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re: 1Q GDP projection holding steady at a vigorous 2.0%
Posted on 3/16/18 at 11:22 am to buckeye_vol
Posted on 3/16/18 at 11:22 am to buckeye_vol
no, agree that it's not out of line with recent trend.
of course, i had been thinking that the tax cuts would cause a temporary (stronger) break from the recent trend, and that it should be showing up quickly. definitely within the quarter. and that being on top of the fact that we appear to be nearing the top of the business cycle anyway.
starting to look like my expectations for the year are significantly high, but it is possible that BEA is STILL dealing with seasonality-adjusting issues for 1Q
of course, i had been thinking that the tax cuts would cause a temporary (stronger) break from the recent trend, and that it should be showing up quickly. definitely within the quarter. and that being on top of the fact that we appear to be nearing the top of the business cycle anyway.
starting to look like my expectations for the year are significantly high, but it is possible that BEA is STILL dealing with seasonality-adjusting issues for 1Q
This post was edited on 3/16/18 at 11:23 am
0
Posted on 3/16/18 at 11:31 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:Then you'll be updating often. Just so you'll know, the Atl Fed models need work. They are historically awful ( LINK). They are all over the place. I believe their projections immediately prior to this one were for >5% growth. Has any other group been as high, or as low this year? Much less back-to-back?
Will update numbers here as ATL Fed revises projections.
Posted on 3/16/18 at 12:39 pm to Flame Salamander
doubt we can see "end uses" already. but i did see this a few weeks back:
LINK
quote:
13% of companies' tax cut savings will go to pay raises, bonuses and employee benefits, according to a survey of Morgan Stanley analysts released Thursday. 43% will go to investors in the form of stock buybacks and dividends, the analysts predict.
LINK
Posted on 3/16/18 at 1:20 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:and yet all the usual dullards here got their trumpy bears and maga hats and jacked off to it when it was at 5
Just so you'll know, the Atl Fed models need work. They are historically awful
Atlanta Fed upgrades U.S. first-quarter GDP growth view to above 5 percent
GDP growth for 1Q expected to hit 5.4%
Posted on 3/16/18 at 1:27 pm to MastrShake
quote:
and yet all the usual dullards here got their trumpy bears and maga hats and jacked off to it when it was at 5
No shite they did. If GDP actually started to hit in the 5's y'all are so fricked.
Sub 2 would be a hell of a disappointment.
Posted on 3/23/18 at 12:44 pm to DallasTiger11
private inventories & residential investment slightly lower than projected, projection drops ever so slightly to just below 1.8% real for the quarter
maybe that big omnibus will stimulate some more deficit-financed activity though
maybe that big omnibus will stimulate some more deficit-financed activity though
Posted on 3/23/18 at 1:31 pm to 90proofprofessional
quote:
He also notes that the relationship between labor market strength and inflation seems to have weakened over time
Uncle Milty called. He said, "Duh."
Posted on 3/29/18 at 9:32 am to 90proofprofessional
3/29 update climbs to 2.4% on higher inventory investment in wholesale & retail
wsj's panel of forecasters has called 2.5% for most of the quarter
ny fed's nowcast at 2.9
wsj's panel of forecasters has called 2.5% for most of the quarter
ny fed's nowcast at 2.9
This post was edited on 3/29/18 at 9:35 am
Posted on 3/29/18 at 9:35 am to 90proofprofessional
Appreciate the updates and your input.
Posted on 3/29/18 at 9:41 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:
1Q GDP projection soars to a revised 2.4%,
Posted on 3/29/18 at 9:43 am to GumboPot
you like that?
Posted on 3/29/18 at 9:43 am to 90proofprofessional
If they're saying its 2.4% its probably really 4.2%.
Posted on 3/29/18 at 9:49 am to Seldom Seen
quote:Well since they were saying 1.8% which was really 8.1% then that’s a dramatic decrease. Right?
If they're saying its 2.4% its probably really 4.2%.
Posted on 3/29/18 at 9:50 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:
you like that?
With talk like that you will be offered a coat shortly.
This post was edited on 3/29/18 at 10:00 am
Posted on 3/29/18 at 9:58 am to Seldom Seen
quote:
If they're saying its 2.4% its probably really 4.2%.
You know you are not far off.
For example the initial 4Q17 “current-dollar” GDP was reported as 5.3%. That number got adjusted downward to 2.9% due to inflation based on 2009 dollars.
That would be like you earning $100,000 last year and $105,300 this year. That is a 5.3% increase to you, however adjusted for inflation your “real” earnings are $102,900.
Too bad the federal government doesn’t allow you to pay taxes on “real” earnings.
This post was edited on 3/29/18 at 10:02 am
Posted on 3/29/18 at 12:37 pm to 90proofprofessional
quote:The ATL Fed models are a mess.
1Q GDP projection soars to a revised 2.4%, per ATL Fed
Posted on 3/29/18 at 12:40 pm to NC_Tigah
they started the quarter off implausibly high, steadily went downward over the quarter (and probably a good bit too far down), now they're pretty close to the rest at this point
stl fed's nowcast is at something like 3.75 fwiw, that's the highest i've seen
i saw that oxford economics has high 1's, and iirc moody's is low 2's as of this week's releases
stl fed's nowcast is at something like 3.75 fwiw, that's the highest i've seen
i saw that oxford economics has high 1's, and iirc moody's is low 2's as of this week's releases
Posted on 4/2/18 at 10:37 am to NC_Tigah
another bump up after ISM report on manufacturing: 2.8
Posted on 4/2/18 at 10:49 am to 90proofprofessional
Is it true that the Atlanta Fed made up of a bunch of ex-Weather Channel employees?
Corrected by popular request
Corrected by popular request
This post was edited on 4/2/18 at 11:38 am
Posted on 4/2/18 at 11:15 am to doubleb
quote:There is no Atlantic Fed.
Is it true that the Atlantic Fed
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