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The mystery of skyrocketing home prices has been solved

Posted on 7/5/26 at 6:36 pm
Posted by Darth_Vader
A galaxy far, far away
Member since Dec 2011
74152 posts
Posted on 7/5/26 at 6:36 pm
The high cost of buying or renting a home is a reoccurring topic of discussion here.

Who could have seen this coming?

quote:

Buden’s illegal immigration surge triggered 30% rise in home prices, $ 20% in rents, Fed paper finds


quote:

A new Federal Reserve working paper found the record surge in illegal immigration during the Biden administration triggered higher home prices and rents.


quote:

The paper, published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, combines immigration court records with government administrative data to measure how the unprecedented wave of illegal immigration between 2021 and 2024 affected local labor and housing markets.


quote:

Researchers found the influx of illegal immigrants boosted employment with little measurable effect on wages but significantly increased housing demand.


quote:

The economists estimate unauthorized immigrant worker flows accounted for about 30% of employment growth, roughly 30% of home-price growth, and about 20% of rent growth in the average metropolitan area between March 2021 and March 2024.



NY Post
Posted by Recognizable Poster
Geaux Tigers
Member since Mar 2026
889 posts
Posted on 7/5/26 at 6:36 pm to
Let's Go Brandon, amirite?
Posted by W2NOMO
Member since Jul 2025
2773 posts
Posted on 7/5/26 at 6:38 pm to
No freakin surprise to most of us…supply/demand much? But a liberal will try to spin a wild tale of it being Trumps fault.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
479936 posts
Posted on 7/5/26 at 6:39 pm to
We have had 1.5 years of mass deportations, detentions, and self-deportations. Have we seen a correlative drop in housing prices?
Posted by Joshjrn
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2008
33076 posts
Posted on 7/5/26 at 6:40 pm to
quote:

Buden’s illegal immigration surge triggered 30% rise in home prices, $ 20% in rents, Fed paper finds

!=
quote:

The economists estimate unauthorized immigrant worker flows accounted for about 30% of employment growth, roughly 30% of home-price growth, and about 20% of rent growth in the average metropolitan area between March 2021 and March 2024.


If one assumes the paper is true, being responsible for 30% of the overall growth is nothing to sneeze at, but that’s significantly different from being responsible for growth of 30%.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
479936 posts
Posted on 7/5/26 at 6:46 pm to
quote:

If one assumes the paper is true, being responsible for 30% of the overall growth is nothing to sneeze at, but that’s significantly different from being responsible for growth of 30%.

Consider the source and it's not shocking.

Eliminating 30% of the increase isn't going to do much, especially with the stratification of the impact over the types of properties involved...at least for your typical demos on this site.
Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
79173 posts
Posted on 7/5/26 at 6:47 pm to
Why did they skyrocket in the years before Obama Trump and Biden?
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
479936 posts
Posted on 7/5/26 at 6:48 pm to
National rent prices decreased in 2023 and 2024
Posted by chryso
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2008
13825 posts
Posted on 7/5/26 at 6:48 pm to
quote:

Have we seen a correlative drop in housing prices?

Much like gasoline, housing prices are a lot slower to go down than go up.
Posted by Tiger Ryno
#WoF
Member since Feb 2007
108562 posts
Posted on 7/5/26 at 6:49 pm to
Biden can rot in hades. frick him.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
479936 posts
Posted on 7/5/26 at 6:50 pm to
I'd love to see what the other 70% of the increase was.
Posted by Darth_Vader
A galaxy far, far away
Member since Dec 2011
74152 posts
Posted on 7/5/26 at 6:50 pm to
In this thread we have SFP pretending he knows more about the economy than the actual economists working for the Federal Reserve.

You’re making a complete arse of yourself, as you do on a daily basis, but you’re too stupid to realize it.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
479936 posts
Posted on 7/5/26 at 6:52 pm to
quote:

In this thread we have SFP pretending he knows more about the economy than the actual economists working for the Federal Reserve.


No

I know more than the New York Post writer.

quote:

You’re making a complete arse of yourself, as you do on a daily basis, but you’re too stupid to realize it.

You don't even understand what is being discussed
Posted by BHTiger
Charleston
Member since Dec 2017
9430 posts
Posted on 7/5/26 at 6:53 pm to
That is a huge price of it


So is the avg person wants a starter home to be 3000 sq ft for 2 people. They dont seem to make a rance 1400 3bd/2bath anymore
Posted by Porter Osborne Jr
Member since Sep 2012
43988 posts
Posted on 7/5/26 at 6:53 pm to
quote:

National rent prices decreased in 2023 and 2024


Where do you see this?
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
479936 posts
Posted on 7/5/26 at 6:57 pm to
quote:

Where do you see this?


2024

quote:

In December 2024, the US median asking rent continued to decline month-over-month for the seventeenth consecutive month. The national median rent was $1,695 in December, down $8 (0.5%) from November 2024 and $18 (1.1%) from December 2023 across the 50 largest metropolitan areas in the country.

Though the rent declines over the past year and five months have been consistent, they haven’t amounted to major relief from the peak level reached in July 2022. December’s figure is just 3.7% below that all-time high and still 16.0% above the mark from December 2019. The rental market has stabilized since the rapid increases of 2021-2022 faster than the for-sale market, in which listing prices just took their first significant step back this month.


2023

2025

quote:

Apartment rents continued their slide into the new year, as fresh supply still makes its way through the market, and landlords strive to gain pricing power over a struggling consumer.

The national median rent in January was $1,353, a drop of 1.4% compared with one year ago, according to Apartment List. This is now the fourth consecutive winter with a “pronounced” offseason dip, and is the largest annual drop since September 2023 and the lowest January rent since 2022. Rents are now 6.2% lower than their last peak in the summer of 2022.


The peak for rental prices was 2022, similar to the crime spike that subsequently fell.

It's more efficient to rent than buy housing in most markets now. It's a big imbalance.
This post was edited on 7/5/26 at 6:58 pm
Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
79173 posts
Posted on 7/5/26 at 6:58 pm to
quote:

National rent prices decreased in 2023 and 2024


Great point in a thread about home prices........
Posted by Darth_Vader
A galaxy far, far away
Member since Dec 2011
74152 posts
Posted on 7/5/26 at 6:58 pm to
quote:

You don't even understand what is being discussed


See, that’s your problem. You’re so high on the smell of your own farts that you think you’re smarter than everyone else.


And what’s being discussed is one of the most simple principles of economics, namely the principle of supply and demand.
Posted by SquatchDawg
Cohutta Wilderness
Member since Sep 2012
20400 posts
Posted on 7/5/26 at 6:59 pm to
quote:

Why did they skyrocket in the years before Obama Trump and Biden?


Years of zero interest rates screwed the housing market and most everything else you can buy with credit.

2008 to 2015. Look at what happened to median home prices during this period. The Fed should’ve normalized rates by 2010 at the latest.
Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
79173 posts
Posted on 7/5/26 at 7:01 pm to
quote:

2008 to 2015. Look at what happened to median home prices during this period. The Fed should’ve normalized rates by 2010 at the latest


Banks needed to think about the shareholder.

It works great if you are a responsible person trying to buy a house. It just fricks us all 9 ways till Sunday on the price of everything else.

Takes a lot more per month to insure your 100k house at its now 250k worth.
This post was edited on 7/5/26 at 7:02 pm
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