't be calling anyone stupid.
I'm sitting here hoping that you're not sounding out your words in your head as a grown man.
Posted on 4/8/25 at 9:43 am to UPT
quote:
Trump started this, what did he expect China to do? Say sorry? This shite is going to get ugly, and we are going to be the ones caught in the middle of all it.
I look at it this way. For years our country has been sold out to foreign governments.
Owning our debt gives foreign governments to much control over our economy and country.
Breaking that bond was never going to be easy but its necessary because we were on the edge of the cliff.
Pain for me saves my children even more pain when they are adults.
I am willing to go through it. It's called being a man.
Posted on 4/8/25 at 9:45 am to CollegeFBRules
quote:
I agree the paradigm has to change, I disagree this is the right method.
Posted on 4/8/25 at 9:47 am to NC_Tigah
I don’t think Napoleon is the right example to use.
Posted on 4/8/25 at 9:57 am to CollegeFBRules
quote:Should Trump layout specifically what his negotiating positions, tolerances, and goals are?
I don’t think Napoleon is the right example to use.
Jamieson Greer is testifying effectively to the Senate about this as we speak.
Posted on 4/8/25 at 9:58 am to CollegeFBRules
quote:
Trump started this, what did he expect China to do?
This is false. China has spent years subsidizing their industries in order to flood our country with cheap goods in order to destroy our manufacturing. There entire purpose in doing this was to hurt our industries.
China is intentionally destroying our manufacturing base and your solution is to tell them, "Hey, don't forget to screw those industries over there, too."
To China, you and all the "free market" fools are useful idiots. You are literally helping our enemy achieve their goal because you are blinded by textbook principles. That is just retarded.
Posted on 4/8/25 at 10:02 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
Should Trump layout specifically what his negotiating positions, tolerances, and goals are?
What world am I living in where someone of your intelligence supports the complete reshaping of the American and global economy under this kind of obscurity?
Yes, Trump should have been clear on exactly what he was going for with this. And if you think he should keep those thoughts secret, we have a truly foundational difference in opinion.
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