re: 1Q GDP projection holding steady at a vigorous 2.0%

Why?

Early Austrians played an important role in time preference/interest theory

Also the importance of economic calculation

Mises

Economic calculation in socialist commonwealth

No big deal on the tastes. The more important thing is the great branding. Love the owl as its meaningful to me.

quote:

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Yo disagree the ATL Fed Model which is universally understood to be broken, is broken?

Okay.

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When did this become a universal understanding? It sure wasn't the case when this board has numerous posts when the model early in the quarter had the growth at 5.4%.

I've posted it before, but the ATL Fed's own study of the model unsurprisingly found it to be less accurate early in a quarter compared to the expert consensus but ir becomes more accurate than the consensus near the end when it has much more data to model.

In this case they're converging on a similar figure so while both can be wrong the 2% or so prediction seems most reasonable and would be in line with the recent YOY quarterly trends.

Of course while the mid 2% growth seems reasonable, the 3% expectation would mean that if grew 2% in Q1 then the final 2 quarters would have to grow by 3.53% in order to have 3% growth for the year.

moody's 1Q projection prior to the official estimate is 1.7%

NY Fed's nowcast is 2.9%
Oxford Economics is 1.6%
STL Fed's is at 3.5%!
WSJ survey at 2.1%