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Message

U.S. Economy Grew a Robust 2.8% in Second Quarter
Posted on 7/25/24 at 9:18 am
Posted on 7/25/24 at 9:18 am
quote:
The U.S. economy accelerated in the second quarter as consumers increased their spending, businesses invested more in equipment and stocked inventories, and inflation cooled.
Gross domestic product—the value of all goods and services produced in the U.S., adjusted for inflation and seasonality—rose at an annual rate of 2.8% for April through June, the Commerce Department said Thursday. That was more than the 1.4% rate during the first quarter, and well above the 2.1% rate economists had expected before the report.
Household spending, the main driver of the U.S. economy, increased at a 2.3% rate in the second quarter, picking up from 1.5% in the first. Spending on goods increased while services spending moderated slightly.
quote:
The pickup in consumer and business spending offset negative developments such as a decline in spending on residential investment. The spring home-buying season, usually the busiest time of year for the housing market, was a dud thanks to high prices and elevated mortgage rates. Sales of existing homes declined in June for the fourth straight month, but prices hit a record, locking out many would-be buyers.
A key category of business spending picked up: Nonresidential fixed investment, reflecting spending on commercial construction, equipment and software, rose at a 5.2% rate. Capital expenditures were led by 11.6% growth in spending on equipment, while spending on structures declined.
Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the personal-consumption expenditures price index rose 2.9% in the second quarter at an annualized rate, cooling from 3.7% in the first quarter.
quote:
While the U.S. by many measures is doing well even amid high rates, and the pace of inflation has cooled, many Americans are unhappy that prices for groceries, cars and homes are so much higher than they were a few years ago.
And even though predictions of a recession have faded, there are signs of weakness.
A red-hot jobs market, which allowed millions of Americans to switch to jobs that paid more or fit them better, is starting to slow. Although the unemployment rate is still historically low, employers added jobs at a slower pace in the second quarter compared with the first.
Consumers are also facing mounting headwinds from still-high borrowing costs.
Companies are warning that consumers are increasingly tapped out. Packaged-food companies PepsiCo and Conagra Brands earlier this month reported weak quarterly results and said they see U.S. shoppers under pressure.
LINK
Posted on 7/25/24 at 9:24 am to ragincajun03
That's right, don't believe your lying eyes.
Posted on 7/25/24 at 9:27 am to ragincajun03
How long before the numbers are revised downwards and reported minimally?
Posted on 7/25/24 at 9:27 am to ragincajun03
I am sure this number will be revised down after the election.
Posted on 7/25/24 at 9:28 am to ragincajun03
Just wait until October when that number is adjusted down and no media outlet reports it.
Posted on 7/25/24 at 9:28 am to ragincajun03
Wow.
President Biden putting in work!!
Why isn't he running for reelection if things are looking so great for our economy.
President Biden putting in work!!
Why isn't he running for reelection if things are looking so great for our economy.
Posted on 7/25/24 at 9:31 am to ragincajun03
Now that you see how gone Biden is it’s obvious Kamala was the wizard behind the scenes driving the robust economy
Posted on 7/25/24 at 9:35 am to ragincajun03
I work in Supply Chain. The increase in US import volumes and all this 'demand' is not due to the economy thriving at all. It is all due to uncertainty. There is a Federal Election in November and since Trump is currently the Odds on favorite to win that means there will be significant tariffs incoming. Some commodities that we import currently have ZERO duties or tariffs due on them at all.
Let's take rubber for example.
Rubber used for medical gloves currently has a tariff of 7.5%. By 2026, that number will more than triple to 25%. If you're a glove manufacturer who gets their rubber from Borneo, you are ordering 20x, hell 50x times the amount of rubber you need currently. You're leasing warehouse space left and right in addition to your DCs because you just want to get your rubber product here, store it at whatever cost, for however long you need to. Again, your freight spend is going to increase dramatically and your shipping volumes have quadrupled. Also there is less empty, unleased warehouse floor space which helps juice up commercial real estate numbers. All these factors look great for the US economy but it's still artificial demand. You aren't bringing in that product to sell direct to manufacturers/consumers who have high high confidence in the economic outlook. Hell you may not sell it til 2027. Who is to say you even sell it to a manufacturer. Another rubber supplier will pay out of the arse for your product that is here because they didn't overorder enough and want to avoid the 25%. But that's exactly what you, as the supplier, want. The margin on everything you sell in 2027 is 2 and 3 fold because you loaded up your warehouses for 2 years and you are paying high storage costs but it's still better than paying that exorbitant tariff. I'm sure SFP or someone will jump in and say I am wrong but I am not. You don't have to have a Ph D in Economics to see what is happening.

Let's take rubber for example.
Rubber used for medical gloves currently has a tariff of 7.5%. By 2026, that number will more than triple to 25%. If you're a glove manufacturer who gets their rubber from Borneo, you are ordering 20x, hell 50x times the amount of rubber you need currently. You're leasing warehouse space left and right in addition to your DCs because you just want to get your rubber product here, store it at whatever cost, for however long you need to. Again, your freight spend is going to increase dramatically and your shipping volumes have quadrupled. Also there is less empty, unleased warehouse floor space which helps juice up commercial real estate numbers. All these factors look great for the US economy but it's still artificial demand. You aren't bringing in that product to sell direct to manufacturers/consumers who have high high confidence in the economic outlook. Hell you may not sell it til 2027. Who is to say you even sell it to a manufacturer. Another rubber supplier will pay out of the arse for your product that is here because they didn't overorder enough and want to avoid the 25%. But that's exactly what you, as the supplier, want. The margin on everything you sell in 2027 is 2 and 3 fold because you loaded up your warehouses for 2 years and you are paying high storage costs but it's still better than paying that exorbitant tariff. I'm sure SFP or someone will jump in and say I am wrong but I am not. You don't have to have a Ph D in Economics to see what is happening.
This post was edited on 7/25/24 at 10:01 am
Posted on 7/25/24 at 9:38 am to Bottom9
quote:
Why isn't he running for reelection if things are looking so great for our economy.
Because he’s a potato, and the growth in the economy has been in spite of him, sort of like growth in O&G production.
A growing economy doesn’t mean we don’t still have a chaotic border.
Posted on 7/25/24 at 9:44 am to reggierayreb
quote:
All these factors look great for the US economy but it's still artificial demand. You aren't bringing in that product to sell direct to consumers who have high high confidence in the economic outlook. Hell you may not sell it til 2027
Is what you're seeing really that wide spread? Interest rates have already forced companies to run leaner, I can't imagine a significant number of businesses stocking up 3 years in advance because of campaign promises from someone that hasn't been elected yet.
I think what is powering the economy is the same thing that's been powering it since the stimulus ended, credit cards. Every quarter we see new reports of the highest balances ever and increasing delinquency rates. The steam will probably run out of that at some point, but not today.
This post was edited on 7/25/24 at 9:48 am
Posted on 7/25/24 at 9:47 am to ragincajun03
You must have missed my sarcasm baw
Posted on 7/25/24 at 9:50 am to TigerinATL
You are 100% correct.
American consumers are using their Credit Cards way too much and that debt is ballooning out of control. It certainly is aiding demand cause from the outside it looks like consumer confidence and their amount of purchases are high. Americans really like to have things that we can't necessarily afford.

American consumers are using their Credit Cards way too much and that debt is ballooning out of control. It certainly is aiding demand cause from the outside it looks like consumer confidence and their amount of purchases are high. Americans really like to have things that we can't necessarily afford.
Posted on 7/25/24 at 9:52 am to ragincajun03
They were laughing on Fix Business this morning about how they know this number will get revised down.
Because the othe indicators aren't correlating with this number
Because the othe indicators aren't correlating with this number
Posted on 7/25/24 at 10:22 am to reggierayreb
quote:
I work in Supply Chain. The increase in US import volumes and all this 'demand' is not due to the economy thriving at all. It is all due to uncertainty. There is a Federal Election in November and since Trump is currently the Odds on favorite to win that means there will be significant tariffs incoming. Some commodities that we import currently have ZERO duties or tariffs due on them at all.
Let's take rubber for example.
Rubber used for medical gloves currently has a tariff of 7.5%. By 2026, that number will more than triple to 25%. If you're a glove manufacturer who gets their rubber from Borneo, you are ordering 20x, hell 50x times the amount of rubber you need currently. You're leasing warehouse space left and right in addition to your DCs because you just want to get your rubber product here, store it at whatever cost, for however long you need to. Again, your freight spend is going to increase dramatically and your shipping volumes have quadrupled. Also there is less empty, unleased warehouse floor space which helps juice up commercial real estate numbers. All these factors look great for the US economy but it's still artificial demand. You aren't bringing in that product to sell direct to manufacturers/consumers who have high high confidence in the economic outlook. Hell you may not sell it til 2027. Who is to say you even sell it to a manufacturer. Another rubber supplier will pay out of the arse for your product that is here because they didn't overorder enough and want to avoid the 25%. But that's exactly what you, as the supplier, want. The margin on everything you sell in 2027 is 2 and 3 fold because you loaded up your warehouses for 2 years and you are paying high storage costs but it's still better than paying that exorbitant tariff. I'm sure SFP or someone will jump in and say I am wrong but I am not. You don't have to have a Ph D in Economics to see what is happening.
I love the vegetables that downvoted your factual post. I work in supply logistics as well and can confirm. Also, as stated, odds are these #'s will be revised down in the future (as they have been for the past 4 years)
Posted on 7/25/24 at 10:23 am to jclem11
quote:
Ridin with Biden.
4 more years!
Posted on 7/25/24 at 10:39 am to ragincajun03
bullshite. They haven’t been truthful since Soetoro took office. I can’t wait for Rule230 to be abolished.
Posted on 7/25/24 at 10:45 am to ragincajun03
quote:
Why isn't he running for reelection if things are looking so great for our economy.
Because he’s a potato, and the growth in the economy has been in spite of him, sort of like growth in O&G production.
____________
Probably correct. Now do Trump.
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