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Message
re: U.S. Economy Grew a Robust 2.8% in Second Quarter
Posted on 7/25/24 at 2:46 pm to ragincajun03
Posted on 7/25/24 at 2:46 pm to ragincajun03
Revisit this once it’s revised downward in September
0
Posted on 7/25/24 at 2:50 pm to migui8618
quote:
What's the economic impact of spending all this money up front, to not spend on tariffs down the road? Are the tariffs that prohibitive, or is it a zero sum game meant to maximize tax losses in the current year?
I have wondered the same thing but you'd need really good data to be able to answer a question like that and companies aren't openly sharing that. I'm expecting the 2.8 to quietly be adjusted down to 1.8-2.0% in a few months.
Posted on 7/25/24 at 8:00 pm to reggierayreb
quote:
I work in Supply Chain. The increase in US import volumes and all this 'demand' is not due to the economy thriving at all. It is all due to uncertainty. There is a Federal Election in November and since Trump is currently the Odds on favorite to win that means there will be significant tariffs incoming. Some commodities that we import currently have ZERO duties or tariffs due on them at all.
Let's take rubber for example.
Rubber used for medical gloves currently has a tariff of 7.5%. By 2026, that number will more than triple to 25%. If you're a glove manufacturer who gets their rubber from Borneo, you are ordering 20x, hell 50x times the amount of rubber you need currently. You're leasing warehouse space left and right in addition to your DCs because you just want to get your rubber product here, store it at whatever cost, for however long you need to. Again, your freight spend is going to increase dramatically and your shipping volumes have quadrupled. Also there is less empty, unleased warehouse floor space which helps juice up commercial real estate numbers. All these factors look great for the US economy but it's still artificial demand. You aren't bringing in that product to sell direct to manufacturers/consumers who have high high confidence in the economic outlook. Hell you may not sell it til 2027. Who is to say you even sell it to a manufacturer. Another rubber supplier will pay out of the arse for your product that is here because they didn't overorder enough and want to avoid the 25%. But that's exactly what you, as the supplier, want. The margin on everything you sell in 2027 is 2 and 3 fold because you loaded up your warehouses for 2 years and you are paying high storage costs but it's still better than paying that exorbitant tariff. I'm sure SFP or someone will jump in and say I am wrong but I am not. You don't have to have a Ph D in Economics to see what is happening.
And if kammy the commie wins, and the economy goes in the s hitter, you got more damn raw material than you know what to do with sitting in leased warehouses, scrogging your working capital all to hell, and no one's buying your product for you to burn through it.
Roll them bones.
This post was edited on 7/25/24 at 8:05 pm
Posted on 7/25/24 at 8:02 pm to ragincajun03
Well, inflation is like 20%, so of course consumer spending went up.
Posted on 7/26/24 at 11:05 am to Homesick Tiger
quote:
This is a doubled-edged sword. We love the "low" prices of these items but in the same sense we hate that we have lost jobs here in America in order to afford those low prices. Less jobs in the States means less tax revenue for the country, thus increasing taxes on those who pay them.
I say it's time to bring the jobs back home.
In a trip to Korea and Japan, I noted that there were no empty store fronts and factories. That's in stark contrast to here in many places.
I had to export jobs once 4 decades ago. Looking for someone capable of doing 65 episodes of cell animation only to find that there was only one company here that was capable and it was really crappy.
South Park was able to stay thanks to their simplicity and computer animation.
AI may open some doors in domestic production.
Posted on 7/26/24 at 11:06 am to ragincajun03
quote:
quote:
Stop reading these propaganda rags.
I’m sorry, Mother. It won’t happen again.
You gotta know what they are up to in order to defeat them.
Posted on 7/26/24 at 11:21 am to Dadren
quote:
Serious question, do you remember which ones they mentioned?
Was it durable goods was down 6%?
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