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U.S. Economy Grew a Robust 2.8% in Second Quarter

Posted on 7/25/24 at 9:18 am
Posted by ragincajun03
Member since Nov 2007
29137 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 9:18 am
quote:

The U.S. economy accelerated in the second quarter as consumers increased their spending, businesses invested more in equipment and stocked inventories, and inflation cooled.

Gross domestic product—the value of all goods and services produced in the U.S., adjusted for inflation and seasonality—rose at an annual rate of 2.8% for April through June, the Commerce Department said Thursday. That was more than the 1.4% rate during the first quarter, and well above the 2.1% rate economists had expected before the report.

Household spending, the main driver of the U.S. economy, increased at a 2.3% rate in the second quarter, picking up from 1.5% in the first. Spending on goods increased while services spending moderated slightly.


quote:

The pickup in consumer and business spending offset negative developments such as a decline in spending on residential investment. The spring home-buying season, usually the busiest time of year for the housing market, was a dud thanks to high prices and elevated mortgage rates. Sales of existing homes declined in June for the fourth straight month, but prices hit a record, locking out many would-be buyers.

A key category of business spending picked up: Nonresidential fixed investment, reflecting spending on commercial construction, equipment and software, rose at a 5.2% rate. Capital expenditures were led by 11.6% growth in spending on equipment, while spending on structures declined.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the personal-consumption expenditures price index rose 2.9% in the second quarter at an annualized rate, cooling from 3.7% in the first quarter.


quote:

While the U.S. by many measures is doing well even amid high rates, and the pace of inflation has cooled, many Americans are unhappy that prices for groceries, cars and homes are so much higher than they were a few years ago.

And even though predictions of a recession have faded, there are signs of weakness.

A red-hot jobs market, which allowed millions of Americans to switch to jobs that paid more or fit them better, is starting to slow. Although the unemployment rate is still historically low, employers added jobs at a slower pace in the second quarter compared with the first.

Consumers are also facing mounting headwinds from still-high borrowing costs.

Companies are warning that consumers are increasingly tapped out. Packaged-food companies PepsiCo and Conagra Brands earlier this month reported weak quarterly results and said they see U.S. shoppers under pressure.


LINK
Posted by Snipe
Member since Nov 2015
16648 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 9:24 am to


That's right, don't believe your lying eyes.
Posted by jclem11
Chief Nihilist
Member since Nov 2011
9763 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 9:25 am to
Ridin with Biden.
Posted by bad93ex
Walnut Cove
Member since Sep 2018
36048 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 9:27 am to
How long before the numbers are revised downwards and reported minimally?
Posted by chryso
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2008
13738 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 9:27 am to
I am sure this number will be revised down after the election.
Posted by blacroix
Member since Sep 2019
561 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 9:28 am to
Just wait until October when that number is adjusted down and no media outlet reports it.
Posted by Bottom9
Arsenal Til I Die
Member since Jul 2010
25176 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 9:28 am to
Wow.

President Biden putting in work!!

Why isn't he running for reelection if things are looking so great for our economy.
Posted by el Gaucho
He/They
Member since Dec 2010
59122 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 9:31 am to
Now that you see how gone Biden is it’s obvious Kamala was the wizard behind the scenes driving the robust economy
Posted by reggierayreb
Member since Nov 2012
19684 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 9:35 am to
I work in Supply Chain. The increase in US import volumes and all this 'demand' is not due to the economy thriving at all. It is all due to uncertainty. There is a Federal Election in November and since Trump is currently the Odds on favorite to win that means there will be significant tariffs incoming. Some commodities that we import currently have ZERO duties or tariffs due on them at all.


Let's take rubber for example.
Rubber used for medical gloves currently has a tariff of 7.5%. By 2026, that number will more than triple to 25%. If you're a glove manufacturer who gets their rubber from Borneo, you are ordering 20x, hell 50x times the amount of rubber you need currently. You're leasing warehouse space left and right in addition to your DCs because you just want to get your rubber product here, store it at whatever cost, for however long you need to. Again, your freight spend is going to increase dramatically and your shipping volumes have quadrupled. Also there is less empty, unleased warehouse floor space which helps juice up commercial real estate numbers. All these factors look great for the US economy but it's still artificial demand. You aren't bringing in that product to sell direct to manufacturers/consumers who have high high confidence in the economic outlook. Hell you may not sell it til 2027. Who is to say you even sell it to a manufacturer. Another rubber supplier will pay out of the arse for your product that is here because they didn't overorder enough and want to avoid the 25%. But that's exactly what you, as the supplier, want. The margin on everything you sell in 2027 is 2 and 3 fold because you loaded up your warehouses for 2 years and you are paying high storage costs but it's still better than paying that exorbitant tariff. I'm sure SFP or someone will jump in and say I am wrong but I am not. You don't have to have a Ph D in Economics to see what is happening.




This post was edited on 7/25/24 at 10:01 am
Posted by ragincajun03
Member since Nov 2007
29137 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 9:38 am to
quote:

Why isn't he running for reelection if things are looking so great for our economy.


Because he’s a potato, and the growth in the economy has been in spite of him, sort of like growth in O&G production.

A growing economy doesn’t mean we don’t still have a chaotic border.
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
62446 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 9:44 am to
quote:

All these factors look great for the US economy but it's still artificial demand. You aren't bringing in that product to sell direct to consumers who have high high confidence in the economic outlook. Hell you may not sell it til 2027


Is what you're seeing really that wide spread? Interest rates have already forced companies to run leaner, I can't imagine a significant number of businesses stocking up 3 years in advance because of campaign promises from someone that hasn't been elected yet.

I think what is powering the economy is the same thing that's been powering it since the stimulus ended, credit cards. Every quarter we see new reports of the highest balances ever and increasing delinquency rates. The steam will probably run out of that at some point, but not today.
This post was edited on 7/25/24 at 9:48 am
Posted by Bottom9
Arsenal Til I Die
Member since Jul 2010
25176 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 9:47 am to
You must have missed my sarcasm baw
Posted by reggierayreb
Member since Nov 2012
19684 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 9:50 am to
You are 100% correct.

American consumers are using their Credit Cards way too much and that debt is ballooning out of control. It certainly is aiding demand cause from the outside it looks like consumer confidence and their amount of purchases are high. Americans really like to have things that we can't necessarily afford.

Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
66950 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 9:52 am to
They were laughing on Fix Business this morning about how they know this number will get revised down.
Because the othe indicators aren't correlating with this number
Posted by wheelr
Banned
Member since Jul 2012
6008 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 9:54 am to
Posted by ragincajun03
Member since Nov 2007
29137 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 9:58 am to
Apologies.
Posted by LafTiger
Member since Dec 2008
1677 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 10:22 am to
quote:

I work in Supply Chain. The increase in US import volumes and all this 'demand' is not due to the economy thriving at all. It is all due to uncertainty. There is a Federal Election in November and since Trump is currently the Odds on favorite to win that means there will be significant tariffs incoming. Some commodities that we import currently have ZERO duties or tariffs due on them at all.


Let's take rubber for example.
Rubber used for medical gloves currently has a tariff of 7.5%. By 2026, that number will more than triple to 25%. If you're a glove manufacturer who gets their rubber from Borneo, you are ordering 20x, hell 50x times the amount of rubber you need currently. You're leasing warehouse space left and right in addition to your DCs because you just want to get your rubber product here, store it at whatever cost, for however long you need to. Again, your freight spend is going to increase dramatically and your shipping volumes have quadrupled. Also there is less empty, unleased warehouse floor space which helps juice up commercial real estate numbers. All these factors look great for the US economy but it's still artificial demand. You aren't bringing in that product to sell direct to manufacturers/consumers who have high high confidence in the economic outlook. Hell you may not sell it til 2027. Who is to say you even sell it to a manufacturer. Another rubber supplier will pay out of the arse for your product that is here because they didn't overorder enough and want to avoid the 25%. But that's exactly what you, as the supplier, want. The margin on everything you sell in 2027 is 2 and 3 fold because you loaded up your warehouses for 2 years and you are paying high storage costs but it's still better than paying that exorbitant tariff. I'm sure SFP or someone will jump in and say I am wrong but I am not. You don't have to have a Ph D in Economics to see what is happening.



I love the vegetables that downvoted your factual post. I work in supply logistics as well and can confirm. Also, as stated, odds are these #'s will be revised down in the future (as they have been for the past 4 years)
Posted by kywildcatfanone
Wildcat Country!
Member since Oct 2012
139279 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 10:23 am to
quote:

Ridin with Biden.


4 more years!
Posted by BourreTheDog
Member since May 2016
2766 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 10:39 am to
bullshite. They haven’t been truthful since Soetoro took office. I can’t wait for Rule230 to be abolished.
Posted by KennytheTiger
bella vista ar
Member since Apr 2012
469 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 10:45 am to

quote:
Why isn't he running for reelection if things are looking so great for our economy.


Because he’s a potato, and the growth in the economy has been in spite of him, sort of like growth in O&G production.

____________

Probably correct. Now do Trump.
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