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re: The mystery of skyrocketing home prices has been solved
Posted on 7/6/26 at 7:32 am to Turnblad85
Posted on 7/6/26 at 7:32 am to Turnblad85
quote:This is pretty much the only thing keeping the UK’s total GDP propped up.
More people=more gdp=more gooder
The GDP per capita has declined, which is why the GDP per capita is lower than all 50 US states.
0
Posted on 7/6/26 at 7:33 am to fightin tigers
Recent illegals are not buying homes. They are renting though and they are renting in less desirable areas .
So much of high home prices are still an effect of the extreme buyer's market that took off during the pandemic with very low interest rates available with existing homes leading the way.
So much of high home prices are still an effect of the extreme buyer's market that took off during the pandemic with very low interest rates available with existing homes leading the way.
Posted on 7/6/26 at 7:46 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
And rent went down in 2023 and 2024, while home prices are lagging in the decline, which doesn't make sense
It makes perfect sense. Those homes either have equity, or low rates, and the landlord isn't ready to fire-sell them yet or they are mortgaged to the hilt and the owner can't reduce the price without a short sale or bringing cash to the closing.
In areas like FL, where the hedge funds are dumping homes and taking the loss, you can find some food deals, but the issue is that there are no buyers.
Nationally, we have the largest gap in buyers vs inventory than we have ever had.
You are way smarter than trying to showhorn all of this into such simplistic reasoning.
Posted on 7/6/26 at 7:53 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:May be the nicest thing you’ve said to people on here
Eliminating 30% of the increase isn't going to do much, especially with the stratification of the impact over the types of properties involved...at least for your typical demos on this site.
Posted on 7/6/26 at 7:57 am to stout
quote:
You are way smarter than trying to showhorn all of this into such simplistic reasoning.
I'm pointing out the "envelope math" doesn't make sense
Illegals should have had a much higher impact on rental price increases (which was purported 20% compared to 30% on home prices) AND rental prices should have remained more inflated prior to the Trump admin (because they are still renting those homes).
The rental market is more responsive but it also much more saturated with this specific variable (illegals).
Posted on 7/6/26 at 7:59 am to dgnx6
quote:
Housing price inflation is lower now than under Biden.
No shite the rates have remained high since the middle of the Biden admin and the lagging effects of the inflation created by Trump and Biden have subsided because we stopped printing trillions in 2021
quote:
It's crazy people like you are allowed to vote.
If there was a segregated voting class of elite thinkers, I'd be in it.
This post was edited on 7/6/26 at 8:00 am
Posted on 7/6/26 at 8:06 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
the unprecedented wave of illegal immigration between 2021 and 2024 affected local labor and housing markets.
quote:
The economists estimate unauthorized immigrant worker flows accounted for about 30% of employment growth, roughly 30% of home-price growth, and about 20% of rent growth in the average metropolitan area between March 2021 and March 2024.
Couple that with the Covid housing boom from Oct 2020 thru Aug 1, 2022 when supply chain cost experienced 8 price increases during that period. Basically, the norm was 1 price increase every January, instead we got 1 price increase every 3 months..
Posted on 7/6/26 at 8:12 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Illegals should have had a much higher impact on rental price increases (which was purported 20% compared to 30% on home prices) AND rental prices should have remained more inflated prior to the Trump admin (because they are still renting those homes).
Rents fell in 2023 and 2024 because we got a big wave of new multifamily supply during that time.
Posted on 7/6/26 at 8:24 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
We've had about 2.5M either be deported or self-deport since Jan 2025. If we're assuming 30M illegals (which is on the high end), that means 8.3% are gone.
There were an estimated 10-15 million come in during the Biden admin alone. Thats on top of the 30 million number that we’ve been told is accurate for the last 30 years (it’s almost certainly more). Using the low end of those numbers, that’s only 6% who have gone. Not really a definition of “mass deportations”.
Posted on 7/6/26 at 8:24 am to stout
I'm not disagreeing. That's just showing another variable (supply) with clearly more of an impact.
Interest rates
Inflation
Supply chain disruptions/material increases
Supply factors
etc.
All clearly are more impactful than the illegal population #s.
Interest rates
Inflation
Supply chain disruptions/material increases
Supply factors
etc.
All clearly are more impactful than the illegal population #s.
Posted on 7/6/26 at 8:25 am to upgrayedd
quote:
There were an estimated 10-15 million come in during the Biden admin alone. T
That absurdly high number is how you get to the absurdly high 30M
quote:
Thats on top of the 30 million number that we’ve been told is accurate for the last 30 years
That's silliness.
quote:
it’s almost certainly more
It's almost certainly a lot less than 30M
Posted on 7/6/26 at 8:27 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
That absurdly high number is how you get to the absurdly high 30M
I get you’re trying to win an argument on the internet, but you’re completely wrong like I said, we’ve been hearing that 30 million number for the last 30 years.
quote:
That's silliness.
It’s not
quote:
It's almost certainly a lot less than 30M
It’s not.
Posted on 7/6/26 at 8:29 am to SlowFlowPro
Like what? 20 million? 15?
What number is Slopes formula computing?
What number is Slopes formula computing?
Posted on 7/6/26 at 8:29 am to upgrayedd
quote:
I get you’re trying to win an argument on the internet, but you’re completely wrong
There is no serious study/data that indicates anywhere close to the numbers you're using.
Posted on 7/6/26 at 8:32 am to SuperSaint
quote:
What number is Slopes formula computing?
It's not my formula. What I found looking at this, this morning (I knew it would come up) was the best data we have estimates a peak of 14M in 2023.
I did read this funny article form Cato also - What If There Were More than 30 Million Illegal Immigrants?
quote:
If there were 20 million more illegal immigrants in 2023, the nationwide incarceration rate for illegal immigrants would be 272 per 100,000, about 15 percent below that of legal immigrants, and almost 80 percent below the native-born rate. This would make illegal immigrants the most law-abiding subpopulation in the United States by nativity. If applied uniformly across illegal immigrant racial and ethnic groups, it would mean that the Asian illegal immigrant incarceration rate would be over 13 times lower than that of native-born white individuals.
Assuming a uniform geographic distribution, an illegal immigrant population of more than 30 million would also lower the Texas illegal immigrant criminal conviction rate for homicide from 3.1 per 100,000 in 2022 to 1.3, about a third of the native-born American rate and 28 percent below that of legal immigrants. But if more of the recent claimed massive increase in illegal immigrants was concentrated in Texas, which seems likely because it’s a border state, then the rate would be even lower.
Illegal immigrants look like they have a homicide conviction rate in Texas lower than that of Europeans in Europe.
Posted on 7/6/26 at 8:32 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
All clearly are more impactful than the illegal population #s.
FWIW I agree with you that trying to assign a specific % of the blame on illegals is a stupid way to approach the topic.
Obviously, illegals impact the market, but their impact is going to vary by concentration levels in specific areas. The same with H1B Indians buying homes.
Trying to act like those have a greater impact on the national market than bad overall policy is ignorant and passing the blame.
Posted on 7/6/26 at 8:34 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
We have had 1.5 years of mass deportations, detentions, and self-deportations. Have we seen a correlative drop in housing prices?
Google "asymmetric price transmission" or "rocket and feather effect."
Posted on 7/6/26 at 8:34 am to stout
quote:
Trying to act like those have a greater impact on the national market than bad overall policy is ignorant and passing the blame.
Correct.
Darth's self immolation a few pages ago should have ended the thread
Posted on 7/6/26 at 8:56 am to SlowFlowPro
Makes sense since Kamala voters would say it’s racist to incarcerate an illegal that raped their daughter
Posted on 7/6/26 at 9:14 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
There is no serious study/data that indicates anywhere close to the numbers you're using.
Every major to mid sized city across the country has a sizable population of illegals. Even many small towns have illegal communities. Maybe you should get out of your bubble and see it for yourself.
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