re: 1Q GDP projection holding steady at a vigorous 2.0%

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2.3 to 2.0 isn’t going down?

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it'd be a slowdown in growth, but 2.0 is still positive growth

note that the figure used in this thread is a running forecast of Q1 GDP based on public data releases over the quarter. it's a quality product, but it's still just a forecast, and the series has been pretty volatile

running figure gets bumped back up to 2.0 after a more upbeat industrial production report today!

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a glass of Zima

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IWDI, but i'd much rather a pint of the image in my avi

that image is the label for Creature of Habit

it was a long time before i realized i liked coffee ales & stouts, but

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love IPAs

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don't think that day will ever come for me

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IPAs

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Fad beer.

Americans get a taste of hops, think it's good. If it's good, too much must be great. Now there's too much. It's gotten to where I can barely find a beer that's not all hopped up.

Eventually Americans will wise up and realize that the hops in IPAs were for preservation and not for taste, the taste was merely tolerated. Then they'll realize how nasty a hopped up beer full of grapefruit juice is. I can't wait.

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It's ranged from 1.8% to 5.4% in two months

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out of curiosity, which end of the range do you think is closer to what we'll wind up at? lots of fans-turned-critics of this model ITT, not too many people laying numbers on the table.

also, i wanted to note that since 2014, quarterly GDP itself has ranged from -0.9% to 5.2%. the model is forecasting something that itself is a volatile series, and the model is based on individual pieces with varying volatility that are updated on varying schedules. i don't think it's so bad at all, and the way in which they present it is a real advantage for the purpose of both general discussion and of tracking individual pieces of economic data as they are released periodically.

i'm certainly happy to add discussion of other models though, and I often throw in the projections that other forecasters are using in these updates (i've mentioned NY Fed, STL Fed, WSJ's survey, Moody's, & Oxford Economics off the top of my head). they don't get much play either though

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Neither.
The ATL fed Model is simply broken.

If I you want my guess, we'll end up between 2.4 and 3.2.

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that's much closer to the low end then.

i started off at the time of the OP at 3.0-3.2, but that seems pretty optimistic at this point.

disagree that the model is "broken". it's a running projection. perhaps they post their updates too frequently and should do it less often, and smooth their swings somewhat, but transparency in objective models looks like that sometimes.

and again, let's remember that few people seemed to think that those numbers on the high end- the numbers that YOU disagree with the most from this broken model- were out to lunch at the time they were put out. you act like the brokenness of this model is self-evident because of a range that is smaller than the actual range of the last <20 historical results? that's going too far.

yeah you talk about it all the time

I was in that thread

but don't blame me for it not getting talked about all the time. when the numbers are strong, there's no shortage of mentions of it here. maybe it's not rehashed every day because 2 quarters of barely above 3% isn't really all that much to crow about?

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universally understood

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hell of a claim. link?