re: The mystery of skyrocketing home prices has been solved

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Add one more area of expertise to your repertoire.

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Just as Darth doesn't understand 30% of an increase =/= a 30% increase, you don't understand expertise =/= conversational competency.

Shocker

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The paper uses data from 2021-2024 I used data from 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 Which used more years? I count 4:

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Speaking of data….


^ there is the real reason you chose to use 2023 as the benchmark for your claim of falling rent rates.

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We have had 1.5 years of mass deportations, detentions, and self-deportations. Have we seen a correlative drop in housing prices?

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How many do you think came in vs how many deported?

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I'd love to see what the other 70% of the increase was.

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If I had to guess I'd say the devaluation of the dollar during the same time period. Reduced everyone's spending power.

FYI, this is just one of the things Biden did that helped send home prices through the roof.

Another one that doesn’t get talked about enough is how long Biden kept stretching out forbearance, mortgage relief, and all the loss-mitigation stuff after COVID. He basically froze the natural cycle of the market for six years. Forbearance started under Trump during COVID and didn’t end until last year, when Trump stopped it.

Biden didn’t want a housing correction happening on his watch, so instead of letting distress actually work through the system, he just kept kicking the can down the road.

That’s why pointing to one thing and trying to say “this caused the 30% increase” is dumb. Housing bubbles don’t happen because of one policy. It’s years of bad policy, cheap money, restricted supply, government intervention, and people acting like prices can only go up all piling on top of each other.

It’s the same type of thinking from people who say I was wrong for saying the market was going to correct because I pointed this stuff out years ago on here. None of this stuff happens overnight. These cycles take years to build. Bad policy can delay the correction, but it doesn’t make it disappear.

The only question now is what Trump does to try to kick the can down the road, because he definitely will. He has Pulte of Pulte Homes as Director of the FHFA overseeing Fannie and Freddie. Pulte is going to try to keep mortgage credit flowing and keep the whole thing chugging along instead of letting the market fully reset.

And don’t forget, they also want to make Fannie and Freddie private again. That’s a big part of why they have every reason to keep kicking the can down the road. They’re not going to take them private in the middle of a correction. They need the market to look stable so the incentive is to delay the reset, not let it happen naturally.

The subprime crash happened in 2008, but the reality is that it was set in motion with the revision of the CRA in 1995. Our peak damage of the subprime crash was in 2010, and the recovery started soon after. We are about as far away from recovery now as we were from the CRA revision back then.

It’s called cycles for a reason. The bad decisions happen years before the crash, and by the time everyone finally admits there’s a problem, the correction is already baked in. Realize where we are and where I have been telling this board for around 2 years now we were heading.

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JFC you have to be a special kind of brain dead dipshit to believe a NY Post article claiming home prices went up to crazy levels b/c of illegal immigration when all the fricking housing and rental properties were being bought up en masse giant arse private equity funded companies that the average buyer can't compete with in a bidding war.

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1. Again, too many of you are trying to point to one issue as the main driver of prices. Doing this while calling someone else dumb is irony at it's finest

2. Why do you think those funds were buying rental properties in the first place? Rising rental prices created the incentive. Rising rental prices were caused by shortages due to the influx of illegals. Increased demand pushed rents higher, which made these properties more attractive to funds, even at inflated prices. That is basic cause and effect.

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Have we seen a correlative decrease in housing prices since January 2025?

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There is no national market. No company that tracks RE data does it that way outside of doing it for headlines. CoreLogic, NAR, ATTOM, etc. all track down to zip codes if you want to get real technical.

The more accurate question and data set would be to find which cities have had the most deportations and self-deportations, then compare them to rental and home price drops.

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But a liberal will try to spin a wild tale of it being Trumps fault.

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Do you think his Covid-era policies had no impact on home prices?

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There is no national market. No company that tracks RE data does it that way outside of doing it for headlines. CoreLogic, NAR, ATTOM, etc. all track down to zip codes if you want to get real technical.

The more accurate question and data set would be to find which cities have had the most deportations and self-deportations, then compare them to rental and home price drops.

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I don't disagree, but the premise in OP is based on national data

*ETA: that's possibly a bigger issue with the report's findings than the 20% and 30% figures being "envelope math"