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2
Posted on 3/7/18 at 10:33 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:
ATL Fed 1Q GDP projections. 3/7: falls again sharply to 2.8%
I seem to recall the ATL fed being consistently optimistic and then consistently revising numbers downward.
Posted on 3/7/18 at 10:39 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:
i assume you're familiar with karl smith?
Can't say that I am. Did Karl Marx and Adam Smith have a kid?
Posted on 3/7/18 at 10:40 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:
i was thinking about it more along the lines of: since the indicators aren't negatively tied together as they appeared to be for a long time now, which one do we lean on more as an indicator of where we are in the business cycle.
i mean we've been in the 4's for unemployment for a while now, but have still remained on the short side of the inflation target
That makes sense.
Posted on 3/7/18 at 11:04 am to Jyrdis
quote:
Can't say that I am.
one of my favorite economist personalities, don't always agree with him but he is strong AF on twitter and his blog
he directs the Niskanen Center, and he was the original Modeled Behavior writer
anyway he's consistently touted a fairly convincing thesis on keeping rates low despite low unemployment UNTIL inflation does what we'd expect (and then keeping them low for a while tolerating above-target inflation just as we've tolerated below-target inflation), because that won't happen until a great deal of the discouraged workforce gets back into that participating pool
can't say i fully buy it as it's still up in the air, but i think that storyline has a lot of potential to be proven right and explain that phillips curve problem eventually
This post was edited on 3/7/18 at 11:07 am
Posted on 3/7/18 at 12:27 pm to 90proofprofessional
quote:not close until the leeches get burnt off the tit
We are essentially at full employment.
Posted on 3/9/18 at 11:08 am to DTRooster
not a great update today
despite the fantastic jobs numbers, consumer spending & real private fixed investment data still dragged the forecast down
ny fed down to 2.8 as well
i'm still optimistic for a 3+ quarter. need wage growth to pick up some more
despite the fantastic jobs numbers, consumer spending & real private fixed investment data still dragged the forecast down
ny fed down to 2.8 as well
i'm still optimistic for a 3+ quarter. need wage growth to pick up some more
This post was edited on 3/9/18 at 11:10 am
Posted on 3/9/18 at 11:11 am to Jyrdis
quote:
We are essentially at full employment.
combination of jobs report & unemployment rate, despite slowdown in wage growth, suggest we may have a bit to go yet
Posted on 3/9/18 at 11:19 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:
need wage growth to pick up some more
that has been pretty much the refrain for the last, what 8 years?
In my sector and region, we are seeing really good wage growth but that probably varies quite a bit. two of my clients are having a really hard time hiring people right now.
Posted on 3/9/18 at 11:35 am to brian_wilson
quote:
In my sector and region, we are seeing really good wage growth
last data point nationally was 2.6% compared to this month a year ago
what counts as "really good" where you're at?
Posted on 3/9/18 at 11:43 am to 90proofprofessional
At one of my clients, every product person got 5%+ raise in Jan. And they are having a hard time retaining talent, thus the raise. I don't know outside of the product teams. On top of this they missed their number in Sept and Dec. 
Pretty much every call I get from a recruiter I get is Salary is X but for the right candidate they might do more.
eta: I see any raise of over 3% as good. So we are getting to that space.
eta2: my wife got a 20% raise in Feb, retroactive too.
Pretty much every call I get from a recruiter I get is Salary is X but for the right candidate they might do more.
eta: I see any raise of over 3% as good. So we are getting to that space.
eta2: my wife got a 20% raise in Feb, retroactive too.
This post was edited on 3/9/18 at 11:45 am
Posted on 3/9/18 at 11:51 am to brian_wilson
quote:
At one of my clients, every product person got 5%+ raise in Jan. And they are having a hard time retaining talent, thus the raise.
well that's a great sign
one of the things i've heard consistently the last several years that has irked me is people complaining about a shortage of qualification in the workforce, but wage increases were totally absent from the data and even from the anecdotes you'd hear. that's some bullshite.
now at least we're hearing about raises more and more and january was a good month for wage growth. hopefully all these bonuses weren't the beginning and end of it
Posted on 3/9/18 at 12:26 pm to 90proofprofessional
quote:
well that's a great sign
It is a great sign, at least for me. I do consulting, and if they can't find people then well I can probably get some contracts out of them.
And a 5% raise is huge, but these are already high priced resources. Those making 20-50k are the ones that need the 5% raises, not ones making over 100k.
Posted on 3/14/18 at 10:13 am to brian_wilson
better temper expectations for this quarter
This post was edited on 3/14/18 at 10:17 am
Posted on 3/14/18 at 11:30 am to 90proofprofessional
Condolence bump because these threads are way better than THE DOW IS DOING A THING
Posted on 3/14/18 at 11:42 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:
Consumer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau,
This is the point about inflation and its negative impact on real gdp that I was trying to make in the other GDP thread where you were berating me.
CPI goes up (along with the retail sales report) and GDP forecast goes down.
This post was edited on 3/14/18 at 11:48 am
Posted on 3/14/18 at 11:51 am to GumboPot
Well I suppose that mistake is forgivable. It is an element for this forecast model, which otherwise uses nominal figures. It also has to adjust those nominal figures in real time, and adjust the adjustment over the quarter.
That within-the-quarter adjustment still has no bearing on real activity though. Or the BEA figure that measures it, which is not based on this forecast in any way.
That within-the-quarter adjustment still has no bearing on real activity though. Or the BEA figure that measures it, which is not based on this forecast in any way.
This post was edited on 3/14/18 at 11:53 am
Posted on 3/14/18 at 11:54 am to Iosh
wow tanx oish, u tru fren
Posted on 3/16/18 at 10:44 am to 90proofprofessional
Definitely expected news that was more positive overall this morning. Didn't get it.
NY Fed down to 2.7
WSJ Survey down to 2.5
Also, came across a few others that aren't widely cited but look decent:
Oxford Economics also calling 1.8
STL Fed calling 3.7
quote:
first-quarter real private fixed-investment growth increased from 2.4 percent to 3.3 percent after this morning’s new residential construction release from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning's industrial production and capacity utilization release from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
quote:
This increase was more than offset by the modest downward revisions to the nowcasts of the contributions of real consumer spending, real net exports, and real inventory investment to first-quarter real GDP growth.
NY Fed down to 2.7
WSJ Survey down to 2.5
Also, came across a few others that aren't widely cited but look decent:
Oxford Economics also calling 1.8
STL Fed calling 3.7
Posted on 3/16/18 at 11:10 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:Obviously this isn't very scientific, but the YOY growth by quarter for 2017 was 0.16% with an R-squared of 0.982.
Definitely expected news that was more positive overall this morning. Didn't get it.
So if that were to hold true, then Q1 2018 thanks be 2.65% higher than 2017; which would mean the annualized growth from Q4 would be 1.85%.
So this isn't really all that out of line with the recent trend.
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