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1Q GDP projection holding steady at a vigorous 2.0%

Posted on 2/6/18 at 8:22 am
Posted by 90proofprofessional
Member since Mar 2004
24445 posts
Posted on 2/6/18 at 8:22 am
Tracking:

1/29 4.2%
2/01 5.4%
2/06 4.0%
2/10 4.0%
2/14 3.2% (much more in line with my expectations- see below)
2/16 3.2%
2/27 2.6%
3/01 3.5%
3/07 2.8%
3/09 2.5%
3/14 1.9%
3/16 1.8%
3/23 1.8%
3/29 2.4%
4/02 2.8%
4/05 2.3%
4/10 2.0%
4/16 1.9%
4/17 2.0%
4/26 2.0%




-----------------------------------
Below is from OP on Jan 29:
-----------------------------------

My early prognostication remains a good first 2 quarters (both low 3's), and a good year (2.9 or 3.0).

Stock market discussion not really desired ITT, unless it accompanies a sound argument on how it will directly predict GDP growth swings or something directly relevant like that.
This post was edited on 4/26/18 at 9:01 am
Posted by Lou Pai
Member since Dec 2014
28103 posts
Posted on 2/6/18 at 8:37 am to
Will be curious to see what happens if we see some real dollar strengthening unfold this year. This is going to have an effect not only on exports obviously but to a lesser extent the tailwinds we've seen in energy.
Posted by 90proofprofessional
Member since Mar 2004
24445 posts
Posted on 2/6/18 at 8:40 am to
There'll be an update based on trade data later this morning FWIW

quote:

Will be curious to see what happens if we see some real dollar strengthening unfold this year.

About to go thru Bullard's comments on his macroeconomic outlook for the year. Up front in his bullet points is a somewhat-related argument:

quote:

Inflation remains low. Continued strong labor market
performance is unlikely to translate into meaningfully
higher inflation because Phillips curve effects are weak.


ETA link if anyone cares

ETA again- the STL Fed President isn't as optimistic as me.

He also notes that the relationship between labor market strength and inflation seems to have weakened over time, and argues that we will keep seeing lower inflation than we'd expect. That makes the Fed's job trickier:


This post was edited on 2/6/18 at 8:51 am
Posted by Lou Pai
Member since Dec 2014
28103 posts
Posted on 2/6/18 at 8:50 am to
Interesting aspect of the recent wage inflation stuff is nonsupervisory wages were actually flat vs last print. Don't pretend to know exactly how they calculate Phillips curve, but I suspect we are going to need to see the wage gains percolate into the broader workforce in order to see inflation pullthrough.
Posted by 90proofprofessional
Member since Mar 2004
24445 posts
Posted on 2/6/18 at 8:52 am to
quote:

Interesting aspect of the recent wage inflation stuff is nonsupervisory wages were actually flat

agree this is interesting and very much worth watching
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
118683 posts
Posted on 2/6/18 at 8:57 am to
Here is the New York Fed's Nowcast prediction for 1Q18.



LINK

I have not looked into the different methodologies between the New York and Atlanta Fed branches.

FWIW here are some key dates:

GDP, 4th quarter and annual 2017 (second estimate) February 28 8:30 am

GDP, 4th quarter and annual 2017 (third estimate) March 28 8:30 am

GDP, 1st quarter 2018 (advance estimate) April 27 8:30 am

GDP, 1st quarter 2018 (second estimate) May 30 8:30 am

GDP, 1st quarter 2018 (third estimate) June 28 8:30 am

LINK

We won't know the final first quarter 2018 GDP number until June 28th...

Posted by 90proofprofessional
Member since Mar 2004
24445 posts
Posted on 2/6/18 at 9:55 am to
bump for Feb 6 update to 4.0% after trade data report
Posted by Lou Pai
Member since Dec 2014
28103 posts
Posted on 2/8/18 at 5:57 pm to
Jobless claims continue to be stupid low

CPI next release on Ash Wednesday

Computers can frick right off imo
Posted by 90proofprofessional
Member since Mar 2004
24445 posts
Posted on 2/8/18 at 6:20 pm to
another update based on wholesaler data coming tomorrow morning
Posted by 90proofprofessional
Member since Mar 2004
24445 posts
Posted on 2/9/18 at 10:22 am to
2/10 update: no surprises from wholesale data in either direction. atl fed projection for q1 stays put at 4.0

ny fed nowcast up to 3.4
wsj up to 2.9
This post was edited on 2/9/18 at 10:23 am
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126962 posts
Posted on 2/9/18 at 10:25 am to
quote:

ny fed nowcast up to 3.4
wsj up to 2.9
Is that for entire year of 2018? Or Q1, 2018?
Posted by 90proofprofessional
Member since Mar 2004
24445 posts
Posted on 2/9/18 at 10:25 am to
q1 annualized in both cases
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126962 posts
Posted on 2/9/18 at 10:26 am to
Thanks.
Posted by 90proofprofessional
Member since Mar 2004
24445 posts
Posted on 2/14/18 at 8:47 am to
Bumping in anticipation of update later in the morning. Update will be based on inflation and retail sales data.

Looks like January retail data was weak, and the prior couple months retail numbers are being revised down. Meanwhile CPI appears higher than expected and the markets don't seem to care for that.

I think the retail data could be legit bad news, but the inflation numbers aren't as big a deal as people will think. It just looks like we're finally getting really close to having high-enough inflation to hit target.

Curious to see how the model will react when the projection update is released.
Posted by Lou Pai
Member since Dec 2014
28103 posts
Posted on 2/14/18 at 9:12 am to
Consumer spending has been worrisome in light of the savings rate data
Posted by DarthRebel
Tier Five is Alive
Member since Feb 2013
21233 posts
Posted on 2/14/18 at 9:29 am to
I wish you would just stop these. We can just wait for the final numbers.

Posted by Lou Pai
Member since Dec 2014
28103 posts
Posted on 2/14/18 at 9:32 am to
Good talk
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126962 posts
Posted on 2/14/18 at 9:35 am to
quote:

in light of the savings rate data
Savings rates usually trend downward when the stock market surges due to consumers feeling wealthier from their net worth increase. We'll see an uptick in retail sales shortly thereafter.
Posted by 90proofprofessional
Member since Mar 2004
24445 posts
Posted on 2/14/18 at 9:44 am to
quote:

I wish you would just stop these. We can just wait for the final numbers.


feel free to show yourself teh door bruh
Posted by 90proofprofessional
Member since Mar 2004
24445 posts
Posted on 2/14/18 at 10:22 am to
another big drop this morning

still pretty good though, and pretty close to my expectations
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