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Message
re: The mystery of skyrocketing home prices has been solved
Posted on 7/5/26 at 7:01 pm to Darth_Vader
Posted on 7/5/26 at 7:01 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
See, that’s your problem. You’re so high on the smell of your own farts that you think you’re smarter than everyone else.
And what’s being discussed is one of the most simple principles of economics, namely the principle of supply and demand.
You're proving my point.
Nobody is arguing illegal immigration didn't impact prices.
You think they increased prices 30% when that's not what the data show. Misunderstanding #1
Then you didn't properly understand me pointing out the idiotic/dishonest writing (that fooled people like you) wasn't a criticism of the fed report itself.
This conversation is beyond your abilities.
1
Posted on 7/5/26 at 7:04 pm to Darth_Vader
Now combine it with HUD giving cash to the illegals to buy homes and apartments weeeeellllllll above their tax brackets. That's a big reason why home prices in California went bonkers - the imported Indians scumbags came in and were buying homes in the middle/upper middle class neighborhoods all thanks to state and federal government paying them to invade. Take a ride up CA-99 from Bakersfield to Sacramento and count how many billboards are in foreign languageS. Plural.
Posted on 7/5/26 at 7:06 pm to Darth_Vader
So if the price increased with the increase of illegals then if the population of illegals decrease because they are catching them and punting them out the prices should go down right?
Im joking.. Gas is the only resource in which the price fluctuates.
Darth, I have a guess about the models you put together, but I am going to bump up a random thread and ask you in there so I am not high jacking threads.
Im joking.. Gas is the only resource in which the price fluctuates.
Darth, I have a guess about the models you put together, but I am going to bump up a random thread and ask you in there so I am not high jacking threads.
Posted on 7/5/26 at 7:06 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
You think they increased prices 30% when that's not what the data show. Misunderstanding #1 Then you didn't properly understand me pointing out the idiotic/dishonest writing (that fooled people like you) wasn't a criticism of the fed report itself. This conversation is beyond your abilities.
Do you think I wrote the paper? You’re attacking personally as though I wrote it.
And speaking of the paper, you’ve been shitting on it now since I started the thread. But have you even read the paper?
No you haven’t. You haven’t seen the data they based the paper on? You know nothing more about this paper than what is contained in the article I posted. You’re attacking for no other reason than you don’t like what it says from a political standpoint. You try to pass yourself off as some sort of intellectual, really you’re nothing more than a political ideologue. What’s embarrassing is you’re too stupid to realize we all see it.
This post was edited on 7/5/26 at 7:09 pm
Posted on 7/5/26 at 7:11 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
Great point in a thread about home prices........
The report ties them both together
quote:
At the same time, these inflows raised local house prices and rents, with little evidence of
increases in housing supply. Thus, while the influx of these immigrant workers acted as a
positive supply shock to local labor markets, it acted simultaneously as a demand shock to
local housing markets, boosting rents given relatively inelastic short-run housing supply.
quote:
We then turn to the effects of unauthorized immigration on the broader local economy,
focusing in particular on the housing market. We start by estimating the effects on house
prices, rents, and new housing supply. First, we find that during the boom period an increase
in unauthorized immigrant worker flows equal to 1% of a local area’s initial employment
increased local house prices by 2.2% and increased local rents by 1.4%. The impact on rents
is slightly smaller for single-family units and slightly larger for multi-family units. These
magnitudes are similar to those found by Saiz (2007) based on legal immigration over the
1985-1998 period. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that UIWF can explain about
30% of the total growth in house prices and 20% of total growth in rents over the boom period
for the average local market.
Rents were 20%, but as you see that's "back of the envelope" calculation (so not really scientific)
But the fact rents decreased in 2023 and 2024, prior to Trump's border/immigration policies, paints a complicated picture.
Posted on 7/5/26 at 7:12 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
Do you think I wrote the paper? You’re attacking personally as though I wrote it.
I'm not attacking you. I'm explaining you and the NYP writer don't understand it.
quote:
And speaking of the paper, you’ve been shitting on it now since I started the thread. But have you even read the paper?
No you haven’t. You haven’t seen the data they based the paper on? You know nothing more about this paper than what is contained in the article I posted.
Again, this conversation is beyond your capabilities.
Posted on 7/5/26 at 7:12 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
In this thread we have SFP pretending he knows more about the economy than the actual economists working for the Federal Reserve.
You’re making a complete arse of yourself, as you do on a daily basis, but you’re too stupid to realize it.
So we can trust these economists? Since their paper supports your narrative? But if it's a paper that disproves your narrative, you wouldn't post it or you'd ridicule them as being people with no real world experience in anything.
You're getting pissy at an internet poster who isn't really disagreeing with the paper all that much, but simply debating a point here or there.
GD, some of you Trumpettes are more tender than a newborn's skin.
Posted on 7/5/26 at 7:14 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
But the fact rents decreased in 2023 and 2024, prior to Trump's border/immigration policies, paints a complicated picture.
Their paper deals in data going back to 2021. Why’d you leave out 2021 and 2022 and instead cherry picked 2023 as a start point?
Posted on 7/5/26 at 7:15 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
Their paper deals in data going back to 2021. Why’d you leave out 2021 and 2022 and instead cherry picked 2023 as a start point?
If you don't know why, you're showing you're not capable of productively participating in this conversation. It's not complicated (and has been referentially explained ITT).
Posted on 7/5/26 at 7:16 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
We have had 1.5 years of mass deportations, detentions, and self-deportations. Have we seen a correlative drop in housing prices
We have never had mass deportations
Posted on 7/5/26 at 7:18 pm to Darth_Vader
JFC you have to be a special kind of brain dead dipshit to believe a NY Post article claiming home prices went up to crazy levels b/c of illegal immigration when all the fricking housing and rental properties were being bought up en masse giant arse private equity funded companies that the average buyer can't compete with in a bidding war.
This post was edited on 7/5/26 at 7:20 pm
Posted on 7/5/26 at 7:18 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
But the fact rents decreased in 2023 and 2024
Wonder if any other economic factors were going on then that makes this a futile effort to determine over a short term.
Posted on 7/5/26 at 7:19 pm to Darth_Vader
the NY Post misspelling a president's last name is wild, even for them!
Posted on 7/5/26 at 7:19 pm to upgrayedd
quote:
We have never had mass deportations
We've had about 2.5M either be deported or self-deport since Jan 2025.
If we're assuming 30M illegals (which is on the high end), that means 8.3% are gone.
Have we seen a correlative decrease in housing prices since January 2025?
Posted on 7/5/26 at 7:20 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
Wonder if any other economic factors were going on then that makes this a futile effort to determine over a short term.
No need to wonder
Even the report notes the 20 and 30% numbers aren't scientific
*ETA: and even if they're correct, we're missing 70-80% of the causes
This post was edited on 7/5/26 at 7:21 pm
Posted on 7/5/26 at 7:20 pm to upgrayedd
quote:
We have never had mass deportations
Posted on 7/5/26 at 7:21 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
If you don't know why, you're showing you're not capable of productively participating in this conversation. It's not complicated (and has been referentially explained ITT).
I know why. You’re comparing apples to oranges by cherry picking a two year window of data, because if you did an apples to apples comparison of the same years of data as was used in the Federal Reserve paper, it would show you’re full of shite.
You can’t make an intelligent argument, all you have is your petty insults. Some “intellectual” you are.
Posted on 7/5/26 at 7:22 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Consider the source and it's not shocking. Eliminating 30% of the increase isn't going to do much, especially with the stratification of the impact over the types of properties involved...at least for your typical demos on this site.
Add one more area of expertise to your repertoire. Lawyer, MD, sex trafficking expert, and now home sales/values. LOL
This post was edited on 7/5/26 at 7:22 pm
Posted on 7/5/26 at 7:22 pm to SlowFlowPro
You know the economy doesn't work like that. If you need a lesson I'll gladly teach you
Posted on 7/5/26 at 7:22 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
I know why. You’re comparing apples to oranges by cherry picking a two year window of data, because if you did an apples to apples comparison of the same years of data as was used in the Federal Reserve paper, it would show you’re full of shite.
The paper uses data from 2021-2024
I used data from 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025
Which used more years?
I count 4:4
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