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Started By
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re: U.S. Economy Grew a Robust 2.8% in Second Quarter
Posted on 7/25/24 at 10:51 am to reggierayreb
Posted on 7/25/24 at 10:51 am to reggierayreb
quote:
I work in Supply Chain. The increase in US import volumes and all this 'demand' is not due to the economy thriving at all. It is all due to uncertainty. There is a Federal Election in November and since Trump is currently the Odds on favorite to win that means there will be significant tariffs incoming. Some commodities that we import currently have ZERO duties or tariffs due on them at all.
What's the economic impact of spending all this money up front, to not spend on tariffs down the road? Are the tariffs that prohibitive, or is it a zero sum game meant to maximize tax losses in the current year?
1
Posted on 7/25/24 at 11:01 am to ragincajun03
Maybe Biden isn’t so bad after all?
Posted on 7/25/24 at 11:03 am to JasonDBlaha
Agreed, y'all should have let him run.
Posted on 7/25/24 at 11:17 am to TigerinATL
quote:
I think what is powering the economy is the same thing that's been powering it since the stimulus ended, credit cards. Every quarter we see new reports of the highest balances ever and increasing delinquency rates.
The last thing I saw was using Q1 2024 data, but if you adjust for inflation, we are still below records on consumer credit card debt, though getting close. Delinquency is rising. You are correct about that.
Posted on 7/25/24 at 11:31 am to bad93ex
quote:
How long before the numbers are revised downwards and reported minimally?
Q3 2023 - Advanced estimate was 4.9. Second estimate was 5.2. Third and final estimate at 4.9.
Q4 2023 - Advanced estimate was 3.4. Revised down to 3.2 in second estimate. Revised back up in 3rd and final estimate to 3.4.
Q1 2024 - Advanced estimate was 1.6. Second estimate was 1.3. Third and final estimate was 1.4.
Q2 2024 - Advanced estimate is 2.8. TBD where the second and third estimates come in at, but as you can see, they're usually fairly close.
This post was edited on 7/25/24 at 11:32 am
Posted on 7/25/24 at 11:35 am to wheelr
Your FRED graph is a great illustration of inflating debt away. Except that we kept adding debt, so the inflation didn't get rid of as much as it should have.
Posted on 7/25/24 at 11:39 am to KennytheTiger
quote:
Probably correct. Now do Trump.
Trump at least knows what month it is.
Posted on 7/25/24 at 12:00 pm to East Coast Band
quote:
Because the othe indicators aren't correlating with this number
Serious question, do you remember which ones they mentioned?
2.8% doesn’t seem crazy to me considering the increase in debt-fueld consumer spending. Not saying it’s a good thing, just saying it might be about right.
Posted on 7/25/24 at 12:12 pm to ragincajun03
Stop reading these propaganda rags.
Posted on 7/25/24 at 12:13 pm to ragincajun03
What’s odd though is that so much of the building material is being imported from other countries.
So the price to build a house is stupidly expensive
So the price to build a house is stupidly expensive
Posted on 7/25/24 at 12:21 pm to reggierayreb
quote:
Some commodities that we import currently have ZERO duties or tariffs due on them at all.
This is a doubled-edged sword. We love the "low" prices of these items but in the same sense we hate that we have lost jobs here in America in order to afford those low prices. Less jobs in the States means less tax revenue for the country, thus increasing taxes on those who pay them.
I say it's time to bring the jobs back home.
Posted on 7/25/24 at 12:27 pm to ragincajun03
Take out the massive deficit spending and compute it again.
Posted on 7/25/24 at 12:55 pm to ragincajun03
quote:
U.S. Economy Grew a Robust 2.8% in Second Quarter
not reading this thread because I cannot trust anything that the feds report.
this probably means that the economy actually shrank at a slower rate...
Posted on 7/25/24 at 1:01 pm to ragincajun03
quote:
Because he’s a potato
This. His mid-stage dementia had gone to far to hide anymore and it has caused him to be extremely unlikely to win. So they had to anoint a replacement.
Posted on 7/25/24 at 1:45 pm to HooDooWitch
quote:
Stop reading these propaganda rags.
I’m sorry, Mother. It won’t happen again.
Posted on 7/25/24 at 2:12 pm to Snipe
quote:
That's right, don't believe your lying eyes.
Glen Frey has entered the chat.
Posted on 7/25/24 at 2:16 pm to Snipe
quote:
That's right, don't believe your lying eyes.
It may not be so much of a lie as it is an illusion. GDP is measured in dollar sales, not numbers of units sold. With the way inflation has continued to stay sticky at/above 3%, it's very likely that the "robust" 2.8% increase represents and actual flatlining or decrease in the physical units sold. If true, then people are spending more to get less while also living in a very high debt environment.
If my theory is true, focusing on dollar sales rather than unit sales is to miss the forest for all the trees being in the way.
Posted on 7/25/24 at 2:32 pm to LafTiger
Delete.
This post was edited on 7/25/24 at 2:37 pm
Posted on 7/25/24 at 2:42 pm to ragincajun03
quote:
Robust
Posted on 7/25/24 at 2:44 pm to ragincajun03
I'm ready for the Pro-Democrat Propaganda Deluge. The way I get ready for it is to refuse to consume it.
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